tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-66157165565406867032024-03-02T23:43:45.662-05:00Wilf Day's BlogWilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.comBlogger137125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-66997660372618609962024-03-02T23:42:00.003-05:002024-03-02T23:42:44.732-05:00Brian Mulroney`s Legacy was crippled by First-Past-The-Post<p>The late Brian Mulroney`s legacy
was crippled by Canada`s disastrous 1993 election, when his 1988 majority
collapsed to 2 seats under Kim Campbell, who deserved better.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">But wait a minute. In 1993 the Bloc
Quebecois got only 13.5% of the vote, standing in fourth place, yet formed the
Official Opposition with 54 seats. At the same time Kim Campbell`s PCs got 16.0%
worth only 2 seats, while Reform got 18.7% of the votes but its 52 seats left
it short of the Bloc. Was this election rigged?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Yes, by First Past The Post. A few years later, beginning in
2001 the Law Commission of Canada under Prof. Nathalie Des Rosiers took a look
at that result. In their 2004 <a href="https://publications.gc.ca/collections/Collection/J31-61-2004E.pdf">Report
``Voting Counts``</a> they noted Prof. Henry Milner`s conclusion: after the
1997 federal election “the results of Canada’s last two federal elections are
becoming political science textbook cases of the distortions under
[first-past-the-post].” “The first-past-the-post electoral system, with its two
dominant parties, appeared unable to accommodate the pressures of reg<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ionalism.”
<span style="background: #F6F6F6; color: black;">Our winner-take-all voting system
exaggerates Canada’s regional differences</span>.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">So what would the results have been under proportional representation
on the votes cast in 1993, calculated province-by-province, with a 5% threshold
in each province, and three extra MPs for the Territories? Liberals 131, Reform
58, PCs 51, Bloc 39, NDP 19, total 298. The Liberals would have had no artificial
majority, needing NDP support. The Leader of the Opposition would have been
Preston Manning, not Lucien Bouchard.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Law Commission in 2004 recommended Canada adopt a Mixed
Member Proportional system, as used in Germany, Scotland and New Zealand but
with open regional lists. “Two-thirds of the members of the House of Commons
should be elected in constituency races using first-past-the-post (in larger
ridings, three ridings becoming two), and the remaining one-third should be
elected from regional party lists” to top-up the results by a flexible list
system that provides voters with the option of either endorsing the party list
or of voting for a candidate within the list. In addition, one top-up seat each
should be allotted to Nunavut, Northwest Territories, and Yukon.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">As for the 1993 PCs, instead of
Jean Charest being one of only two MPs, he and Kim Campbell would have had
company, under no pressure to merge with Reform. These names will bring back
memories of the end of the Mulroney era: <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">18 MPs from Ontario (maybe Ministers
Perrin Beatty, Rob Nicholson, Tom Hockin, Doug Lewis, Garth Turner, Paul Dick, and
Pauline Browes, maybe former Speaker John Bosley, and maybe David MacDonald, Barbara
Greene, Patrick Boyer, Bill Attewell and Alan Redway); <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">9 more MPs from Quebec (maybe
Ministers Gilles Loiselle, Pierre Blais, Gerry Weiner, Monique Landry, Jean
Corbeil, and Pierre Vincent, and maybe Deputy Speaker <span style="background: white; color: #202122; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Andrée
Champagne and</span><b><span style="background: white; color: #202122; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></b>Jean-Pierre
Blackburn); <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">5 MPs from BC (Kim Campbell, and
maybe Ministers Tom Siddon and Mary Collins);<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">4 MPs from Alberta (maybe Ministers
Jim Edwards and Bobbie Sparrow, and Lee Richardson and Jim Hawkes);<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">3 MPs from Nova Scotia (Maybe
Minister Peter McCreath, and maybe Bill Casey);<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">2 more MPs from New Brunswick
(maybe Minister Bernard Valcourt)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">2 MPs from Manitoba (maybe
Minister Charles Mayer, and maybe Dorothy Dobbie);<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">2 MPs from Saskatchewan (maybe
Minister Larry Schneider);<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">2 MPs from Newfoundland and
Labrador (maybe Minister Ross Reid); and 1 MP from PEI, and 1 MP from Nunavut.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">How would regional MPs serve residents? See <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2013/05/how-do-regional-mps-manage-to-serve.html" target="_blank">how it worked
in Scotland</a> in 2013. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">The MMP ballot would look like<a href="https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thetelegram.com%2Fmedia%2Fphotologue%2Fphotos%2Fcache%2Fmmp-ballot-3156305_large.jpg&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thetelegram.com%2Fnews%2Fregional%2Fprince-edward-islanders-choose-mmpr-in-electoral-reform-plebiscite-16551%2F&docid=uwblVZrdAnfH-M&tbnid=Sq8X0n0ymxi6VM%3A&vet=10ahUKEwjmr46X0ZnkAhVLT98KHeE6DOYQMwilAShVMFU..i&w=800&h=535&itg=1&bih=920&biw=1904&q=pei%20plebiscite%202016%20ballot&ved=0ahUKEwjmr46X0ZnkAhVLT98KHeE6DOYQMwilAShVMFU&iact=mrc&uact=8" target="_blank"> </a><a href="https://i.cbc.ca/1.3811524.1476882686!/fileImage/httpImage/mmp-ballot.png" target="_blank">this ballot that PEI voters chose</a> in their 2016
plebiscite, unlike the closed-list MMP model Ontario voters <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2011/10/did-ontarians-reject-province-wide.html" target="_blank">did not support</a> in 2007. The open-regional-list
mixed-member model is used in the German province of Bavaria.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><u>You have two votes</u>.
One is for your local MP. The second helps elect regional MPs for the
top-up seats. All MPs have faced the voters. No one is guaranteed a
seat. The region is small enough that the regional MPs are
accountable. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><u><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Competing MPs</span></u><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">: You
have a local MP who will champion your community, and at least four
competing regional MPs, normally including one whose views best reflect your
values, someone you helped elect in your local district or local region.</span> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">The Jenkins Commission in the
UK had a colourful explanation accurately predicting why closed
lists would be rejected in Canada: additional members locally anchored are
“more easily assimilable into the political culture and indeed the
Parliamentary system than would be a flock of unattached birds clouding the sky
and wheeling under central party directions.” </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Of course, <i>this is only a simulation.</i> In any
election, as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3guVBhKmDc" target="_blank">Prof. Dennis Pilon says</a>: "Now keep in mind that,
when you change the voting system, you also change the incentives that affect
the kinds of decisions that voters might make. For instance, we know that, when
every vote counts, voters won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or
casting a strategic vote. Thus, we should expect that support for
different parties might chang<span style="background: #F6F6F6; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">e."</span><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"> NDP voters would not have switched to the Liberals to stop
Reform. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></p>Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-58519358988489811582023-08-17T19:29:00.003-04:002023-08-18T17:17:48.812-04:00Does Canada need a new Centre Party?<p> <span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Two
prominent “Blue Liberals” wrote June 30 “</span><a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-where-is-the-purple-party/" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Where
is the Purple Party</a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">?</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">John
Manley is a former deputy prime minister. Martha Hall Findlay is a former MP
who ran for the Liberal leadership. They wrote “As former Conservative leader
Erin O’Toole </span><a href="https://www.ourcommons.ca/DocumentViewer/en/44-1/house/sitting-211/hansard#Int-12283684" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;" target="_blank">pointed out </a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">in his</span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yayAjXlSS-Y" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;" target="_blank"> final
speech</a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> in the House of Commons: “Canada has been slowing down at a
time when the world is asking us to speed up.” Former Liberal finance minister
Bill Morneau stressed this same concern about Canada dramatically falling
behind and not achieving its potential in his recent book, Where To From
Here. “. . . many Canadians might now be responsive to a more centrist
approach, perhaps a “radical centre.” “What is needed is openness to ideas
unconstrained by the labels of “right” and “left,” working instead on moving
forward. We and a good number of other Canadians have, over the years, joked in
asking, “Where is the Purple Party?” Not in the middle, but taking the best
from the “red,” and the best from the “blue.”</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Of
course, the winner-take-all First Past The Post system discourages any third
parties.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">However,
making every vote count with proportional representation has allowed centrist
governments in Europe. Germany has six parties: the governing centre-left
coalition excludes the Left Party and the two conservative parties, but
includes the centrist liberal Free Democrats.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">In the
16 German states, ten have centrist coalition governments. The national three-party
left-centre coalition is in power in Rhineland-Palatinate, while a three-party Grand
Coalition (Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and Free Democrats) governs Saxony-Anhalt.
In seven states the centrist coalition is a Grand Coalition of Christian
Democrats and Social Democrats and/or Greens. In Bavaria the centrist Free
Voters are in the governing coalition That leaves two states with a Social
Democrat-Green coalition, one state with a Social Democrat one-party
government, and three states where the Left Party is part of the governing
coalition; but nowhere is the hard-right AfD in cabinet. </span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">It's
not just Germany. After last year’s election in Denmark, the governing Social
Democrats decided to form a centrist coalition of the three largest parties,
the other two being the centre-right liberals and the centrist Moderates.
Austria has a conservative-Green coalition government.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">By
contrast, look at the one country where a new centrist party tried to beat the
odds by taking power in a winner-take-all system: Macron’s party in France. By
a fluke, he did, once.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">The
2012 election for the French National Assembly, using a winner-take-all
two-round system, followed the victory of Socialist Party candidate François
Hollande as President, defeating incumbent conservative Nicolas Sarkozy. The
Socialist Party and allies won 58% of the seats, while the conservatives won
40%. Rightist Marine Le Pen’s National Front won 14% in the first round but few
of its candidates advanced to the second round and only two won seats. Jean-Luc
Mélenchon’s Left Front got only 7% in the first round and won only 10 seats.
Both Le Pen and Mélenchon were defeated.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Centrist
François Bayrou had run third for President with 19% in 2007, but ran fifth in
2012 with only 9%, and in the National Assembly election his party got less
than 2% and only 2 seats. A total two-party environment.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">But in
2016 Emmanuel Macron, a minister in Hollande’s Socialist government, resigned
to launch his own new centrist movement to support his presidential campaign. Centrist
François Bayrou announced support for Macron.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Luckily
for Macron, incumbent François Hollande had become so unpopular that he did not
seek re-election in 2017. Hollande’s candidate Manuel Valls was defeated for nomination
as the Socialist Party candidate by his left-wing rival Benoit Hamon, but Mélenchon
out-shone him. Also boosting Macron’s campaign was the scandal of the moderate conservative
(Republican) candidate François Fillon, who won his party’s primary but the
national financial prosecutor then placed him under formal investigation for
misuse of public funds and fraud, for putting his wife and children on the
payroll. Marine Le Pen became the strongest conservative candidate, and the
vote for the first round was Macron 24%, Le Pen 21%, Fillon 20%, Mélenchon
19.6%, and Hamon only 6.4%. For the second round, to stop Le Pen both Fillon
and Hamon supported Macron who got 66% of the vote.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">But
Macron’s project had no roots. In 2021 in the 12 Regional Council elections the
winning traditional parties in 2015 all retained control in 2021: moderate
conservatives in seven regions, Socialists and their allies in five regions. Macron’s
centrists got only 11% overall, ranging from 11.1% to 16.6% of the votes in 8
regions, while in 3 they were under 10%. In those 11 regions they were shut out
of positions in the cabinets of the regional government. In only one region
were they part of a grand coalition with moderate conservatives against Le Pen.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">And Macron’s project failed
to show enough staying power. in the 2022 election Macron lost his majority, getting
only 245 seats. The new Left Alliance got 153 seats, Le Pen 89, moderate
conservatives 64, others 26. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p>Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-89615493383543209442023-03-25T04:52:00.004-04:002023-03-26T23:33:37.981-04:00A first incremental step to proportionality in 2025, along with a Citizens Assembly.<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Will
the Liberals accept the NDP motion for a Citizens Assembly on Electoral Reform?
Well, for two weeks they filibustered the NDP motion for Katie Telford to be questioned.
But when Jagmeet stood his ground “very firmly” the Liberals blinked, showing the
Liberal-NDP confidence and supply agreement was solid. The Liberal MPs on the
PROC Committee already voted for a Citizens Assembly on Electoral Reform. They should
be expected to do so again.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Now
that the CASA agreement seems on track to continue to 2025, the next election
will likely be under the new Boundaries, which apply to any election called
after April 2024, more or less.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">A Citizens
Assembly on Electoral Reform will be no help in a 2025 election. Could the Liberals
accept an additional element: a small first step? The NDP and Greens already
offered this option in their Supplementary Opinion to the ERRE Report: “The
government could decide to take an incremental approach by adding regional
compensatory MPs in groups of 30-45 over the next three or four elections.”</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The
Liberals don’t want to risk the Conservatives getting unbridled power without a
majority of votes. The Conservatives similarly don’t want the Liberals to have
unbridled power without a majority of votes. An incremental step would give Parliament
more diverse voices, give voters more choices, reduce toxic partisanship, and reflect
the democratic value of making every vote count, to a limited extent.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The new
Boundaries are for 343 Electoral Districts, an increase of only 5 from the
current 338. However, the population of Canada increased by 10.501% from 2011
to 2021. That could easily justify adding 35 seats, not just 5. Therefore, the
first step could be adding 30 regional compensatory seats.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">
<span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">The 30 additional seats
would be layered over the 340 Districts in the 10 provinces (plus 3 in the
Territories), established by the current Boundaries Commissions (see list
below). The additional MPs would go to the most unrepresented voters in each
region.</span></span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> The ballot would not change.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">What
would that look like?<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">A real
PR system would likely have a 5% threshold. An incremental step is aimed at
major parties, so it would want to use a higher threshold. I am using 8%. Compared
to 5%, this costs the PPC four seats. (Bloc Québecois voters
are represented in each Quebec region now.)</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">We do
not yet know the transposed results on the new 343 districts, so I’ll have to
start with the 2021 results. I allocate the 30 additional seats by the Swedish method:
an “adjustment seat” to the most unrepresented party in the region. Each party has
a quotient in each region, which is its number of votes in the region divided
by (2n+1), where n is the number of MPs elected. If a party has no MP
in the region, its quotient simply is the number of votes it received. In a
region, the party with the highest quotient is awarded an additional seat, and
a new quotient is then calculated for that region before the next seat is
distributed. A region can thus receive more than one additional seat.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Simulation<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">My
simulation gives the 30 additional MPs to three parties: the NDP 20 in eight
provinces, the underrepresented Conservatives 6 (2 Montreal, 2 Vancouver, 1 GTA
and 1 PEI), and the underrepresented Liberals 4 (2 BC outside Vancouver, 1
Alberta, and 1 Eastern Quebec). Adding those 30 MPs to the 2021 results, we get
163 Liberals, 125 Conservatives, 45 NDP, 33 Bloc, and 2 Greens. A majority of
the 368 seats is 185. The risk of any one party getting 185 is reduced.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">With
only 30 additional MPs, I assume they would be the “best runners-up” in each
region, the defeated candidates with the highest % of support. All three parties would have a more representative
caucus. I make the additional 30 MPs 18 women and 3 indigenous.</span> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><i><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Note: this is only a simulation. </span></i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">In any election, as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3guVBhKmDc" target="_blank">Prof. Dennis Pilon says</a>:</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> "Now keep in mind that, when you change the voting
system, you also change the incentives that affect the kinds of decisions that
voters might make. For instance, we know that, when every vote counts, voters
won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or casting a strategic
vote. Thus, we should expect that support for different parties might
change."</span> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">For
the Liberals that would be one from Alberta like Ben Henderson, Edmonton City
Councillor since 2007, who ran in Amarjeet Sohi’s old seat. One from the BC
Interior like Kelowna’s Tim Krupa, who went from Kelowna to an MBA at Oxford,
worked in the PMO for three years, and on to Harvard and the CPP, giving a
voice in caucus (and cabinet?) to the BC Interior where the Liberals were shut
out. Another from BC like Dr. Nikki Macdonald, University of Victoria Professor
and environment leader. And one from Eastern Quebec like their new star
candidate, well-known unionist Ann Gingras, long-time President of the CSN’s
regional council, previously a critic of the Liberals but recruited this time
by Justin Trudeau himself.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The
Conservatives would not have lost two of their Vancouver incumbents: Alice Wong
and Tamara Jensen, and their Richmond Hill incumbent Leona Alleslev. They would
have gained their star Montreal candidate, Frank Cavallaro, a household name
across Montreal as a radio journalist and the main weather presenter at
CFCF-CTV Montreal for 17 years, and another Montreal candidate Terry Roberts,
along with former banker Jody Sanderson in PEI.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The
NDP would have elected Edmonton Métis union labour relations officer Charmaine
St. Germain and former Edmonton school trustee Heather MacKenzie, Executive
Director of Solar Alberta. Saskatoon’s Robert Doucette, former president of
the Métis Nation-Saskatchewan. From Winnipeg, community development worker
Melissa Chung-Mowat, a second generation Chinese Canadian and a Métis woman. Sudbury’s
Nadia Verrelli, university professor. In Toronto, Alejandra Bravo (now a city
councillor); school trustee Norm Di Pasquale; and former FoodShare Director
Paul Taylor, with origins in Saint Kitts. London engineer Dirka Prout, with
origins in Trinidad. CUPE economist Angella MacEwen. Former Queen’s professor, Guyanese-born
Vic Sahai. Former MPs Tracey Ramsey and Malcolm Allen. Montreal star candidate Nimâ
Machouf; lawyer and former Montreal MP Ève Péclet; former Quebec MP Ruth Ellen
Brosseau; and Tommy Bureau in Quebec City. Moncton’s Serge Landry, Canadian
Labour Congress Representative. Former MLA Lisa Roberts in Halifax. Mary
Shortall, president of the Newfoundland and Labrador Federation of Labour.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><i><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The
provincial breakdown would be:<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">British
Columbia 43+4 (in 2 regions)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Alberta
37+3<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Saskatchewan
14+1<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Manitoba
14+1<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Ontario
122+10 (in 4 regions)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Quebec
78+7 (in 3 regions)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">New
Brunswick 10+1<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">PEI
4+1 <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Nova
Scotia 11+1<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Nfld
& Lab. 7+1<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Before
the 2021 election, </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">I </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">d</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">escribed another variation of a compromise model:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2020/11/when-pierre-trudeau-supported.html" style="background-color: #f6f6f6; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="color: #de7008;">http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2020/11/when-pierre-trudeau-supported.html</span></a> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></p>Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-48596581883507247732023-03-13T02:46:00.003-04:002023-03-14T17:55:46.414-04:00If Saskatchewan had a democratic voting system in 2020 . . .<p><span face="Arial, sans-serif">After the 20</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif">20</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"> election, communities in all of Saskatchewan
outside Regina, Saskatoon and the two northern ridings ha</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif">ve</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"> no voice in the opposition. They have no local
voice to question any government action or inaction. Their regions face
one-party rule.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">
With a regional open-list Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system such as
the <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2010/01/law-commission-of-canada-report.html">Law
Commission of Canada recommended</a>, if Saskatchewan voters voted as they did
in 20</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">20</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">(and assuming the Green vote doubled with
PR, as one can normally assume), </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">they would have elected 38 Saskatchewan Party MLAs</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> 20 New Democrats</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">, and three Greens</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">.<br />
<br />
With MMP, we still elect the majority of MLAs locally. Voters unrepresented by
the local results top them up by electing regional MLAs. The total MLAs match
the vote share. With the regional "Open list" version, voters can
vote for whomever they like out of the regional candidates nominated by the
party's regional nomination process. Like <a href="https://i.cbc.ca/1.3811524.1476882686!/fileImage/httpImage/mmp-ballot.png" target="_blank">this ballot</a> that won the 2016 referendum in PEI. <br />
<br />
See <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2010/04/mmp-made-easy.html">MMP
Made Easy</a>.<br />
<br />
</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">I’m</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> using a
model with </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">almost
40% </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">of the MLAs elected regionally, in f</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">ive</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> regions. </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Eleven</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> local
ridings would generally become </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">seven
</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">larger
ones. </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">My simulation has</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> 3</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">9</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> local MLAs and 2</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">2</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> elected regionally.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><i><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Assumption about Green Party<o:p></o:p></span></u></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">I am not a Green Party supporter, but it
is well-known that pre-election polls generally show Green Party support at double
the level of Green votes cast on election day. Half of Green Party supporters vote
“strategically” for another party, or stay home. When every vote counts, the Green
Party vote will generally double. In the 2020 election, 2.25% of votes went to
the Green Party, so my projection assumes this will become 4.5%. Most
proportional voting system have a threshold of 5% or 4% of the votes for a
party to win representation. With only 61 MLAs, the right threshold for
Saskatchewan would be 4%. In 2020, the new Buffalo Party got 2.54%, but I have
no reason to project their vote under PR to go above 4%, so my projection does
not include Buffalo Party MLAs.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Five regions</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">
Problems with your </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Area
Clinic</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">in Weyburn, Moose
Jaw, Swift Current, Rosetown, North Battleford, Prince Albert, Tisdale, or
Yorkton?</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> Who're ya gonna call?<br />
<br />
The 1</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">2</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> MLAs from
the <b>southwest </b></span><b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">(</span></b><b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Moose
Jaw-Swift Current-Weyburn-Kindersley)</span></b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> are all from the Saskatchewan Party. Although 2</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">0</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">% of those voters voted NDP, they have no voice in
the opposition.</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif"> I</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">nstead of a
SP sweep, my spreadsheet projects </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">two</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> New
Democrats, once NDP votes count equally with SP voters</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">, and a Green</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">. That would
be the </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">two</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> regional NDP
candidates who got the most votes across the region. Maybe NDP voters would
have elected Melissa Patterson</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">
from Moose Jaw and </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Stefan Rumpel</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">
from Swift Current, and Green voters </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Kimberly Soo Goodtrack</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif"> from Wood Mountain Lakota First
Nation. (Stefan Rumpel told voters he wants <a href="https://www.swiftcurrentonline.com/articles/a-split-vote-on-change-to-saskatchewan-s-electoral-system">proportional
representation because it can increase diversity in governmen</a>t.)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">
The 1</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">2</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> MLAs in that
region would be</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">come</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">eight local</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">, </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">four</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> regional. The SP would no doubt
have won all </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">eight</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> local seats,
so those SP voters would even elect </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">one</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> of the
regional MLAs.<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[endif]--></span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Voters in the
</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">13</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> <b>Regina</b></span><b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">-region</span></b><b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> </span></b><b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">districts (</span></b><b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">incl</span></b><b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">uding </span></b><b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Indian Head -
Milestone)</span></b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> would have elected </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">six</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> NDP MLAs,
not just </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">five</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">. Perhaps Bhajan
Brar?</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif"> And they would have
elected Green Party leader Naomi Hunter.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">For t</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">he 1</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">0</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> MLAs from <b>Yorkton-Melfort-Humboldt</b></span><b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">,</span></b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif"> </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">instead of the SP winning </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">them </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">all, we'd see </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">two </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">New Democrats. That would be the
</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">two</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> regional NDP
candidates who got the most votes across the region (maybe Thera Nordal from Southey, east of Last Mountain Lake, and Stacey Strykowski from Preeceville
near Yorkton). The 10 MLAs in that region would be </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">six </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">local, </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">four</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> regional</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">, </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">so those SP voters would even elect </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">two</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> of the regional MLAs.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">The 1</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">5</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> ridings of the <b>Saskatoon-region (including Martensville-Warman)</b>
were less skewed. </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">We’d
still see six</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> NDP</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> and </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">along with eight </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">SP we'd see </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">a Green Party MLA</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">: perhaps Delanie
Passer?</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">For the 11 MLAS from </span><b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Prince Albert</span></b><b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">,</span></b><b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> Lloydminster & North</span></b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">, the NDP would have elected two more: maybe
incumbent Prince Albert MLA </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Nicole Rancourt</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">and
</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Amber
Stewart</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif"> from The
Battlefords. </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><br />
<br />
Of course, this projection simplistically assumes voters would have cast the
same ballots they did in 20</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">20</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">. The reality
would be different. When every vote counts, we typically see around 8% higher turnout.
And one recent study suggested 18% of voters might vote differently. No more
strategic voting. We would likely have had different candidates -- more women,
and more diversity of all kinds. Who knows who might have won real democratic
elections?<br />
<br />
Different candidates: when the SP members from Moose Jaw-Swift
Current-Weyburn-Kindersley</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif"> </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">met in a
regional nominating convention, they would have not only voted to put the </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">eight </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">local nominees on the regional
ballot, but </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">also </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">would have
added several regional candidates. With only one woman from the </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">eight</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> local ridings, when they
nominated several additional regional candidates, they would have naturally
wanted to nominate a diverse group: more women. </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">In 2020</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> Saskatchewan elected </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">17</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> women and 4</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">4</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> men. But 90%
of Canadian voters say that, if parties would nominate more women, they'd vote
for them.<br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><i><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Note: this is
only a simulation</span></i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">In any
election, as <a href="http://prof./">Prof.</a><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3guVBhKmDc" target="_blank"> Dennis
Pilon says</a>: "Now keep in mind that, when you change the voting
system, you also change the incentives that affect the kinds of decisions that
voters might make. For instance, we know that, when every vote counts, voters
won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or casting a strategic
vote. Thus, we should expect that support for different parties might
change."</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">In these
local simulations, for the names of regional MPPs I use the local candidates
who got the highest percent in the region without winning the local seat. They
would be the most likely winners under open-list MMP,<br />
<br />
<b><u>The open-list Mixed-Member Proportional system:</u></b> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Every M</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">LA</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> represents actual voters and real communities.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">We’re not
talking about a model with candidates appointed by central parties. We’re
talking about the <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2010/04/mmp-made-easy.html" target="_blank">mixed
member system</a> designed by the Law Commission of Canada, where every M</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">LA</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> represents actual voters and real communities. The
majority of M</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">LAs</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> will be
elected by local ridings as we do today, preserving the traditional link
between voter and M</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">LA</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">. The other 3</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">6</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">% are elected as regional M</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">LA</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">s, topping-up the numbers of M</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">LA</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">s from your local region so the total is
proportional to the votes for each party.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">You have two
votes</span></u></b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">. One is for your local M</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">LA</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">. The
second helps elect regional M</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">LA</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">s for the
top-up seats. All M</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">LA</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">s have faced
the voters. No one is guaranteed a seat. The region is small enough that
the regional M</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">LA</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">s are
accountable.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Competing
MPPs:<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">You have
a local MPP who will champion your community, and at least four competing
regional MPPs, normally including one whose views best reflect your values,
someone you helped elect in your local district or local region.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">How would
regional M</span></u></b><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">LA</span></u></b><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">s serve
residents?<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">See <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2013/05/how-do-regional-mps-manage-to-serve.html" target="_blank">how it works in Scotland</a>.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">T</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">he ballot would look like<a href="https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thetelegram.com%2Fmedia%2Fphotologue%2Fphotos%2Fcache%2Fmmp-ballot-3156305_large.jpg&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thetelegram.com%2Fnews%2Fregional%2Fprince-edward-islanders-choose-mmpr-in-electoral-reform-plebiscite-16551%2F&docid=uwblVZrdAnfH-M&tbnid=Sq8X0n0ymxi6VM%3A&vet=10ahUKEwjmr46X0ZnkAhVLT98KHeE6DOYQMwilAShVMFU..i&w=800&h=535&itg=1&bih=920&biw=1904&q=pei%20plebiscite%202016%20ballot&ved=0ahUKEwjmr46X0ZnkAhVLT98KHeE6DOYQMwilAShVMFU&iact=mrc&uact=8" target="_blank"> </a><a href="https://i.cbc.ca/1.3811524.1476882686!/fileImage/httpImage/mmp-ballot.png" target="_blank">this ballot that PEI voters chose</a> in their 2016
plebiscite, unlike the closed-list MMP model Ontario voters <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2011/10/did-ontarians-reject-province-wide.html" target="_blank">did not support</a> in 2007</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">. </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">The open-regional-list mixed-member model is used
in the German province of Bavaria, and was recommended by Canada's Law
Commission and by Scotland's Arbuthnott Commission.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">However, when Quebec’s Chief Electoral Officer reported In December 2007 on a compensatory mixed system, he reviewed several options for the design of a mixed proportional model for Quebec. He leaned towards an open list system with a party option: giving voters the choice of using their second ballot to vote for a party or one of its regional candidates. This would help parties that choose to present a “zippered” list, alternative women and men.<span face="Arial, sans-serif"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif"></span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">The Jenkins Commission in the UK</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif"> had a </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">colourful explanation accurately
predict</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">ing</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> why closed
lists would be rejected in Canada: additional members locally anchored are
“more easily assimilable into the political culture and indeed the
Parliamentary system than would be a flock of unattached birds clouding the sky
and wheeling under central party directions.”<br />
<br />
<b><u>Technical Notes:<o:p></o:p></u></b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">1</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">. The calculation for any PR
system has to choose a rounding method, to round fractions up and down. I have
used the “largest remainder” calculation, which Germany used until recently,
because it is the simplest and most transparent. In a 10-MPP region, if Party A
deserves 3.4 MPPs, Party B deserves 3.1, Party C deserves 2.3, and Party D
deserves 1.2, which party gets the tenth seat? Party A has a remainder of 0.4, the
largest remainder. In a region where one party wins a bonus (“overhang”), I
allocate the remaining seats among the remaining parties by the same
calculation.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">2</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">. The purpose of the compensatory regional seats is
to correct disproportional local results, not to provide a parallel system
of getting elected. The Law Commission of Canada recommended that the right to
nominate candidates for regional top-up seats should be limited to those
parties which have candidates standing for election in at least one-third of
the ridings within the top-up region. The UK’s Jenkins Commission recommended
50%. This prevents a possible distortion of the system by parties pretending to
split into twin decoy parties for the regional seats, the trick which
Berlusconi invented to sabotage Italy’s voting system.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""Arial",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif"> </span></p>Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-60161847192158970662023-02-09T23:49:00.003-05:002023-02-10T14:46:59.970-05:00In New Brunswick's 2020 election, voters lost<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">New Brunswick voters lost in its 2020 election. With
only 39.3% of the vote, Blaine Higgs’ PCs won 27 of the 49 seats, an artificial
majority.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Liberals with 34.4% of the votes won only 17 seats.
The potential Conservative ally, the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick, won two
seats and then joined the government. The Greens held their three seats.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Fair Province-wide result: 17
Liberals, 20 PCs, 8 Greens, 4 People’s Alliance<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">But a fair and proportional voting system would have
let every vote count. With 49 MLAs in New Brunswick, those Liberal voters
deserved to elect 17 MLAs against only 20 PCs. Voters for the Greens deserved
eight MLAs. This would have allowed the Liberals and Greens to form a
government together. The People’s Alliance would have won four seats, just
short of being able to form a majority with the PCs.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Worse, New Brunswick appears more divided into
linguistic groups than it really is.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">New Brunswick’s Commission on
Legislative Democracy proposed four regions</span></u></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">The
New Brunswick </span><a href="https://www.electionsnb.ca/content/dam/enb/pdf/cld/CLDFinalReport-e.pdf" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;" target="_blank">Commission on Legislative Democracy proposed</a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> in 2004 a
proportional voting system with four regions, so that voters in each region would
be fairly represented in both government and opposition. Their Mixed Member
Proportional model was similar to the model PEI voters chose in their
plebiscite in November 2016. The party’s leading candidates in each region
would have been elected to regional top-up seats to match the popular vote in
that region.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In the 12 ridings of the South West region, heavily
English-speaking, the PCs won all 12. But the Liberals’ 16.1% of the vote would
have elected two regional MLAs from Saint John, likely Sharon Teare and Tim
Jones or Phil Comeau. The Greens 11.8% would also have given them two regional
MLAs, likely Brent Harris and Kim Reeder. The People’s Alliance with 11.1% would
have elected a regional MLA such as Rod Cumberland.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In the 13 ridings of the Central region (Fredericton
to Miramichi), the PCs won 9 of them. The Liberals elected only incumbent Lisa
Harris</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">,
but they </span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">won 20.2% of the vote
in that region, so they would also have elected two regional MLAs, such as Andrew
Harvey (incumbent MLA in Carleton-Victoria), leader Kevin Vickers, or incumbent
Fredericton MLA Stephen Horsman. With 16.5% of the vote, Green leader David Coons
would have had company, a regional MLA like Luke Randall or Melissa Fraser.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">In the 11 ridings of Northern New Brunswick, heavily
francophone, the Liberals won all eleven. However, those voters cast 20% of
their votes for the PCs, and 12.8% for the Greens. They would have elected
regional MLAs like PCs Anne Bard-Lavigne and Marie-Eve Castonguay, and Greens Marie
Larivière and Charles Thériault.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In the
South East’s 13 ridings, every vote would have counted, even for the People’s
Alliance who would have had a regional MLA like Sharon Buchanan. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I’m
not talking about a closed-list system. The open-regional-list </span><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2016/03/mmp-for-canada.html" target="_blank"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Mixed
Member Proportional</span></a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> system means every MLA has faced the
voters. That’s the system PEI voters chose in November 2016, with a </span><a href="http://www.yourchoicepei.ca/mixed-member-proportional-1" target="_blank"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">workable
ballot as you can see here</span></a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">. It’s also </span><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2016/12/the-open-list-mixed-member-proportional.html" target="_blank"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">the model on which the federal Electoral Reform Committee</span></a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> found
consensus: a local and personalized proportional representation model.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">You have two votes</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">You
have two votes: one for your local MLA, and one for a regional MLA from your
local region. You cast your second vote for a party’s regional candidate you
prefer, which counts as a vote for that party. This is the same practical model
used in Scotland, with one vital improvement: Canadian voters would like
to vote for a specific regional candidate and hold them accountable. New
Brunswick would have had 29 local MLAs and 20 regional MLAs. Local ridings are
bigger than today, but in return you have competing MLAs: a local MLA, and
about five regional MLAs from your local region.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The best of both worlds<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Would
proportional representation hurt small communities? Just the opposite:
voters are guaranteed two things which equal better local representation:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">1.
A local MLA who will champion their
area.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">2.
An MLA whose views best reflect their values, someone they helped elect in
their local district or local region.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">No
longer does one person claim to speak for everyone in the district. No longer
does one party claim unbridled power with only 40% support.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Parties will work together</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Parties
will, unless one party had outright majority support, have to work together -
to earn our trust where others have broken it, and to show that a new kind of
governance is possible. Research clearly shows that proportionately-elected
governments and cooperative decision-making produce better policy outcomes and
sustainable progress on major issues over the long term.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Some
fear-mongers claim proportional representation favours extremists. However, as
a former conservative MLA in British Columbia, Nick Loenen, said a few years
ago “The best guarantee against abuse of government power is to share that
power among the many, rather than the few."</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Regional nominations<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Typically,
party members will nominate local candidates first, then hold a regional
nomination process. Often the regional candidates will include the local
candidates, plus a few regional-only candidates who will add diversity and
balance to the regional slate. In order to </span><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2016/01/canada-needs-democratically-nominated.html" target="_blank"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">ensure democratic nominations</span></a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">, it
would be useful to deny taxpayer subsidy to any party not nominating
democratically. The meeting would decide what rank order each would have
on the regional ballot. But then voters in the region would have the final
choice.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">2006</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">In
2006 New Brunswick saw a sad irony: Bernard's Lord's PCs had planned a
referendum on the Commission on Legislative Democracy's recommended PR
system, which Lord supported. When a resignation forced an early election, he
won the most votes but the Liberals won the most seats, and
shelved the Commission on Legislative Democracy's recommendation.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Technical note</span></u></b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">: the
New Brunswick Commission on Legislative Democracy proposed four regions which
mostly had 14 MLAs each, nine local and five regional. At that time New
Brunswick had 55 MLAs. Today that has shrunk to 49, so the four regions have 11,
12 or 13 MLAs. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-36574670483289494302022-10-12T13:49:00.003-04:002022-10-12T13:49:57.611-04:00Are Canadian voters comfortable with First Past The Post?<p><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
Globe and Mail editorialized on Oct. 10, 2022, that “Multiple provincial
referendums have been held on ditching FPTP for some sort of proportional
representation – Prince Edward Island in 2005, 2016 and 2019; Ontario in 2007;
British Columbia in 2005, 2009 and 2018. In none of them did enough voters
endorse the new over the old. Canadians are apparently comfortable with a
system that, however imperfect, has produced 150 years of stable government,
and are suspicious of changing it.” (PEI did vote for MMP in 2016, by the way.)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Comfortable?
False.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Canadian
voters are far from comfortable with FPTP. Polls showed in 2001, 2002, 2003,
2004, 2010, 2012 and 2013 that <a href="https://wilfday.blogspot.com/2011/01/poll-results-on-canadian-public-support.html" target="_blank">around 70 percent of Canadians supported PR</a>.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">More
recently: Strategic Directions poll 2017 May 23 to 25: When asked explicitly if
they would prefer that Canada adopt a Proportional Representation (PR) system,
<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx38vorBQgfmRGdaTlRhX2FNN0U/view?resourcekey=0-Zhd_yA9TvLjWh9c61R1lKA" target="_blank">national support was once again strongly supportive (71%)</a>.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Angus
Reid Global poll Sept. 12 & 13, 2019: </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">“Do
you support or oppose moving towards a system of proportional representation in
Canadian elections?”</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><a href="https://www.fairvote.ca/17/09/2019/angusreidpoll/" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Net
support: 77%</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Net oppose: 23%</span></a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Angus
Reid Global poll October 29 – November 4, 2019: please indicate which of these
two broad options you prefer for Canada: <a href="https://angusreid.org/electoral-reform-trend/" target="_blank">A new system of ProportionalRepresentation: 68%.</a> The current First Past the Post system: 32%</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Leger
poll September 4 to September 6, 2020: Do you support or oppose moving to
proportional representation in Canada? <a href="https://www.fairvote.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/16186-002-FAIRVOTE_proportional_representation-1.pdf" target="_blank">76% support, 24% oppose</a>.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">And
for Ontario, Leger poll November 12-14, 2021. Do you support or oppose
moving to proportional representation in Ontario? <a href="https://www.fairvote.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Leger-Ontario-2021.pdf" target="_blank">Support 78%, oppose 22%</a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Why do
some referenda fail? Fear of the unknown, sometimes. For example, the BC 2018
referendum asked voters to vote yes on the first question when <a href="https://wilfday.blogspot.com/2019/11/what-lessons-can-be-learned-from.html" target="_blank">the result of
the second question was one of three systems, a "mystery box,"</a> which
might be an unknown system.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p>
<br />Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-23297700898788514272022-09-20T02:24:00.009-04:002022-10-03T03:45:13.705-04:00If every vote counted, what risks would change?<p><span face="Arial, sans-serif">If
the Liberals had kept their 2015 promise to make every vote count, and Canada
had Proportional Representation for the 2025 election, there would be no risk
of Pierre Poilievre or anyone else winning an accidental majority with only 35
or 40 per cent of the votes.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">Sadly,
not going to happen for 2025. Justin Trudeau is no longer listening to Liberals
who wanted PR in 2015, although at least 28 of them are still in his caucus.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">For
an election after redistribution, the risk goes up slightly. There will be 343 ridings,
five more than today. But most of the ridings will be reconfigured, to reflect
shifts in populations. The biggest winner is Alberta, with three new MPs. And
the biggest winners, on the current proposals of the 10 Boundaries Commissions,
on the votes cast in 2021, will be the Conservatives with five more MPs, and
the NDP also with five more MPs. The Bloc will gain two, while the Liberals
will lose seven. But the Conservatives will still be 48 seats away from a
majority, only three fewer than in 2021.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif"><a href="https://www.ipolitics.ca/news/analysis-tories-bloc-ndp-gain-and-liberals-lose-under-redistribution">https://www.ipolitics.ca/news/analysis-tories-bloc-ndp-gain-and-liberals-lose-under-redistribution</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">Toronto is complaining<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">The
redistribution will cost Toronto a seat, since it is not growing as fast as the
rest of Ontario. But at the Boundaries Commission hearings for Toronto Sept.
29, the outrage was almost universal: how can Toronto accept losing a seat? Of
course, in 2021 Toronto voted 52% Liberal and elected 100% Liberal MPs, so many
Toronto voters have more than one reason to be outraged.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">A “Dose of Proportionality.”</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">But
what would happen if the Liberals listened to what Justin’s father said in
1980? How about a “dose of proportionality?” A temporary step towards
proportional representation. Like the recommendation of the Pépin-Roberts
Commission in 1979 (the “Task Force on Canadian Unity”) which proposed electing
an additional 60 MPs to top-up the results from each province, keeping the
present ridings. </span><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2020/11/when-pierre-trudeau-supported.html"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">Pierre Trudeau endorsed that in 1980</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">, but couldn’t get it past his nervous
backbenchers.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">A
modest 42 additional MPs is the number of additional MPs </span><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2011/04/twelve-percent-solution.html"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">the late Mauril Bélanger liked</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">. He was MP for Ottawa-Vanier for 21
years, one of the Liberal MP supporters of proportional representation, and the
man whose bill changed "in all thy sons command" to "in all of
us command."</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">These
extra 42 MPs would give all parties MPs from almost every region, if that party
got over 5% in the province. Not full proportional representation, but “PR-lite,”
a “dose” of PR. This will make every vote count to some extent, and will also
make accidental majority governments far less likely.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">More diversity<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Both
larger parties will have more incentive to pivot to more diverse vote bases.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">The
12 new Conservative MPs would be five in Quebec, two in Atlantic Canada, two in
Toronto, one in Peel—Halton, one in Vancouver, and one on Vancouver Island,
more geographically diverse. The six new Liberal MPs would be two in Alberta, one
in the BC Interior, one in Southwestern Ontario, one in Northern and Central
Ontario, and one in Eastern Quebec, again more geographically diverse.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">Less risk of accidental majorities<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Is
42 extra MPs really enough to make a difference? On the votes cast in 2021 on
the new Boundaries, it looks like the 42 extra MPs would be 16 for the NDP, 12 for
Conservatives where their voters are badly unrepresented, six Liberals, seven
PPC, and one Green. That’s only seven PPC in the six provinces where they got
more than 5% of the votes (Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and New
Brunswick). Not the 14 MPs they would have gotten in those six provinces under
full PR.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">With
the additional 42 MPs, the Conservatives would be 9 seats further away from an
accidental majority, 57 seats away, and the Liberals would be 14 seats further away
from an accidental majority, 34 seats away. And Canada would be 24 MPs further away
from being locked into a two-party system.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">Happier Toronto<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Toronto
voters would elect three more MPs, the best runners-up from parties underrepresented
in Toronto. On the votes cast in 2021, that’s the NDP’s Alejandra Bravo, and two
Conservatives like Joel Yakov Etienne and Indira Bains. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><i style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Technical
note</i><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">: I am using 21 regions, each with an average of 16 local MPs and 2
regional MPs for top-up seats awarded to the party most unrepresented in the
region. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></p>Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-78283562117639496822022-06-03T16:37:00.011-04:002022-11-19T02:48:48.981-05:00What would Ontario's 2022 election look like if we used proportional representation?<div><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">The people of Ontario just reminded all of us very powerfully of why we
need PR! So did the </span><a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2022/06/09/ontarios-election-produced-a-result-that-is-unfair-and-unrepresentative-the-system-needs-to-be-change.html" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Toronto Star
editorial</span></a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> supporting it, a first.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">If every vote in Ontario had counted in 2022, what would that look like?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">No one man would have a one-party government
elected by only 40.8% of the votes.<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">On the votes cast in 2022, with proportional representation our Ontario
legislature should have 53 PC MPPs, 31 New Democrats, 31 Liberals, and 8
Greens.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Rural and urban voters in every region of Ontario would
have effective votes and fair representation in both government and
opposition. That’s a basic principle of proportional representation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">For example, let’s see what would happen using the mixed-member
proportional system (used in Germany, New Zealand and Scotland). Using eight
regions, the regions would have an average of 15 MPPs each (nine local MPPs, six
regional MPPs elected to top-up seats).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Did your vote count?<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">In 2022, 54% of Ontario votes were not effective to help elect an MPP,
as the First-Past-The-Post system threw them in the trash.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">And who can say what a real democratic voting system would have given
Ontario? This year’s 43.03% turnout was the lowest since Confederation. But in New
Zealand, where every vote counts, in 2020 they saw an 82% turnout elect a new
government with two-party support. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">The open-list or no-list Mixed-Member Proportional
systems: Every MPP represents actual voters and real communities<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">We’re not talking about a model with candidates appointed by central
parties. We’re talking about the </span><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2010/04/mmp-made-easy.html" target="_blank"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">mixed member
system</span></a><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> designed by the Law Commission of Canada and endorsed by the
Ontario NDP Convention in 2014, where every MPP represents actual voters and
real communities. The majority of MPPs will be elected by local ridings as we
do today, preserving the traditional link between voter and MPP. The other 39%
are elected as regional MPPs, topping-up the numbers of MPPs from your local
region so the total is proportional to the votes for each party.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">You have two votes. One is for your local MPP. The second helps
elect regional MPPs for the top-up seats. All MPPs have faced the voters. No
one is guaranteed a seat. The region is small enough that the regional
MPPs are accountable.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Open-list <o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_Hlk508561205"></a><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">With open-list, the ballot would look like</span><a href="https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thetelegram.com%2Fmedia%2Fphotologue%2Fphotos%2Fcache%2Fmmp-ballot-3156305_large.jpg&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thetelegram.com%2Fnews%2Fregional%2Fprince-edward-islanders-choose-mmpr-in-electoral-reform-plebiscite-16551%2F&docid=uwblVZrdAnfH-M&tbnid=Sq8X0n0ymxi6VM%3A&vet=10ahUKEwjmr46X0ZnkAhVLT98KHeE6DOYQMwilAShVMFU..i&w=800&h=535&itg=1&bih=920&biw=1904&q=pei%20plebiscite%202016%20ballot&ved=0ahUKEwjmr46X0ZnkAhVLT98KHeE6DOYQMwilAShVMFU&iact=mrc&uact=8" target="_blank"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> </span></a><a href="https://i.cbc.ca/1.3811524.1476882686!/fileImage/httpImage/mmp-ballot.png" target="_blank"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">this ballot that PEI voters chose</span></a><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> in their 2016 plebiscite. Unlike
the closed-list MMP model Ontario voters </span><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2011/10/did-ontarians-reject-province-wide.html" target="_blank"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">did not support</span></a><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> in 2007, you can cast a personal
vote for a candidate within the regional list. This is commonly called
“open list.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">No-list<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">With no-list, instead of voting for a candidate on a regional list, your
second vote helps elect as regional MPPs those local candidates who got the
most local support without winning the local seat. Call them “best
runners-up.” <o:p></o:p></span></p></span></div><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="line-height: 115%;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">How would regional MPPs serve residents?<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">See </span><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2013/05/how-do-regional-mps-manage-to-serve.html" target="_blank"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">how it works in Scotland</span></a><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Ontario’s Rural-Urban Divide<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Our winner-take-all voting system exaggerates Ontario’s regional differences,
especially the rural-urban divide.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Ontario’s suburban, small-town and rural voters somehow combined to make
Doug Ford an all-powerful premier. But his majority in this year’s Ontario
election came from our winner-take all voting system, not from voters. It came
from the 30-MPP bonus for the PCs that our skewed system foisted on those
voters by throwing 54% of their ballots in the trash.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Liberal voters would be fairly represented, with 31 MPPs holding the
balance of power, as would Green voters with eight MPPs. See details below.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Competing MPPs:<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">You have a local MPP who will champion your community, and about
five competing regional MPPs, normally including one whose views best reflect
your values, someone you helped elect in your local district or local region.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Note: this is only a simulation<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">In any election, as </span><a href="http://prof./"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Prof.</span></a><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3guVBhKmDc" target="_blank"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> Dennis
Pilon says</span></a><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">: "Now keep in mind that, when you change the voting system,
you also change the incentives that affect the kinds of decisions that voters
might make. For instance, we know that, when every vote counts, voters won't
have to worry about splitting the vote, or casting a strategic vote. Thus,
we should expect that support for different parties might change."<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">In these local simulations, for the names of regional MPPs I use the
local candidates who got the highest percent in the region without winning the
local seat. They would be the most likely winners under open-list MMP, and
would certainly be the winners under no-list MMP. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Toronto and York <o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">PC voters cast only 38.2% of the votes in Toronto and York Region, yet
elected 22 of the 35 MPPs. With MMP, instead of electing only four Liberal
members, these voters would have also elected seven Liberal regional MPPs
(maybe Steven Del Duca, Soo Wong, Arlena Hebert, Lee Fairclough, Jonathan Tsao,
Paul Saguil and Sandra Tam), and two Green regional MPPs (such as Dianne Saxe
and Abhijeet Manay), along with 14 PCs and eight New Democrats. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Peel<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Voters electing 12 MPPs from Peel Region would, instead of electing only
PCs, have elected three or four Regional Liberal MPPs (maybe Dipika Damerla,
Imran Mian and Elizabeth Mendes), and two New Democrats (maybe incumbent MPPs
Gurratan Singh and Sara Singh), along with about seven Progressive Conservatives. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">East Central Ontario (Kingston—Durham Region)<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Voters electing 13 MPPs from Mid-East Ontario would, instead of electing
only one New Democrat, one Liberal and 11 PCs, have elected two Liberal
regional MPPs (such as Amber Bowen from Ajax and Peterborough’s Greg Dempsey),
along with two New Democrats (maybe Kingston’s Mary Rita Holland and Whitby’s Sara
Labelle or Peterborough’s Jen Deck), one Green (Haliburton’s Tom Regina or Frontenac’s Dr. Marlene Spruyt) and seven local PC MPPs. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Eastern Ontario (Ottawa—Cornwall)<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Voters electing 11 MPPs from Eastern Ontario would, instead of electing
only two New Democrats, have elected a regional NDP MPP (maybe Ottawa’s Melissa
Coenraad or Lyra Evans) and a Green such as Christian Proulx, along with three
Liberals and four PCs. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Central West (Waterloo—Bruce—Simcoe)<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Voters electing 14 MPPs from Central West Ontario would, instead of
electing only two New Democrats and a Green but no Liberals, have elected
another New Democrat MPP such as Elmira’s Karen Meissner or Barrie’s Pekka
Reinio, and three Liberals such as Jeff Lehman, Ted Crysler, and Selwyn Hicks
or Surekha Shenoy, along with Green leader Mike Schreiner and a second Green
MPP (Matt Richter), and six local PC MPPs. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Central South (Hamilton—Halton—Niagara—Brantford<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Voters electing 15 MPPs from Central South Ontario would, instead of
electing no Liberal or Green MPP, have elected three regional Liberal MPPs
(such as Oakville’s Alison Gohel, Milton’s Sameera Ali and </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Kaniz Mouli</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">) and a
Green regional MPP like Sandy Crawley, along with four New Democrat MPPs, six
PCs, and independent Bobbi Ann Brady. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Southwest (London—Windsor)<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Voters electing 12 MPPs from Southwest Ontario would, instead of
electing no Liberal MPP, have elected two regional Liberal MPPs (maybe London’s
Kate Graham and former St. Thomas Mayor Heather Jackson or Windsor councillor
Gary Kaschak), along with four New Democrats and six PCs. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Northern Ontario<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Voters electing 12 MPPs from Northern Ontario would, instead of electing
only no Liberal MPP, have elected two regional Liberal MPPs such as Shelby
Ch’ng (or Rob Barrett) and David Farrow, along with five New Democrat MPPs
and five PCs.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">What sort of government would Ontario have had?<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Cooperation between parties representing a majority can get a lot of
good things done. This is the norm in most western democracies.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">The Ontario government might have been:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">1. A minority PC government with a supply-and-confidence agreement (like
the Accord in Ontario in 1985) with the Liberals, ensuring a stable government
for four years (giving the Liberals time to rebuild). Possible but unlikely,
the Liberals had promised not to do this.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">2. A minority NDP government with a supply-and-confidence agreement
(like the Accord in Ontario in 1985) with the Liberals, ensuring a stable
government for four years (giving the Liberals time to rebuild). More likely
than option 1.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">3. A coalition government between the NDP and the Liberals. Less likely
in today’s climate, more likely under PR when the public is more used to
cooperation between parties representing a majority.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">4. A coalition government between the PCs and the Liberals. Possible but
even less likely.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">5. A minority government with no agreement or Accord, relying on support
from one or more other parties issue by issue. Possible but less stable
(although Bill Davis made it work for four years from 1977 to 1981). Today, it
would be very unstable because the minority government would be looking for an
excuse to roll the dice and try for an accidental majority. Under PR, when an
accidental false majority would not be possible, everyone might want to make it
work (as happened in Scotland for four years from 2007 to 2011).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">How big will the Legislature be? Yes, that's only 75 local MPPs. So the
local ridings are larger, unless we have a larger Legislature. That's the only
downside of the mixed-member proportional system. The 2007 Ontario Citizens Assembly
decided to add 22 MPPs. Local ridings would still have to be larger, but a bit
less so. Politicians hate to suggest adding more politicians. A Citizens
Assembly will find it easier. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Technical Notes:<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">1. Because of rounding errors when Ontario is divided
into eight regions, the simulation above happens to give the PCs a bonus of one
seat and the NDP a bonus of one, one from the Liberals, one from the Greens.
The overall results are still very close to proportionality.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">2. This simulation assumes there is a threshold of 3%, 4% or 5% for a
party to elect a regional MPP for a top-up seat. The New Blue Party got only
2.7%. (However, if we impose no threshold, the New Blues got enough votes in
Central West that they could have elected a MPP, either leader Jim Karahalios
or his wife Belinda.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">3. The calculation for any PR system has to
choose a rounding method, to round fractions up and down. I have used the
“largest remainder” calculation, which Germany used until recently, because it
is the simplest and most transparent. In a 10-MPP region, if Party A deserves
3.4 MPPs, Party B deserves 3.1, Party C deserves 2.3, and Party D deserves 1.2,
which party gets the tenth seat? Party A has a remainder of 0.4, the largest
remainder. In a region where one party wins a bonus (“overhang”), I allocate
the remaining seats among the remaining parties by the same calculation.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">4. The purpose of the compensatory regional seats is to correct
disproportional local results, not to provide a parallel system of getting
elected. The Law Commission of Canada recommended that the right to nominate
candidates for regional top-up seats should be limited to those parties which
have candidates standing for election in at least one-third of the ridings within
the top-up region. The UK’s Jenkins Commission recommended 50%. This prevents a
possible distortion of the system by parties pretending to split into twin
decoy parties for the regional seats, the trick which Berlusconi invented to
sabotage Italy’s voting system.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Ontario NDP Policy (Convention)<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">BE IT RESOLVED THAT the Ontario NDP reaffirms its endorsement of a
system of proportional representation for Ontario.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED THAT the proposed system of voting
incorporate the following characteristics:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">a) preservation of the traditional link between voter and MPP by keeping
constituency seats;<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">b) two votes: one for a local constituency candidate and one for a
Party's list of candidates;<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">c) Party lists to be developed and applied at a regional rather than
provincial level;<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">d) restoration and enhancement of democracy through the provision of
additional seats in the Legislature;<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">e) additional seats to be filled from Party Lists so as to offset
disproportionality between the constituency elections and the popular Party
vote.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">f) voters to have the option of either endorsing the party’s regional
list, or casting a personal vote for a candidate within the regional
list. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Updated: An Ontario NDP government will convene a Citizen's
Assembly (an independent group of citizens) that will be mandated to develop a
made-in-Ontario model of MMP. The group will be supported in its work by a
panel of experts and representatives of Ontario's major parties. The CA
will also be mandated to make recommendations to the government on timelines,
implementation and ratification for the change to an MMP voting system.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">(This Post
updated Nov. 10, 2022.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /><br /></p></span></span><p></p>Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-68166067121240751372022-03-06T12:11:00.002-05:002022-04-12T18:32:35.277-04:00Can anything be done before the next federal election?<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Public
opinion favours making every vote count: <a href="https://www.fairvote.ca/poll2020/">76% of voters support</a> moving to
proportional representation in Canada. And <a href="https://www.fairvote.ca/poll2020/">80% support</a> the idea of a national
citizens’ assembly to make recommendation for a made-in-Canada Proportional
Representation system. Yet today we face a roadblock in Ottawa.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
current inaction is unstable. Something will trigger action. We need to be
ready.</span></p><p><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Suppose
the Liberals decide not to risk a Poilièvre-led Conservative Party getting a
false majority. Can anything be done before the next election? How about a
“dose of proportionality?” A temporary step towards proportional
representation. Like the recommendation of <span style="background: rgb(246, 246, 246);">the Pépin-Roberts Commission in 1979 (the “Task Force on Canadian
Unity”) which proposed electing an additional 60 MPs to top-up the results from
each province, keeping the present ridings</span>. </span><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2020/11/when-pierre-trudeau-supported.html"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Pierre
Trudeau endorsed that in 1980</span></a><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">, but couldn’t get it past his
nervous backbenchers.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Suppose
a national Citizens Assembly on Electoral Reform recommended in 2024, after at
least a year’s hearings and deliberations, a new voting system for Canada. We
are now about to start public hearings to set up new electoral districts. Whatever
model is chosen by the Citizens Assembly will require new electoral boundaries,
another round of hearings, which need to wrap up seven months before a 2025 election,
if the election can even wait that long. Not enough time.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">A
modest 42 additional MPs is the number of additional MPs </span><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2011/04/twelve-percent-solution.html" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">the
late Mauril Bélanger liked</a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">. He was MP for Ottawa-Vanier for 21 years, one
of the Liberal MP supporters of proportional representation, and the man whose
bill changed "in all thy sons command" to "in all of us
command."<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">These
extra MPs will give all parties MPs from almost every region, if that party got
over 5% in the province. Not full proportional representation, but “PR-lite,” a
“dose” of PR. This will make every vote count to some extent, and will also
make accidental majority governments far less likely.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Is 42
extra MPs really enough? Would it have prevented a Harper false majority in
2011? Checking the 2011 results, </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">those
42 MPs would have been 17 Liberals, 11 New Democrats, 4 Greens, 5 Bloc, and 5
Conservatives (from Atlantic Canada and Quebec). Harper would have had 171 MPs
out of 350, four short of half.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">The 2021 election left many Liberal voters from Alberta and Saskatchewan
unrepresented, along with many Conservative voters in Quebec, the GTA, BC and
PEI. My simulation takes a group of, typically, about 17 present ridings, and
gives them two additional MPs. Voters for the most unrepresented party in that
region elect an additional MP. The winning candidate is the candidate of that
party in that region who got the highest level of support without being elected
locally (“best runner-up.”) The Atlantic Provinces get only one additional MP
each, while the four larger provinces are divided into regions.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">If we
had elected an additional 42 MPs last year, on the votes cast then in 22
regions across Canada, look at the variety they would have added: Sure, almost
half are from the NDP, but 22 others are from other parties.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Four
more Liberals. One from Alberta like Edmonton councillor Ben Henderson. One
from Saskatchewan like Sean McEachern (Ralph Goodale’s successor). One from the
BC Interior like Tim Krupa. One from Eastern Quebec like star labour candidate Ann
Gingras.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Ten
more Conservatives. Five from Quebec. Two from the GTA, one from the BC Lower
Mainland like Alice Wong, one from Vancouver Island like town councillor Shelley
Downey, and one from PEI. A more balanced caucus.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">One
more Green, from the BC Lower Mainland, where their strongest candidate was Dr.
Cheryl Matthew, indigenous policy expert, of the Simpcw First Nation.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Seven of
the Peoples Party of Canada: four in Ontario, one in Manitoba (the man who came
second to Candice Bergen), and two in Alberta.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">And 20
New Democrats: two from Toronto, two more from Montreal and two more from the
rest of Quebec, seven from other Ontario regions, one more from Alberta, one
from the BC Lower Mainland, one from Saskatchewan, one more from Manitoba, and
one from each of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Newfoundland.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">But Fair
Vote Canada’s </span><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/19CRR5jp76J2isjS7_K0aPA8RkSSmElD5zLkTKXwhgU0/edit" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">rural
and small-urban caucus says</a><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> 40 percent of Canadians live in population
centres below 100,000 people, share common concerns and value having local
representation to champion our area. So we note that those 20 additional NDP
MPs would be 12 from the big cities, plus Elaine Perez from Lethbridge, Janine
Seymour from Kenora, Aisha Jahangir from Guelph, Shailene Panylo from Oshawa, Vic
Sahai from Kingston, Ruth Ellen Brosseau from Berthier—Maskinongé, Serge Landry
from Moncton, and Mary Shortall from Newfoundland.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">And
the 12 from the big cities would be 8 diverse women and 4 men: climate-change
activist Anjali Appadurai in Vancouver, Métis candidate Robert Doucette in
Saskatoon, Métis candidate Melissa Chung-Mowat in Winnipeg, Unifor Women’s
Director and former MP Tracey Ramsey in Windsor, former MP Malcolm Allen in
Hamilton, Broadbent Institute Director Alejandra Bravo and FoodShare Director Paul
Taylor in Toronto, CUPE Economist Angella MacEwen in Ottawa, Iranian-born
international health specialist Nimâ Machouf and lawyer (former MP) Ève Péclet
in Montreal, CSN union staffer Tommy Bureau in Quebec City, and former MLA Lisa
Roberts in Halifax.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">An
accidental false majority government is far less likely. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Seven
from the Peoples Party? That’s a good thing, but only half the 14 they would
have elected under full PR (with 380 MPs) from the five provinces where they got
over 5%. “The far-right has not taken power in Europe. </span><a href="https://www.bowenislandundercurrent.com/opinion/letter-tackling-the-cynicism-in-politics-5096028"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">What
has been presented as a weakness of proportional representation is its strength</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">. It
does allow for far-right parties to win seats in parliaments, but that comes
with consequences. These parties are then out in the open, no cover of silence,
and exposed to the scrutiny of the public, media and other political parties.
And we can learn without agreeing to the party intents, why some people support
or join these kind of groups. Without knowing why, you can never address the
circumstances why people do.” In Germany, the AfD party has seats in the
federal parliament and 16 state legislatures. That’s 17 governing coalitions,
and all 17 excluded the AfD.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">(Note: this post was revised April 12, 2022.)<br /> </span></p>Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-74160273621691245772022-03-05T03:07:00.001-05:002023-11-03T01:53:42.763-04:00Many Liberals want a moderate proportional system. So here it is.<p><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Back
in 2013, when Justin Trudeau and Joyce Murray were both running to become Liberal
leader, the Leadership Debate was March 3, 2013. Joyce Murray says to Justin
Trudeau “If you were actually listening to Canadians you would know that
two-thirds of Canadians want proportional representation so that their vote
counts, and so that we don’t have the divisive toxic system that we have today,
so if you were listening to Canadians you would be going after proportional
representation . . ."</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Justin
Trudeau replies "The problem with proportional representation is that
every different model of proportional representation actually increases partisanship,
not reduces it . . . I understand people want proportional representation, but
too many people don’t understand the polarization and the micro-issues that
come through proportional representation." (Watch </span><a href="https://www.cpac.ca/episode?id=1beb88e3-8848-4fdd-9f88-b2fd59400466" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">the
video at 43:30</a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">He was
not the only Liberal worried about micro-issues and micro-parties. Liberal PR
supporters like Stéphane Dion also wanted a “moderate“ PR model.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">So
when Fair Vote Canada made submissions to the ERRE (Special Committee on Electoral
Reform), </span><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1K_FChiTdMH_iW3dnj2KqTTB6Sqe2rMRnRumaIxGUmRc/edit" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">the
MMP model we recommended, with open regional lists, had regions of only about eight
MPs</a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">. That’s 42 moderately proportional regions across the country. We said “The
aim in defining these top-up regions should be to ensure that all MPs are
accountable to real communities, or as the Jenkins Commission put
it, locally anchored to small areas.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">On the
votes cast in 2021, would this have elected 17 MPs from the Peoples’ Party of
Canada? Only 8, actually: 3 in Alberta, 3 in Ontario, 1 in New Brunswick, and 1
in Manitoba (the candidate who came second to Candice Bergen, which explains a
lot.)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">That’s
a good thing. “The far-right has not taken power in Europe. </span><a href="https://www.bowenislandundercurrent.com/opinion/letter-tackling-the-cynicism-in-politics-5096028" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">What
has been presented as a weakness of proportional representation is its strength</a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">.
It does allow for far-right parties to win seats in parliaments, but that comes
with consequences. These parties are then out in the open, no cover of silence,
and exposed to the scrutiny of the public, media and other political parties.
And we can learn without agreeing to the party intents, why some people support
or join these kind of groups. Without knowing why, you can never address the
circumstances why people do.” In Germany, the AfD party has seats in the
federal parliament and 16 state legislatures. That’s 17 governing coalitions,
and all 17 excluded the AfD.<br /><br /><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background-color: #f6f6f6; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif;">With open-list, the ballot would look like</span><a href="https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thetelegram.com%2Fmedia%2Fphotologue%2Fphotos%2Fcache%2Fmmp-ballot-3156305_large.jpg&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thetelegram.com%2Fnews%2Fregional%2Fprince-edward-islanders-choose-mmpr-in-electoral-reform-plebiscite-16551%2F&docid=uwblVZrdAnfH-M&tbnid=Sq8X0n0ymxi6VM%3A&vet=10ahUKEwjmr46X0ZnkAhVLT98KHeE6DOYQMwilAShVMFU..i&w=800&h=535&itg=1&bih=920&biw=1904&q=pei%20plebiscite%202016%20ballot&ved=0ahUKEwjmr46X0ZnkAhVLT98KHeE6DOYQMwilAShVMFU&iact=mrc&uact=8" style="background-color: #f6f6f6; color: #de7008; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif;" target="_blank"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif"> </span></a><a href="https://i.cbc.ca/1.3811524.1476882686!/fileImage/httpImage/mmp-ballot.png" style="background-color: #f6f6f6; color: #de7008; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif;" target="_blank"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">this ballot that PEI voters chose</span></a><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background-color: #f6f6f6; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif;"> in their 2016 plebiscite. Y</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background-color: #f6f6f6; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif;">ou can cast a personal vote for a candidate within the regional list.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Exaggerated
regional differences</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The
Liberals in 2021 saw more than 350,000 Liberal voters in Alberta and
Saskatchewan represented by only two MPs when they deserve seven. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">The
Conservatives saw more than 500,000 Conservative voters in the City of Toronto
and Peel and Halton regions represented by no one but Liberal MPs when they
deserved to elect 11 MPs.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">And we
all saw 1.3 million Bloc Quebecois voters elect 32 MPs while more than three
million NDP voters elected only 25 MPs.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2021/10/2021-canadian-election-results-under.html" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Details
are here</a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p>Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-27830910249573684442021-11-04T14:23:00.020-04:002021-11-26T12:00:44.176-05:00A negotiated element of proportionality<p>I<span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">deally,
a minority government would move forward with electoral reform by holding a
Citizens Assembly on Electoral Reform and agreeing to act on its
recommendations in time for an election in 2024.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">There
is an alternative compromise that would let the Liberals know what they had
agreed to: a negotiated compromise to introduce an element of proportionality.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">In
1979 the Pépin-Roberts Commission (the “Task Force on Canadian Unity”) proposed
electing an additional 60 MPs to the House of Commons to top-up the results
from each province, keeping the present ridings. That Commission was multi-partisan,
co-chaired by former Ontario Conservative Premier John Robarts. The Liberal government
received that report Jan. 25, 1979, but did not endorse it right away, nor did
Joe Clark’s Progressive Conservatives who took power four months later.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">However,
after Pierre Trudeau announced his resignation as Liberal leader (Nov. 21,
1979), three days later speaking at the University of Montreal he said “I think
we have to move in this direction because the national parties, even though
they have many voters in all parts of Canada, don’t have sitting in Ottawa
members of Parliament from that particular region on the government side. In the
case of Mr. Clark’s government, he doesn’t have a lot of members and ministers
in the house who could speak for Quebec, and in the case of our government we
didn’t have a lot of members or ministers who could speak for Alberta. You are
aware, of course, that the Pépin-Robarts Committee also recommended something
along those lines.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Sound
familiar?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">When
Joe Clark then lost a confidence vote, Pierre Trudeau withdrew his resignation
and was re-elected Prime Minister Feb. 18, 1980. But earlier that February he
told CBC he still supported the Pépin-Robarts recommendation. You can
listen to him here:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(246, 246, 246); margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-line-height-alt: 11.2pt;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/archives/when-pierre-trudeau-said-canada-needed-proportional-representation-1.5358177"><span style="color: #de7008;">https://www.cbc.ca/archives/when-pierre-trudeau-said-canada-needed-proportional-representation-1.5358177</span></a></span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">And
the 1980 Speech from the Throne pledged “You will be asked to appoint a
committee of Parliament to examine the electoral system in order to ensure that
the highest degree of representativeness and responsibility is achieved and
that the confidence of Canadians in parliamentary institutions is strengthened.”
<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: #f6f6f6; font-size: 12pt;">With the House of Commons larger now, the
Pépin-Robarts recommendation could be for 72 more MPs. But, okay, even Pierre
Trudeau couldn’t get reform past his nervous backbenchers.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background: rgb(246, 246, 246); font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">So let’s consider a modest 34 top-up MPs, a 10% solution. What would that look like?</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="background-color: #f6f6f6; font-size: 12pt;">I have done a simulation in 16 regions (4 in
Ontario, 3 in Quebec, 2 in BC, and the other 7 provinces are 1 region each). No
doubt the additional top-up MPs would be the local candidates who were their
parties' best runners-up in the region, with the highest vote percent.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: #f6f6f6; font-size: 12pt;">On the votes cast this year, by my simulation the
34 top-up MPs elected provincially (or regionally in Ontario, Quebec and BC) to
help represent voters currently unrepresented would be 6 more Liberals (1 in
Saskatchewan, 1 in Alberta, 2 in the BC Interior and Vancouver Island, 1 in Manitoba, and 1 in
Eastern Quebec), 5 more Conservatives (3 in Quebec and 2 in the GTA),
22 more New Democrats (10 in Ontario, 4 in Quebec, 3 in Atlantic Canada, 2 in
Alberta, 1 in Saskatchewan, 1 in Manitoba, and 1 in the BC Lower Mainland) and another
Green in BC. No more Bloc, currently over-represented. And I assume moderate thresholds
would keep out the PPC.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: #f6f6f6; font-size: 12pt;">Many pundits are saying the Liberals have
proven they cannot win a majority, so they do not have much to lose, but they
also will not fear a Conservative majority. With 187 seats needed for a
majority, the above result (166 Liberals, 124 Conservatives, 47 New Democrats,
32 Bloc, and 3 Greens) can provide stable government.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: #f6f6f6; font-size: 12pt;">Adding more seats will prevent Quebec or any
other province losing seats. And if the regular redistribution is complete by
the next election, the 34 top-up seats can overlay the new boundaries just as
they would today. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: #f6f6f6; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background: rgb(246, 246, 246); font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Would the additional 6 Liberals be worthwhile?
Start with Saskatchewan: their best runner-up was Sean McEachern, even though
he got only 27% of the vote in Ralph Goodale’s old riding of Regina—Wascana.
McEachern was</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> a special assistant to Goodale from 2003-6 when he was the
federal finance minister, then worked for the Saskatchewan Urban Municipalities
Association for 12 years becoming Policy Director, and then Chair of the Regina
Airport Authority, well-groomed to be Saskatchewan’s cabinet Minister, Goodale’s
successor. Then Eastern Quebec, where their best runner-up was their new star
candidate, well-known unionist Ann Gingras, long-time President of the CSN’s
regional council, previously a critic of the Liberals but recruited this time
by Justin Trudeau himself. In Manitoba, Doug Eyolfson, MP from 2015-2019 who chaired the Manitoba Liberal caucus, a doctor who helped draft a committee report recommending a National Pharmacare Plan.</span><b style="background-color: white; color: #202122; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"> </b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In Alberta: Ben Henderson, Edmonton City Councillor
since 2007, who ran in Amarjeet Sohi’s old seat. In BC: Dr. Nikki Macdonald,
Professor and Executive Director at the University of Victoria, environment
leader. And also: Kelowna’s Tim Krupa, who went from Kelowna to an MBA at Oxford,
worked in the PMO for three years, and on to Harvard and the CPP, who would
give a voice in caucus (and cabinet?) to the BC Interior where the Liberals were
shut out. All stars. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">And the 22 New Democrats would be no surprise: most were already in
target ridings.</span><span style="background: rgb(246, 246, 246);"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">A 10% solution is more modest than the dormant proposal of French President Emmanuel Macron for a </span><a href="https://wilfday.blogspot.com/2019/04/france-after-three-tries-at-using.html" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“dose of proportionality”</a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> for France: a 20% “proportional share" for Parliamentary elections. And it is more modest than the 15% to 20% share of top-up MPs </span><a href="https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20131205123204/http:/www.archive.official-documents.co.uk/document/cm40/4090/chap-9.htm" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">recommended for the UK by the Jenkins Commission</a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">.</span></p><div><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I
previously described another variation of a compromise model:</span></div><div><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2020/11/when-pierre-trudeau-supported.html" style="font-size: 12pt;">http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2020/11/when-pierre-trudeau-supported.html</a></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">and
here:<br />
<a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2020/03/making-every-vote-count-belanger.html">http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2020/03/making-every-vote-count-belanger.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">For
further reference on models with regional top-up MPs see</span><a href="https://wilfday.blogspot.com/2016/03/mmp-for-canada.html" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> MMP for Canada</a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br /></p>Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-11654587518610762302021-10-12T04:20:00.006-04:002022-11-18T02:10:59.044-05:002021 Canadian election results under moderate MMP.<p>Our voting system keeps tempting governments
to roll the dice and try for an accidental majority government with only 39% voter
support. Why should Canada put up with this system?</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">A system that rewards toxic partisanship?
Where at least 30% of voters are voting to stop another party winning? Which
fails to encourage minority governments to see working with other parties, or
Confidence and Support Agreements, or Coalitions as normal?</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">That leaves more than 350,000 Liberal
voters in Alberta and Saskatchewan represented by only two MPs when they
deserve seven? That leaves more than 500,000 Conservative voters in the City of
Toronto and the Peel and Halton regions represented by no one but Liberal MPs
when they deserved to elect 11 MPs? That lets 1.3 million Bloc Quebecois voters
elect 32 MPs while more than three million NDP voters elect only 25 MPs?</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">But wouldn’t proportional representation
encourage extremists? Would it give Maxime Bernier’s People Party 17 seats in
the House of Commons? Would it put MPs in the House who are not accountable to
real communities?</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">No, no, and no. Not if Canada uses the
Mixed Member Proportional system recommended by the Law Commission of Canada in
2004. And I’m using a threshold of 5% (like Germany and New Zealand), applied
at the provincial level (as Germany did at first, and as Canada must if we
don’t want Quebec’s election affected by votes cast in Alberta).</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">And I’m using a moderate level of proportionality,
where the regional MPs elected to top-up seats are elected in 42 small regions
across Canada, with an average size of only 8 MPs. This would elect only eight
Peoples Party MPs, not 17. (Its enemies would say, at least it keeps eight of
them off the streets.)</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Why should Canada keep using an outdated
voting system where 14 of those 42 regions would be one-party kingdoms, swept
by a single party?</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">With MMP, rural and urban voters in
every region would have effective votes and fair representation in
both government and opposition. That’s a </span><a href="https://www.fairvote.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2009Statement_of_Purpose.pdf" target="_blank"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">basic principle of
proportional representation</span></a><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">In my 2021 simulation, voters for every major party would have elected someone
in almost all of these 42 regions, except five (no NDP in two regions of Quebec
or in PEI, no Northern Alberta Liberal, and no Bloc in West Montreal).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The West’s unrepresented voters would
have helped elect diverse MPs from regions outside their strongholds, including
12 more New Democrats, nine more Liberals, and four PPC (who got over 5% in the
three Prairie provinces).</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Ontario’s unrepresented voters would
have helped elect diverse MPs from regions outside their strongholds, including
18 more New Democrats, 16 urban Conservatives, four Liberals outside the GTA,
and three MPs from the Peoples Party (they got 5.5% of the Ontario vote).</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Quebec’s unrepresented voters would have
helped elect diverse MPs from regions outside their strongholds, including
eight more New Democrats, eight more Conservatives, four more Bloc and three
more Liberals.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Atlantic Canada’s unrepresented voters
would have helped elect diverse MPs from regions outside their strongholds,
including five New Democrats, two more Conservatives, two Greens, and one PPC.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">(Detailed breakdown below) </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">The open-list or no-list MMP systems: Every MP
represents actual voters and real communities<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">We’re not talking about a model like
Israel’s with no local MPs, and candidates appointed by national parties. We’re
talking about the </span><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2016/03/mmp-for-canada.html" target="_blank"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">mixed member system</span></a><span face=""Arial",sans-serif"> designed by the Law Commission of
Canada, where every MP represents actual voters and real communities. More than
half of MPs will be elected by local ridings as we do today, preserving the
traditional link between voter and MP. The others are elected as regional MPs
for top-up seats, topping-up the numbers of MPs from your local region so the
total is proportional to the votes for each party.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">You have two votes. One is for your
local MP. The second helps elect regional MPs. With open-list MMP you cast a personal vote
for a candidate within the regional list.
Voters elect all the MPs. No one is guaranteed a seat. The region
is small enough that the regional MPs are accountable. Every vote counts: it’s
proportional. You vote for the regional candidate you prefer: it’s personal. No
closed lists. Or with the no-list MMP system, the regional MPs for top-up seats are the defeated local candidates who came closest to winning: best runners-up. Result: after the election, everyone has a local MP, plus a few
regional MPs.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">The broken promise</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The 2015 Liberal platform said "We
are committed to ensuring that 2015 will be the last federal election conducted
under the first-past-the-post voting system. We will convene an all-party
Parliamentary committee to review a wide variety of reforms, such as ranked
ballots, proportional representation, mandatory voting, and online
voting."</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">A lot of the Liberals were serious,
until the PMO told them to bite their tongues. Some are still speaking up, like
Wayne Long from New Brunswick and Nate Erskine-Smith in Toronto, and the
Liberal MPs on the House of Commons standing Committee who voted <span face="Arial, sans-serif">June 22 to study establishing a National
Citizens’ Assembly on Electoral Reform to make recommendations about how Canadians
elect Members of Parliament and how the make up of Parliament reflects the
votes cast by Canadians.</span><span face=""Open Sans", sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #666666; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Ranked ballots in single-member ridings
are off the table</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">When Justin Trudeau </span><a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/for-the-record-justin-trudeau-on-breaking-his-electoral-reform-promise/" target="_blank"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">announced the end
of electoral reform in February 2017</span></a><span face=""Arial",sans-serif"> he
said: his favourite option was “to rank your ballot. I have heard very clearly
that people think it would favour Liberals too much. And therefore I’m not
going near it, because I am not going to do something that everyone is
convinced is going to favour one party over another." He could also have
mentioned that only four percent of expert witnesses at the Electoral Reform
Committee had supported it. The Liberal MPs on the committee didn't even
mention it in their minority report, and when the media asked the Liberal
committee chair why not, he answered "nobody wants ranked ballots."</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Stéphane Dion was right</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Stéphane Dion <a href="https://nationalpost.com/opinion/stephane-dion-canada-needs-a-new-voting-system" target="_blank">wrote in 2012</a> </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">“I do not see why we should
maintain a voting system that makes our major parties appear less national and
our regions more politically opposed than they really are. I no longer want a
voting system that gives the impression that certain parties have given up on
Quebec, or on the West. On the contrary, the whole spectrum of parties, from
Greens to Conservatives, must embrace all the regions of Canada. In each
region, they must covet and be able to obtain seats proportionate to their
actual support. This is the main reason why I recommend replacing our voting
system.”</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Competing MPs:</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">You have a local MP who will
champion your community, and four or five competing regional MPs, normally including
someone you helped elect whose views best reflect your values.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">So you can vote for the local candidate
you like best regardless of party, without hurting your party, since it's the
party (regional) ballot that determines the party make-up of the House of
Commons. About 32% of voters split their ballots this way in New Zealand with a
similar system.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">This makes it easier for local MPs to
get the support of people of all political stripes. They can earn support for
their constituency-representation credentials, not just for their party. This
boosts the kind of support MPs bring with them into the House of Commons, thus
strengthening their independence.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">See </span><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2013/05/how-do-regional-mps-manage-to-serve.html" target="_blank"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">how it has worked
in Scotland</span></a><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Note: this is only a simulation</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">In any election, as </span><a href="http://prof./"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Prof.</span></a><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3guVBhKmDc" target="_blank"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif"> Dennis Pilon says</span></a><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">: "Now keep in mind that, when
you change the voting system, you also change the incentives that affect the
kinds of decisions that voters might make. For instance, we know that, when
every vote counts, voters won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or
casting a strategic vote. Thus, we should expect that support for
different parties might change." However, on the votes cast in 2021, my
simulation results in 120 Liberal MPs, 115 Conservatives, 65 New Democrats, 26
Bloc, eight PPC, and four Greens, due to the 5% threshold and small regions (with perfect province-wide proportionality it would have been 116 Conservatives, 115 Liberals, 62 NDP, 27 BQ, 13 PPC, and 5 Greens.)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""Arial",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Regional Breakdown</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">The West</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">In BC, the nine MPs from the Interior would
have included two Liberals like Kelowna’s Tim Krupa and Merrit’s Sarah Eves, and
another New Democrat like Wayne Stetski or Bill Sundhu.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The nine MPs from Surrey--Fraser Valley
woold have included two New Democrats like Surrey’s Sonia Andhi and Fraser
Valley’s Danielle (D J) Pohl.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The nine MPs from Vancouver-Richmond-Delta
would have included two Conservatives like Alice Wong and Kenny Chiu, and another
New Democrat like Vancouver’s Anjali Appadurai, and</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The eight MPs from Burnaby-Maple
Ridge-North Shore would have included a second Conservative MP like Nelly Shin.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The seven MPs from Vancouver Island would
have included a Liberal like Nikki Macdonald and two Conservatives like Port
McNeill’s Shelley Downey and Mary Lee from Comox.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">In Alberta, the 10 MPs from Calgary would
include a second Liberal like Sabrina Grover and two New Democrats like Kathleen
Johnson and Gurmit Bhachu or Raj Jessel.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">The 10 MPs from the Edmonton area
would include a second Liberal like Ben Henderson, a third New Democrat like Charmaine
St. Germain, and a People’s Party candidate like Murray MacKinnon</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">The eight MPs from South & Central Alberta,
rather than all Conservatives, would include an NDP candidate like Leduc's Hugo Charles or </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Elaine Perez </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">from Lethbridge, a Liberal like </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Devon Hargreave</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">s from Lethbridge, and a PPC candidate like Red Deer’s </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Megan Lim</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">The six MPs from Northern Alberta, rather
than all Conservatives, would include an NDP candidate like </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Gail Ungstad</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif"> from Slave Lake and a PPC candidate
like High Prairie's Darryl Boisson</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Saskatchewan’s MPs would not be all
Conservatives. The six MPs from Regina and Southern Saskatchewan would include
a Liberal MP like Sean McEachern and an NDP MP like Tria Donaldson. The eight MPs
from Saskatoon and Northern Saskatchewan would include two NDP MPs like Robert
Doucette and Clare Card, and a Liberal MP like Buckley Belanger.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">In Manitoba, the six MPs outside
Winnipeg would now include a Liberal MP like Shirley Robinson of Cross Lake
First Nation, and a Peoples’ Party of Canada MP like Solomon Wiebe in the
Pembina Valley, while the eight Winnipeg MPs would now include a Conservative
like Melanie Maher.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Ontario</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">In Ottawa-Cornwall’s 10 ridings,
NDP voters would have elected two MPs like Ottawa’s Angella MacEwen and
Lyse-Pascale Inamuco, while Conservative voters would have elected a third MP
like Ottawa’s Jennifer McAndrew.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">In Central East Ontario’s nine
ridings, Liberal voters would have re-elected two more MPs like Maryam Monsef and Neil Ellis, while NDP
voters would have elected two MPs like Kingston’s Vic Sahai and Deep
River’s Jodie Primeau or Peterborough’s Joy Lachica.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">In Durham-Rouge Park’s six ridings,
NDP voters would have elected an MP like Oshawa’s Shailene Panylo.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">In Scarborough--Don Valley’s eight ridings,
rather than all Liberals, Conservative voters would have elected two MPs like Yvonne
Robertson and </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Sabrina Zuniga</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">, and
an NDP MP like </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Guled Arale</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">In Toronto and East York’s eight ridings,
rather than all Liberals, NDP voters would have elected three MPs like Alejandra
Bravo, Paul Taylor and Clare Hacksel or Norm Di Pasquale, Conservative voters
would have elected an MP like Stephanie Osadchuk or Steven Taylor.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">In the eight ridings of Etobicoke-York-Willowdale,
rather than all Liberals, Conservative voters would have elected three MPs like
Joel Yakov Etienne, Geoffrey Turner and Geoff Pollock, while NDP voters would
have elected an MP like Hawa Mire or Matias de Dovitiis. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The 10 MPs from York Region would have
included <span style="background: white;">a New Democrat like
Benjamin Jenkins or Yvonne Kelly, and </span>another Conservative like
re-elected <span style="background: white;">Leona Alleslev.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The six MPs from Central Ontario
(Barrie-Owen Sound), rather than all Conservatives, would have included two
Liberals like Dr. Cynthia Wesley-Esquimaux of Chippewa of Georgina Island First
Nation, and Barrie’s Lisa-Marie Wilson; and a New Democrat like Gravenhurst’s
Heather Hay or Barrie’s Sarah Lochhead.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The seven MPs from Brampton—Mississauga
North, rather than all Liberals, would have included two Conservatives like Jasveen
Rattan and Jagdeep Singh, and a New Democrat like Jim McDowell or Gail
Bannister-Clarke.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The eight MPs from Mississauga—Halton,
rather than all Liberals, would have included three Conservatives like <span style="background: white;">Kerry Colborne, Michael Ras and Hanan
Rizkalla, </span>and a New Democrat like Lenaee Dupuis or Tom Takacs.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">In Hamilton-Niagara-Brant’s 11
ridings, NDP voters would have elected a second MP like former MP Malcolm Allen,
and the Peoples Party would have elected an MP like Norfolk’s Ken Gilpin.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">The eight MPs from Waterloo-Wellington-Dufferin
would (assuming Green MP Mike Morrice was elected in his riding) have included
an NDP MP like Guelph’s Aisha Jahangir, and a third Conservative MP like Waterloo
Region’s </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Carlene Hawley.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The seven MPs from London--Oxford--Perth—Huron
would have included a second NDP MP like London’s Dirka Prout.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">The six MPs from the Windsor-Sarnia
region would have included a second NDP MP like Tracey Ramsay from suburban
Windsor and a People’s Party MP like Chatham’s </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Liz Vallee</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">In Northern Ontario, Conservative voters
would have elected two more MPs like Sault Ste. Marie’s Sonny Spina
and North Bay’s Steven Trahan, while the PPC would have elected an MP like
Englehart’s Stephen MacLeod.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Quebec</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The eight MPs from East Montreal would have
included another New Democrat like Nimâ Machouf, a Conservative like Steve
Shanahan, and another Bloc MP like Simon Marchand.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The six MPs from West Montreal, rather
than all Liberals, would have included a Conservative like Frank Cavallaro and
a New Democrat like Emma Elbourne-Weinstock.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The eight MPs from Montreal-Nord—Laval, rather
than all Liberals, would have included a Conservative like Spyridonas Pettas, a
New Democrat like Ghada Chaabi or Ali Faour, and two Bloc MPs like Manon Lacharité
and Isabel Dion.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The nine MPs from Laurentides—Lanaudière,
rather than all Bloc, would have included two Liberals like former MP and MNA Linda
Lapointe and former MP Ramez Ayoub, a Conservative like Catherine Lefebvre of Deux-Montagnes,
and a New Democrat like Benoit Bourassa of Deux-Montagnes.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The ten MPs from Longueuil-Suroit would
have included a Conservative like Karen Cox or Brossard’s Marcos Alves, and a
New Democrat like Niklas Brake or Marc Audet.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The six MPs from Montérégie-est—Estrie would
have included a Conservative MP like Pierre Tremblay (Sherbrooke municipal
councillor) and an NDP MP like Marika Lalime.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The six MPs from Outaouais--Abitibi—Nord
would have included a Conservative MP like Michel Gauthier (former Editor of Le
Droit).</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The six MPs from Centre-du-Québec—Mauricie
would have included a New Democrat like former MP Ruth Ellen Brosseau and a
second Conservative like former Trois-Rivières mayor Yves Lévesque.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The 11 MPs from Quebec
City--Saguenay--Côte-Nord would have included a New Democrat like Tommy Bureau or
Camille Esther Garon.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">The eight MPs from Chaudière-Appalaches—Gaspésie
would have included a second Liberal </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">MP
like Léonie Lajoie, and a third Bloc MP like Guy Bernatchez.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Atlantic Canada</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The ten New Brunswick MPs would have
included an NDP MP like Serge Landry, a PPC MP like Jack Minor, and a Green MP
like Nicole O'Byrne.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The four PEI MPs would have included,
rather than all Liberals, a Conservative like Jody Sanderson or Doug Currie,
and a Green MP like Anna Keenan.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The eleven Nova Scotia MPs would have included
three New Democrats like Lisa Roberts, Kevin Payne and Jenna Chisholm.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">The seven MPs from Newfoundland and
Labrador would have included a second Conservative like Sharon Vokey and a New
Democrat like Mary Shortall.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-71843129836054831322020-11-30T00:11:00.000-05:002020-11-30T00:11:22.090-05:00When Pierre Trudeau supported Proportional Representation<p><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Many people
don’t know Pierre Trudeau supported Proportional Representation in 1980. You
can listen to him here:</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/archives/when-pierre-trudeau-said-canada-needed-proportional-representation-1.5358177">https://www.cbc.ca/archives/when-pierre-trudeau-said-canada-needed-proportional-representation-1.5358177</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Hearing
Pierre Trudeau explain why he supported proportional representation, his
reasons sound totally familiar 40 years later.</span></p><p><b><u><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.4px;">The Pépin-Robarts solution (now the Bélanger solution)</span></u></b></p><div><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">In the 1979 election, Liberals in Alberta cast 22% of the votes but elected zero
members – in fact they had only one Liberal MP west of Winnipeg. The Liberals
had no Saskatchewan MP after their young star Ralph Goodale lost his seat. And
conversely, Joe Clark’s Progressive Conservative Party got 13% of the Quebec vote
and only two members, and much the same for the NDP.</span></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Pierre Trudeau said “I think we have to move in this direction because the
national parties, even though they have many voters in all parts of Canada, don’t
have sitting in Ottawa members of Parliament from that particular region on the
government side. In the case of Mr. Clark’s government, he doesn’t have a lot
of members and ministers in the house who could speak for Quebec, and in the
case of our government we didn’t have a lot of members or ministers who could
speak for Alberta. You are aware, of course, that the Pépin-Robarts Committee
also recommended something along those lines.”</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
Pépin-Robarts Commission<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“To
move in the direction of proportional representation” was the solution recommended
by the Pépin-Roberts Commission Jan. 25, 1979. That Commission (the “Task Force
on Canadian Unity”) was multi-partisan, co-chaired by former Ontario Conservative
Premier John Robarts. They proposed electing an additional 60 MPs to the House
of Commons to top-up the results from each province, keeping the present ridings.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Trudeau
did not endorse it right away. The 1979 election was held May 22. Pierre Trudeau’s
government lost its majority, even though they actually got more votes than the
PCs. Even the Liberals and NDP combined were 2 seats short of a majority. Trudeau
resigned as PM June 3 and announced his resignation as Liberal leader Nov. 21. Three
days later, speaking at the University of Montreal, he endorsed the Pépin-Robarts
recommendation to give each province fair representation from voters for each
party. When Joe Clark then lost a confidence vote, Pierre Trudeau withdrew his resignation
and was re-elected Prime Minister Feb. 18, 1980. Earlier that February he told
CBC he still supported the Pépin-Robarts recommendation.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Those
additional 60 MPs would (in 1979) have included 23 Liberal MPs, 17 from the West:
3 from Alberta, 3 from Saskatchewan, 6 more from BC where they had only 1, 3
from the Territories,.and 2 more from Manitoba, plus 4 more from Ontario, I more
from Nova Scotia, and 1 from PEI. PC voters would have elected 7 more MPs from
Quebec. NDP voters would have elected MPs from Quebec, New Brunswick and
Alberta, and more from other provinces.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The actual
1979 election result was PCs 136, Liberals 114, NDP 26, Creditistes 6. With the
additional 60 provincial MPs, the results would have been 137 Liberals, 143
PCs, 51 New Democrats, and 11 Creditistes. With 172 seats needed for a
majority, the Liberals would have had to work with the NDP as they did from
1972 to 1974, or even form a coalition government. A perfectly proportional result
with 342 MPs would have been 140 Liberals, 125 PCs, 62 New Democrats, and 15
Creditistes, but the governmental outcome would have been the same either way.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Pierre’s
same reasons apply today<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Today,
40 years later, the Prime Minister should make his father’s argument, since the
Liberals once again have no MPs from Alberta and Saskatchewan, after their
Saskatchewan veteran Ralph Goodale once again lost his seat.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">With
the House of Commons larger now, the Pépin-Roberts recommendation could be for
72 more MPs. But even 60 more MPs, or even a modest 42 MPs, is worth looking
at.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">It’s a
semi-proportional solution: keep the present riding boundaries, and add some
additional MPs to top-up the results from each province or region. These extra
MPs will give all parties MPs from each region. They will make every vote count
to some extent, and will also make accidental majority governments far less
likely.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">It
could be permanent. Or it could be a fast solution, while the discussion
continues about whether to adopt full proportional representation, how a PR
model for Canada would work, and whether a Citizens Assembly on Electoral
Reform is a better way to settle these questions than holding a referendum?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Can an
expansion of the House be justified? In fact, it is inevitable. After the next
census, the smaller provinces will have their present seats protected again,
while the growing large provinces will be entitled to more MPs. This resulted
in 30 more MPs in 2015. The next census will have a similar result, maybe even
more.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
Bélanger Solution<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">A modest
42 additional MPs is the number of additional MPs </span><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2011/04/twelve-percent-solution.html" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">the
late Mauril Bélanger liked</a><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">. He was MP for Ottawa-Vanier for 21 years, one
of the Liberal MP supporters of proportional representation, and the man whose
bill changed "in all thy sons command" to "in all of us
command."</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F6F6F6; line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Does the Bélanger solution work?</span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F6F6F6; line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Is 42 extra MPs really enough? Would it have prevented a Harper false
majority in 2011? Checking the 2011 results, those 42 MPs would have been 17
Liberals, 12 New Democrats, 3 Greens, 5 Bloc, and 5 Conservatives (from Atlantic
Canada and Quebec). Harper would have had 171 MPs out of 350, four short of
half.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">More
about <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2020/03/making-every-vote-count-belanger.html">the
Belanger solution</a> here.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-83277266207388236542020-11-17T03:36:00.011-05:002020-11-21T03:11:20.693-05:00What would the 2020 BC election result have been under proportional representation?<p><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">The
MMP system </span><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2019/11/what-lessons-can-be-learned-from.html" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">preferred
by the majority of PR supporters</a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> in the 2018 referendum had a threshold of
5% for voters for a party to elect top-up MLAs. So I’ll start with the three
parties which got more than that threshold.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">The
NDP got 49.4% of the three-party vote, almost enough for a majority, but my projection
shows them with 43 of the 87 seats, one short of a majority. However, NDP
voters would have been better represented in the Interior and North.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Note:
this is only a simulation</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">In any
election, as </span><a href="http://prof./" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Prof.</a><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3guVBhKmDc" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;" target="_blank"> Dennis
Pilon says</a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">: "Now keep in mind that, when you change the voting
system, you also change the incentives that affect the kinds of decisions that
voters might make. For instance, we know that, when every vote counts, voters
won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or casting a strategic
vote. Thus, we should expect that support for different parties might
change."</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Better
regional representation</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">In the
14 seats of the Interior (including Kamloops—Thompson but not Cariboo), NDP
voters would have elected six MLAs rather than four. That might have included Sadie
Hunter from Kamloops and Aaron Sumexheltza from Fraser—Nicola (the Lower Nicola
Indian Band), or maybe Toni Boot from Penticton or Nicole Cherlet from Revelstoke.
The winners would be the regional NDP candidates who got the most votes (other
than those who had won local seats), so my examples are those who had gotten
the highest percent of the vote.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">The
Interior would have elected eight local MPs from larger ridings, and six
regional MLAs for top-up seats: six Liberals, six New Democrats, and two Greens.
Green voters might have elected Nicole Charlwood from Nelson and Amanda Poon
from Kelowna, or Andrew Duncan from Rossland or Dan Hines from Kamloops. I
have used the “largest remainder” calculation, which Germany used until
recently, because it is the simplest and most transparent. If Party A gets 6.4
seats and Party B gets 5.6 seats, who gets the 12</span><sup style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">th</sup><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> seat? Party B.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">In the
ten Northern seats NDP voters would have elected four MLAs, not just two. That
might have included Nicole Halbauer from Terrace and Kitsumkalum First Nation (Skeena)
and Scott Elliott from Quesnel (Cariboo North), or Anne Marie Sam from Nechako
Lakes and Nak’azdli Band, or Joan Atkinson, Mayor of Mackenzie District (Prince
George—Mackenzie). Green voters would have elected someone like MacKenzie Kerr
from Prince George. The North would still have ten MLAs (six local, four regional
MLAs for top-up seats).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Liberal
voters would have elected 31 MLAs, only 3 more than the 2020 result, but they
would have elected 17 MLAs from the Lower Mainland instead of only 10, and they
would have elected 3 MLAs from Vancouver Island instead of none at all.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Green
voters would have elected 13 MLAs. Three from the 16 ridings of Vancouver-North
Shore, such as Jeremy Valeriote from Whistler, Bridget Burns from East
Vancouver, and Kelly Tatham from Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, or Kim Darwin from
Sechelt, or Ian Goldman from Vancouver-Fairview. One from Burnaby-Tri-Cities-Maple
Ridge such as Cyrus Sy from New Westminster. One from Surrey-Delta-Richmond
like Peter van der Velden from Delta or Beverly (Pixie) Hobby from Surrey, a
former NDP candidate. One from the eight ridings of Fraser Valley-Langley such
as Abbotsford’s Aird Flavelle or Langley’s Cheryl Wiens. Two more from
Vancouver Island like Victoria school trustee Nicole Duncan, Annemieke Holthuis
or Jenn Neilson in Victoria, or Chris Istace from North Cowichan, two from the
Interior (see above) and one from the North (see above). </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Why do
the Greens get only 13 MLAs? Province-wide, they might deserve 13.59, while the
Liberals deserve 30.43. But the Liberals do better in the North which is
over-represented to give sparsely populated areas and indigenous minorities fair
representation, while the Greens ran only four candidates in those ten ridings,
giving a slight edge to the Liberals. This MMP model has 52 local MLAs, and 35 regional MLAs for top-up seats.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><b><u>Who would be the government?<o:p></o:p></u></b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">The
projected result is 43 NDP, 31 Liberals, 13 Greens. With the NDP one short of a
majority, I assume the NDP would have continued to govern with a confidence and
support agreement with the Greens, as they did since 2017. </span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">A coalition government might be even better, but
many Green MLAs say they will not be bound to vote along party lines, making it
difficult for them to be part of a government whose measures have to be sustained by a majority of MLAs for four years. (They did vote confidence in the NDP government from 2017 to 2020, but that's not quite the same thing.)</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> A Liberal-Green coalition government would not likely be workable. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">What about the BC Conservatives?</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The BC Conservative Party ran only 19
candidates in the 87 ridings, so they got only 1.9% of the vote, but at that
rate a full slate would have gotten 8.7%. Furthermore, to repeat</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">, when
every vote counts, voters won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or
casting a strategic vote. So the BC Conservatives would have cast enough votes
to elect some MLAs. Even with the few votes cast for those 19, if you ignore
the threshold they got enough votes to elect their leader Trevor Bolin in the
North, one in the Interior like party Vice-President Darryl Seres in <span style="background: rgb(254, 254, 254); color: #0a0a0a;">Osoyoos</span> or Kyle Delfing in
Vernon, and one in Fraser Valley-Langley like former Liberal Diane Janzen in
Chiliwack or party past-President Ryan Warawa in Langley.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: rgb(254, 254, 254); color: #0a0a0a; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Why think about proportional representation
in BC after the referendum outcome?</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Polling
evidence is clear: A simple pro-rep question could have won. It's clear that
some potential supporters voted against PR because they did not feel informed
enough, or perceived the whole process unacceptable, or found the options
unclear or unconvincing, or found the questions confusing, or feared MLAs being
appointed from party lists, or they were just afraid to vote for "the
mystery box.” The survey shows that large majorities of British Columbians
support basic PR concepts</span><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2019/11/what-lessons-can-be-learned-from.html" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">.
More details here</a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br /></p>Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-72805715349214733452020-08-25T22:53:00.015-04:002020-08-29T10:45:41.098-04:00Time for Canada’s NDP to move electoral reform forward<p><span face="">Justin
Trudeau’s broken promise to make every vote count cost the Liberals their
majority last year. It’s time for the NDP to act on their policy, adopted two
years ago, that the NDP would make proportional representation a condition for
support for any minority government.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="">As many
sources report, many Liberal MPs are quietly saying they know this issue cost
them many of the young voters they picked up in 2015, which in turn cost them their
majority.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face="" style="line-height: 115%;">Common
ground</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="">Of
course Justin Trudeau will resist reversing himself 180 degrees overnight. But
the electoral reform process ended in 2017 with <a href="https://www.ourcommons.ca/DocumentViewer/en/42-1/ERRE/report-3/page-435" target="_blank">the Liberal members stating</a> “we
recommend that the Government further undertake a period of comprehensive and
effective citizen engagement before proposing specific changes to the current
federal voting system. We believe that this engagement process cannot be
effectively completed before 2019.” The NDP platform in 2019 promised “We’ll
establish an independent citizen’s assembly to recommend the best way to put it
in place.” So there is common ground on how to move forward on this issue.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face="" style="line-height: 115%;">Parties
should work together</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="">During
the pandemic, everyone wants parties to work together, just as parties generally
do in countries with proportional representation. But if the Liberals are
tempted to roll the dice and try for a majority, and refuse to engage citizens about
Justin’s broken promise, the NDP should be ready.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face="" style="line-height: 115%;">Ranked
Ballots are off the table</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="">Justin
Trudeau </span><a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/for-the-record-justin-trudeau-on-breaking-his-electoral-reform-promise/" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">said
it himself on Feb. 10, 2017</a><span face="">: "I always felt that we could offer people to
give a preference on your ballot. To rank your ballot. A lot of people don’t
like it. A lot of people say it favours Liberals. I have heard very clearly that people don’t think that’s a good
thing, or that they think it </span><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-preferential-ballot-1.3332566" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">would
favour Liberals </a><span face="">too much. And therefore I’m not going near it, because
I am not going to do something that everyone is convinced is going to favour
one party over another.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="">Not
even the Liberal ERRE minority report recommend the ranked ballot. When the
media asked why, the ERRE chair, </span><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/althia-raj/maryam-monsef-electoral-reform-committee-insult_b_13369420.html" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Liberal
Francis Scarpaleggia, said bluntly</a><span face=""> “nobody wants ranked ballots.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="">I admit
I could not have said it better. </span><span face=""> </span><span face="">So </span><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2019/10/how-would-proportional-representation.html" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">only
proportional representation</a><span face=""> will make every vote count.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face="" style="line-height: 115%;">National
NDP Policy</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="">In February
2018 the NDP national convention passed overwhelmingly a resolution that:</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="" style="line-height: 115%;">
"That the New Democratic Party of Canada reiterate its support for Mixed
Member Proportional Representation and ensure that Mixed Member Proportional
Representation be given a high profile in the NDP platform in the next federal
election.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="" style="line-height: 115%;">And that
an NDP majority government will bring in proportional representation in time
for the next election. In a minority parliament, the NDP would make
proportional representation a condition for any potential alliance, or for
support for any minority government." The arguments leading the convention
to support this were Jagmeet’s own arguments, his statements during the leadership
campaign and since. After three speakers on each side, it passed
overwhelmingly. The resolution had been submitted to the Convention by 15 NDP riding associations across Canada.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face="" style="line-height: 115%;">Every
MP will face the voters</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="">In the
past six years I have heard no New Democrat support a model with closed party
lists. As </span><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-open-list-mixed-member-proportional.html" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">the
Law Commission of Canada recommended</a><span face=""> in 2004, "Based on the feedback
received during our consultation process, many Canadian voters would also most
likely desire the flexibility of open lists in a mixed member proportional
system. In essence, allowing voters to choose a candidate from the list
provides voters with the ability to select a specific individual and hold them
accountable for their actions should they be elected."</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face="" style="line-height: 115%;">The
broken promise cost them their majority</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="">In at
least 16 ridings in 2015 the Liberal stick (Stop Harper) and carrot (this is
the last time you will have to vote strategically and be represented by your
second choice) had picked up enough Green and NDP votes for a Liberal candidate
to pick up a seat. That includes some new voters who would have voted NDP or
Green but switched to Liberal. Millennials were especially attracted by the
pledge “we will make every vote count.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="">The
2019 stick (Stop Scheer) held a few of those switchers, but with the carrot
vanished, and the promises of “Sunny Ways” losing their shine, enough of those
Green and NDP votes went back to the Greens or NDP to sink the Liberal in these
16 ridings. They fell 13 short of a majority.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="">The average
in these 16 ridings was this: in 2015 the Liberals picked up about 5,200 votes
from the NDP and about 700 from the Green Party. That’s about 5,900 mostly
young voters. In 2019 they lost about 3,300 of them on average to the NDP and
Greens. In each of these ridings that swing cost the Liberals the seat.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="">Four
Liberal losses were to the NDP, Green or an Independent advocating proportional
representation: St. John's East, Winnipeg Centre, Fredericton, and Vancouver
Granville. The other 12 were to a Conservative: Calgary Centre, Charleswood—St.
James—Assiniboia—Headingley, Kildonan—St. Paul, Northumberland—Peterborough
South, Hastings—Lennox & Addington, Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, Steveston—Richmond
East, Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon, Kelowna—Lake Country, Fundy Royal, New
Brunswick Southwest, and Tobique—Mactaquac.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="">By
contrast, in Beaches—East York Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith had won in
2015 on the same promise, but voted in the House for electoral reform, breaking
ranks with the party. He won last fall with an increased majority.<br /><br /><b><u>BC Referendum<br /></u></b><br />PR-sceptics may respond "the loss of the BC referendum changes things." But <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2019/11/what-lessons-can-be-learned-from.html" target="_blank">my own conclusion from polling data</a> is "</span><span style="background-color: #f6f6f6; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Thousands of electoral reformers spent six months defending the process and how it was arrived at. It’s hard to admit that the process was the problem. But the polling evidence is clear. With a referendum on first-past-the-post versus a fully fleshed-out alternative, designed and explained via deep public consultation, PR would have won. Reformers should not be afraid to say so."</span> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""><br /><br /></span></p>Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-15518050338152242222020-03-02T16:09:00.002-05:002020-11-30T00:11:09.076-05:00Making every vote count: the Bélanger solution<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The
Bélanger solution<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Looking
at the Canadian scene today, what Liberal can tolerate thinking of an
accidental majority Conservative government elected by 40% of voters? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Anyone
who forgets Stephen Harper in 2011 cannot forget that Doug Ford did so in 2018.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Liberal
Convention delegates in 2014 voted overwhelmingly for Resolution 31 from the
federal caucus for electoral reform: a preferential ballot and/or a form of
proportional representation. The preferential ballot is off the table: As
Justin <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/for-the-record-justin-trudeau-on-breaking-his-electoral-reform-promise/" target="_blank">Trudeau wisely said Feb. 10, 2017</a>, ”I have heard very clearly that
people think it would favour Liberals too much. And therefore I’m not going
near it, because I am not going to do something that everyone is convinced is
going to favour one party over another.” And anyway, it would never pass the
present House, no other party would support it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Can an accidental Conservative majority be prevented quickly and simply? Without a completely new system with new
riding boundaries? A fast solution while the discussion continues about whether
to adopt full proportional representation, how a PR model for Canada would
work, and whether a Citizens Assembly on Electoral Reform is a better way to
settle these questions than holding a referendum?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">How
about a semi-proportional solution: keep the present ridings, and add 42
regional MPs to top-up the results from each region? These 42 extra MPs will
not only make accidental majority governments far less likely, they would also
make every vote count to some extent, and give all parties MPs from each
region.<br />
<br />
This 42 is the number of additional MPs <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2011/04/twelve-percent-solution.html">the
late Mauril Bélanger liked</a>. He was MP for Ottawa-Vanier for 21 years, one
of the Liberal MP supporters of proportional representation, and the man whose
bill changed "in all thy sons command" to "in all of us
command." :<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">It’s
a moderate number: 60 additional MPs were recommended by "A Future
Together," the report of the Pepin-Robarts Commission (Task Force on
Canadian Unity) in 1979. Pierre Trudeau <a href="https://news.google.ca/newspapers?id=wotVAAAAIBAJ&sjid=pj8NAAAAIBAJ&pg=1026%2C3264669">called
this “an excellent idea.</a>”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
<b><u>A “national conversation?”<br />
</u></b><br />
That isn’t just a partisan fix. How can we have a "national
conversation" in Parliament when more than half our voices are shut out?
When some voices get a megaphone - such as Conservatives occupying every seat
in Saskatchewan and Liberals occupying every seat in Toronto - while others are
silenced? In 2019, this model would have let voters for every major party elect
MPs from each province except PEI, and Greens elect MPs from five provinces.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Does
the Bélanger solution work?<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Is
42 extra MPs really enough? Would it have prevented a Harper false majority in
2011? Checking the 2011 results, those 42 MPs would have been 17 Liberals, 12
New Democrats, 3 Greens, 5 Bloc, and 5 Conservatives (from Atlantic Canada and
Quebec). Harper would have had 171 MPs out of 350, four short of half.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I’m
assuming the 42 MPs are divided among the provinces in proportion to their
present numbers of MPs. My 2011 simulation generates two Liberal regional MPs
from the BC Lower Mainland, one from the rest of BC, one from Northern Alberta, one from Southern Alberta, one from Manitoba, two from Southwest Ontario, two from
South Central Ontario, one from Peel-Halton, two from Toronto, two from Northern and
Central Ontario, one from Central and Western Quebec, and one from Eastern
Quebec.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Can
an expansion of the House be justified? In fact, it is inevitable. After the
next census, the smaller provinces will have their present seats protected,
while the growing large provinces will be entitled to more MPs. This resulted
in 30 more MPs in 2015. The next census will have a similar result, maybe even
more.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The
same ballot, with best runners-up? or open-list?<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">With
20 regions, they each have an average of 17 local MPs and 2 regional MPs. One alternative,
keeping our present ballot, is to elect the one or two local candidates of the
under-represented party who got the highest vote percent without winning. That’s
the “best runners-up” model used by the German province of Baden-Wurttemberg
and by Sweden. Or, like <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2019/10/how-would-proportional-representation.html">a
normal Mixed Member Proportional system</a>, we could elect the regional MPs from
open regional lists. With the two-vote ballot you vote for your local MP, and
you also vote for your favourite regional candidate of the party you want to
see in government. This option makes regional MPs almost as accountable as under
the 30 regions possible with normal MMP.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
<b><u>An immediate solution<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></u></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">There
must be many Liberal MPs who will like this. Not because of how it would have
worked in 2019 (six more Liberal MPs from the West: Ralph Goodale, Randy
Boissonnault, Amarjeet Sohi, Nirmala Naidoo (Calgary) or Kent Hehr, Stephen
Fuhr, and Nikki Macdonald or Mary Ann Murphy), but because it would provide a good
chance that no accidental majority government will result from the next
election.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">(Note: revised Nov. 30, 2020)</span><br />
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif"><b><u><br /></u></b></span>
</div>
Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-18515985672962977012019-11-20T03:15:00.008-05:002020-11-09T02:32:31.094-05:00What lessons can be learned from the results of the 2018 BC referendum on proportional representation?<div><span face="Arial, sans-serif">As
I expected, a post-referendum poll shows that BC residents still like PR.</span></div><div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">“A
simple pro-rep question could have won” said the headline:</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">
<a href="https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/a-simple-pro-rep-question-could-have-won-poll-finds">https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/a-simple-pro-rep-question-could-have-won-poll-finds</a><br />
<br />
<b><u>Summary<o:p></o:p></u></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">From
this poll, it's clear that some potential supporters voted against PR because
they did not feel informed enough, or perceived the whole process unacceptable,
or found the options unclear or unconvincing, or found the questions confusing,
or feared MLAs being appointed from party lists, or they were just afraid to
vote for "the mystery box." (See below).</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">A poor process</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">One can argue that this referendum should never have been held, but it was in
the NDP Platform. However, after Attorney-General David Eby was appointed to be
the independent Minister in Charge, he conducted consultations and made
recommendations concerning how the referendum process should be conducted. It
ended up with a two-part question with three systems on the ballot.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">The
referendum timing was intended to be fast, to leave time for Elections BC to hold boundaries hearings for new ridings for the 2021 election, </span>with a simple referendum. It did not
allow enough time for public education on three systems. The consequences of
this are discussed below.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">Thousands
of electoral reformers spent six months defending the process and how it was
arrived at. It’s hard to admit that the process was the problem. But the
polling evidence is clear. With a referendum on first-past-the-post versus one fully fleshed-out alternative, designed and explained via deep public
consultation, PR would have won. Reformers should not be afraid to say so.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Research Co. poll:</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">An
online study conducted from December 18 to December 20, 2018, among 803 adults
in British Columbia.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif"><a href="https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Tables_ElectoralReferendum_21Dec2018.pdf">https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Tables_ElectoralReferendum_21Dec2018.pdf</a><br />
<br />
(There was also an Angus Reid poll, but it asked less useful questions, and
gave no results from non-voters. And its sample did not match the referendum outcome.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">The
Research Co. poll mirrored the results of the referendum, with 49% of
respondents reporting they voted for the first-past-the-post system, 31% voting
to move to a proportional representation system, and 20% not casting a ballot.
Once the non-voters are removed, the result of the “exit poll” is 61% choosing
to retain the existing system and 39% opting to change it.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">The
survey shows that large majorities of British Columbians support basic PR
concepts such as attempting to eliminate “strategic voting” (75%), that a party
should only win majority power if its candidates won a majority of the votes
(70%), a party not governing with a majority of seats but with fewer than 40%
of all votes cast (63%), and MLAs being elected from different parties in close
proportion to how voters voted in each region voted (57%). (Also, the notion of
smaller parties holding the balance of power influenced the way 55% of voters
voted, but the poll does not say what percent found that good and what percent
bad.)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">Majorities
of British Columbians also endorse other concepts, such as that the voting
system should not disadvantage independent candidates (70%), almost all votes
helping elect an MLA (64%), voters being able to choose among different
candidates from their preferred party (58%), and voters being able to make
their vote count for a more popular candidate rather than having it ignored
(52%).</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Why did PR lose?</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">The
No. 1 issue for those who chose not to vote is “not feeling informed enough”
(48%). While some non-voters also claimed they never received a ballot (18%) or
simply forgot to mail it (17%), nothing came close to the uneasy feeling of
being in the dark.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">When
asked about issues that influenced the way they voted, majorities of British
Columbians mention</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">
1. the details of the three options on the second question not being fully
fleshed out (59%),<br />
2. the three options listed on the second question being confusing and not
clearly explained (55%), and<br />
3. MLAs being appointed from party lists (53%).</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">Many refused to vote yes on the first question when the result of the second question was a "mystery box," which might be an unknown system.</span></p><div>The
no side was highly effective at convincing people that many details would be
decided later. In fact, other than closed lists, not many details that made
much of a practical difference were left to be decided later, but since voters
were confused and ill-informed, explaining this was too hard. The
conservative news media were no help.</div><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">This
is no surprise. The No campaign’s best messages were bound to be “we don’t
understand this enough” and “we don’t know enough.” Research has shown that low
info voters will take the status quo when they don't understand the
alternative. The opposition preyed on those fears.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">Unfortunately,
the Yes campaign played into its weakness, merely playing defence, reassuring
voters of the benefits. This didn’t work. Voters couldn’t focus on what’s wrong
with winner-take-all voting, when they were confused about PR.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Confusion on PR caused other problems: 50% of respondents were concerned over
coalition deals being worked out “in the back room,” 49% over fringe or
extremist parties winning seats, urban centres having disproportionate
influence over future governments, and the details of the chosen proportional
representation option being left to an all-party committee. Slightly smaller
proportions of voters were influenced by the notion that voters from rural
areas might lose local representation (45%) or the government possibly rigging
the process for partisan gain (41%).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">The
PEI plebiscite had shown that a multi-option referendum could work well. Some
reformers told Attorney-General Eby that a multi-option referendum would be
better in BC. However, when New Zealand held their first multi-option
referendum in 1992, every household in the country received a booklet in the
mail, with detailed explanations of all four models, much more detail than
Elections BC could give. New Zealand’s public education program ran for many
months. It included TV debates with proponents of each of the four models. Of
the 55% of registered electors who took part, an overwhelming 85% voted to
change their electoral system. In the second part of the same vote, 70%
favoured MMP.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">So
a good multi-option referendum is indeed possible. There was no time for that
in BC, unless the referendum would have been the next spring, two years into
the government’s mandate, when it might well have been suffering from a
mid-term slump that would have led to PR’s defeat. Besides, Elections BC needed more time for new boundaries. No one wanted to wait that
long. But a fast process was incompatible, as we have just seen, with a
multi-option referendum.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">Reformers
expected voters to accept that the first question was the most important
(although Elections BC materials did not say that). But many felt overwhelmed
deciding on systems when they were not familiar with the systems on the ballot.
<br /><br />Can
reformers learn how to scale up their greatest strength – relationships -- to
withstand the forces of No? Not in a fast process.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">As
a Globe and Mail editorial said “Even the details of the proposed mixed-member
proportional system, the system that was supposed to win the referendum, were
to be left to the discretion of the government. It was like asking someone if
they wanted the usual for lunch, or a sandwich. What kind of sandwich? Can’t
say. Vote “sandwich” and leave it to the politicians to figure what goes
between the bread."</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Political leadership</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">Many
have complained of the lack of political leadership from the NDP. However, in
March 2017 when reformers interviewed Horgan, he said “Mixed Member Proportional
(MMP) is the preferred electoral system if we’re going to change from what we
have now. It’s party policy and if people don’t like it, there’s always
the party convention." (Meaning: don’t try to change party policy
undemocratically, it was set by Convention.) "I’m confident that the group
I’m leading now is behind me on this.” Regardless whether the platform
mentioned MMP, every MLA knew it was party policy.<br /><br />Right after the 2017 election, the BC NDP and Greens signed a Confidence and Supply Agreement committing both the New Democrat Government and the Green Caucus to
proportional representation. "Legislation will be introduced in the 1st session that:
(1) A referendum on proportional representation will take place in the fall of 2018,
concurrent with the next municipal election; and
(2) The form of proportional representation approved in the referendum will be
enacted for the next provincial election. The parties agree to both campaign actively in support of the agreed-upon form of
proportional representation." A fast</span> referendum on a single form of PR. Not enough time for public education on three systems. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">Eby’s non-partisan experts took FVC’s input and came up with a new referendum model. However, no NDP MLA was elected on a platform of holding a referendum on a "mystery box" that might have chosen an unknown system.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">Although
Fair Vote Canada has not supported any closed-list model since 2013, FVC
somehow failed to convince Eby to keep it off the table. About two months
before the campaign started, the BC NDP's own pro-PR website said the MMP model
would be open-list, with a sample open-list ballot; but this contradicted the Elections
BC materials. So by the time Horgan belatedly took closed-list MMP off the
table, at least 53% of referendum voters either didn’t hear him or didn’t
believe him.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">Reformers
could have had strong NDP leadership. Instead, the process reduced Horgan to
asking voters, feebly, to “take a leap of faith.” Many NDP voters liked the result of the 2017 election, and had lost some appetite for PR.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">By
contrast, the MDN in Quebec worked to build up five-party support for a
specific model of regional MMP which MDN had endorsed first.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Back to the Research Co. poll: “While BC Liberal voters from 2017 were
decidedly more likely to support first past the post (82%), only 53% (really?)
of those who say they voted for the NDP and the Greens favoured proportional
representation.” (The Angus Reid poll found the NDP voters who voted in the
referendum split 70/30, but 70% of 42% of 716,421 is 210,628, or 39% of the yes
votes, so it’s not that simple.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">“Almost four-in-five British Columbians (78%) agree that politicians are in a
conflict of interest when it comes to making decisions about how we vote, and
would like any future proposals to involve an independent, non-partisan
citizens’ body. This includes 77% of those who voted for Proportional
Representation and 82% of those who voted to keep the First Past the Post
system.” A logical conclusion when BC voters look at how the politicians
screwed this process up.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">The Liberals made it a partisan question</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">The
party opposed campaigned for NO like their life depended on it, the most Trumpian campaign Canada has ever seen. Many say that
partisan interests lie at the core of the problem, including the partisan
interests of political parties elected to form government thanks to FPTP, the
partisan interests of incumbents who fear losing their seats were the electoral
system to be changed or the partisan preferences of voters themselves. One of
their messages was that the referendum was RIGGED (“stacked deck” “rigged
game”) in favour of the NDP and Greens, and the idea was that the NDP/Greens
would be in power forever with PR - they made sure their Liberal voters heard
this, despite there being no factual basis. When the debate was held between
Horgan and Wilkinson, that made the referendum even more of a partisan fight
than it already was.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">Referendums
rarely achieve the social license for changes. As the recent Brexit and BC
referendums have shown, referendums are divisive and not a way to develop
social consensus, especially with “opponent” and “proponent” groups expected to
duke it out as a dystopian form of “public education.”</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Turnout</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">Does
low turnout correlate with low support for PR? Yes, and the Yes campaign failed
on ethnic/minority out-reach. But that’s only part of the story. In last year's
provincial election in BC, 1,973,914 voters cast ballots. In this referendum,
1,403,358 completed voting packages were returned to Elections BC. That's
570,556 previous voters who did not vote. Still, if they had all voted, it
would have taken 441,137 of them (78% of those non-voters) to vote for PR to
change the result. Plus everyone who turned 18 in the past 16 months, which
should have given the PR side a boost. But the mail-in ballot made the turnout
worse because young people don't use mail. Being more likely not to have up to
date voter registration, many didn't receive their ballot.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">The silver living: MMP won</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">The
referendum was not a complete loss. Some PR supporters in BC were still trying
to fight the 2009 referendum over again, hoping to resurrect BC-STV. MMP won
the first round on Question 2, and then won 63.05% on the final count. Since it
also won the 2016 PEI plebiscite, and is the only model being considered in
Quebec, this simplifies the debate on both sides of the Rockies.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2010/04/what-would-british-columbia-legislature.html" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;" target="_blank">As previously noted,</a><span face="Arial, sans-serif"> the BC-STV model designed by the
Electoral Boundaries Commission was not very proportional. With each district
having, on average, only 4.25 MLAs, Green Party voters, who deserved to elect
seven MLAs on the votes cast in 2009, would have been lucky to elect even three
MLAs. Yet many BC voters complained that the proposed 20 districts, with an
average population of about 222,000, were already unmanageably-large. This is
not a trivial point. In a country with as much geography as Canada, fitting our
geography into the voting system is the major design issue.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">Anecdotal evidence</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">Every
one has their favourite anecdotal comments. Here are mine, which match the
polling results. Two of them are from friends I trust, retired Ontario teachers
who moved to BC.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">“I
voted to keep FPTP not because I reject PR, but I was against all the devilish
details of implementation being left to be decided later – no doubt in a way
that favours the ruling party. We had no option except FPTP. The PR choices
were vague and scant with details and explanations. It appeared that if FPTP
was defeated, politicians would decide how to implement PR. Unacceptable
to 61 percent of us. The yes PR side campaign was a cluster f of “the right
thing and the high road” but no details. That’s why 61 percent of us said NO!!”</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">“This campaign DID NOT properly explain what PR meant and until people get an
understanding of what it is, they will be afraid to vote for it. There must be
a way to make it simple and understandable. So disappointed. Let's keep
advocating for it in the sense of educating people about it.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">People
don't trust politicians to decide anything about electoral reform for totally
understandable reasons. Unfortunately, politicians don't want to give up
control to processes like citizens assemblies that people do trust more to
decide details. “If I’d lived in BC, I wouldn’t have been happy with a blank
cheque checkbox.”</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">“The
politically informed and engaged typically understand the big picture (and
often the finer details) of PR -- not so for the average voter or citizen.
Anyone who doesn't understand (or take the time to understand) an alternative
will favour the status quo or not vote.”</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">Last
word to former BC Citizens Assembly member Shoni Field: "Did women give up
fighting to get the vote after their first few failures? No, this is a long
haul fight. We'd hoped that BC would be the first in Canada, and maybe now
they'll be the last. But change is inevitable and one day we'll be using a
proportional system and we'll keep working to make that happen.”</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">(Updated August 9, 2020.)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif"><br /></span></p></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span face="arial, sans-serif"><span face="calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt;">
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--></span></span></div>
Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-76978293384708087462019-10-27T03:41:00.003-04:002021-01-27T03:21:25.638-05:00How would proportional representation fix our broken voting system?<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Has this year’s election left
the country more divided than ever?<br />
<br />
The House of Commons is divided, sure, because of our broken electoral system. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Alberta and Saskatchewan
voters voted 68.1% Conservative, yes, but somehow they elected 98% of the MPs
from those provinces. Sounds like an old-fashioned Russian election? About
350,000 Liberal voters found their votes didn’t count.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">On the other hand, Toronto,
Peel Region and Halton Region elected 40 Liberal MPs and no others. The
Liberals got only 53% of those votes, but the other 967,000 voters found their votes
didn’t count. In fact, across Canada, more voters voted Conservative than
Liberal.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">The broken promise<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">The 2015 Liberal platform
said "We are committed to ensuring that 2015 will be the last federal election
conducted under the first-past-the-post voting system. We will convene an
all-party Parliamentary committee to review a wide variety of reforms, such as
ranked ballots, proportional representation, mandatory voting, and online
voting."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">A lot of the Liberals were
serious. Some still are, like Wayne Long from New Brunswick who just said he “regrets
not being more outspoken when his party backed off its promise of electoral
reform. He has no doubt there are other Liberals who would like to revisit the
conversation.” In a House of Minorities, where the Standing Committees have no
government majority, we can certainly expect this conversation to be revisited<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Imagine a House of
Commons elected by Proportional Representation<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">What would the results of
this year’s election be, with proportional representation? Let’s look the
result with the votes cast this year, with the Mixed Member Proportional
system: No PMO running a one-party government elected by only 39.5% of the
votes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">On the votes as
cast, the final count by province-wide proportionality (with a 4% threshold
in each province) is Liberals 116, Conservatives 118, NDP 56, Bloc 26, Greens 21.
That’s what Canadians voted for. The Constitution Act gives each province
specified numbers of MPs, so maintaining this means <a href="https://wilfday.blogspot.com/2014/01/is-proportional-representation.html">no
constitutional amendment is required</a>. A detailed simulation for each region
is below.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Stéphane Dion was
right<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Stéphane Dion <a href="http://ideefederale.ca/documents/Dion_ang.pdf" target="_blank">wrote in
2012</a> “I do not see why we should maintain a voting system that makes
our major parties appear less national and our regions more politically opposed
than they really are. I no longer want a voting system that gives the
impression that certain parties have given up on Quebec, or on the West. On the
contrary, the whole spectrum of parties, from Greens to Conservatives, must
embrace all the regions of Canada. In each region, they must covet and be able
to obtain seats proportionate to their actual support. This is the main reason
why I recommend replacing our voting system.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif"><br />
<b><u>Never again<o:p></o:p></u></b></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">The first effect of using
proportional representation would have been to end strategic voting. Canadian
voters want more than two choices, if they can vote for what they want. A </span><a href="https://www.fairvote.ca/2019/09/17/angusreidpoll/" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">poll by Angus Reid Sept.
17 showed</a><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> 77% of respondents support moving towards a system of
proportional representation.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif"><br />
<b><u>A Stable Coalition government<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></u></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Like most countries with
proportional representation, no party would have an incentive to roll the dice
and hope for an accidental majority. They would form a stable coalition government
with a four-year term. <a href="https://wilfday.blogspot.com/2016/02/many-coalition-governments-in-canada.html" target="_blank">Canada has seen 11 coalition governments</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Ranked ballots in
single-member ridings are off the table<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">When Justin Trudeau <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/for-the-record-justin-trudeau-on-breaking-his-electoral-reform-promise/" target="_blank">announced the end of electoral reform in February 2017</a> he
said: his favourite option was “to rank your ballot. I have heard very clearly
that people think it would favour Liberals too much. And therefore I’m not
going near it, because I am not going to do something that everyone is
convinced is going to favour one party over another." He could also have
mentioned that only four percent of expert witnesses at the Electoral Reform
Committee had supported it. The Liberal MPs on the committee didn't even
mention it in their minority report, and when the media asked the Liberal
committee chair why not, he answered "nobody wants ranked ballots."<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Stéphane Dion’s 2013 line
was “Preferential voting . . . does nothing to correct the distortion between
votes and seats and the under-representation of national parties compared to
regional ones.” Only proportional representation will make every vote
count.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif"><br />
Of citizens who showed up, <a href="https://www.fairvote.ca/2017/03/06/myth-7-was-there-no-consensus/" target="_blank">87% called for proportional representation</a>. Did we fail?
No, we succeeded. We stopped the PMO’s bait-and-switch operation. We not only
stopped it, we exposed it. I not only want my vote to count, I want my
neighbour’s vote to count. As the posters said in New Zealand, in the winning
campaign to keep MMP, “Your vote is worth exactly the same as mine and that's a
powerful thing.”<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">The open-list MMP
system: Every MP represents actual voters and real communities<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">We’re not talking about a
model with candidates appointed by central parties. We’re talking
about the <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2016/03/mmp-for-canada.html" target="_blank">mixed
member system</a> designed by the Law Commission of Canada, where every MP
represents actual voters and real communities. Almost 60% of MPs will be
elected by local ridings as we do today, preserving the traditional link
between voter and MP. The other 40% are elected as regional MPs, topping-up the
numbers of MPs from your local region so the total is proportional to the votes
for each party.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">You have two votes. One is
for your local MP. The second helps elect regional MPs, topping-up the
numbers of MPs from your local region so the total is proportional to the votes
for each party. You cast a personal vote for a candidate within the
regional list. This is commonly called “open list.” Voters elect all the
MPs. No one is guaranteed a seat. The region is small enough that the
regional MPs are accountable. Every vote counts: it’s proportional. You vote
for the regional candidate you prefer: it’s personal. There are no closed
lists. Result: after the election, everyone has a local MP, plus a few regional
MPs, likely including someone they helped elect.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Competing MPs:<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">You have a local MP who
will champion your community, and about five competing regional MPs, normally
including one whose views best reflect your values.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">So you can vote for the
local candidate you like best regardless of party, without hurting your party,
since it's the party (regional) ballot that determines the party make-up of the
legislature. About 32% of voters split their ballots this way in New Zealand
with a similar system.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">This makes it easier for
local MPs to get the support of people of all political stripes. They can earn
support for their constituency-representation credentials, not just for their
party. This boosts the kind of support MPs bring with them into the House of
Commons, thus strengthening their independence.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Did your vote count?<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">The 68% turnout in 2015 was
the highest in seven elections. But the last election in New Zealand, where
every vote counts, saw a 79% turnout elect a new government with three-party
support.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Regional open list MMP<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
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<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">To make regional MPs
accountable, we need regions small enough. The Law Commission Report was
explicitly inspired by the models of Scotland, which has 16-MSP regions, and
Wales, which has 12-MHA regions. My simulation uses regions with an average of
12 MPs (often seven local MPs, five regional MPs elected to top-up seats).<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Rural and urban voters in
every region would have effective votes and fair representation in
both government and opposition. That’s a <a href="https://www.fairvote.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2009Statement_of_Purpose.pdf" target="_blank">basic principle of proportional representation</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">In my 2019 simulation, voters for every
major party elect someone in each of the 30 regions, except no New Democrat in
PEI. On the votes cast in 2019, Greens elect an MP in 19 of the 30. (Of course,
the Green vote would actually increase.)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"><br /></span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">How would regional MPs
serve residents?<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">See <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2013/05/how-do-regional-mps-manage-to-serve.html" target="_blank">how it works in Scotland</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Note: this is only a
simulation<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In any election, as <a href="http://prof./">Prof.</a><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3guVBhKmDc" target="_blank"> Dennis
Pilon says</a>: "Now keep in mind that, when you change the voting
system, you also change the incentives that affect the kinds of decisions that voters
might make. For instance, we know that, when every vote counts, voters won't
have to worry about splitting the vote, or casting a strategic vote. Thus,
we should expect that support for different parties might change." So
I cannot promise that the husband and wife team of Elizabeth May and John
Kidder would have both been elected, or her Deputy Leader Jo-Ann Roberts, or
her Deputy Leader Daniel Green. I’m using 201 local MPs and 137 regional MPs in
30 regions, no additional MPs.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">Or here’s </span><a href="https://wilfday.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-open-list-mixed-member-proportional.html" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">a
different version</a><span face="Arial, sans-serif"> with 223 local MPs and 118 regional MPs in 34 regions. </span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">The West wants in<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
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<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In Alberta</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> (divided into 3 regions), the 14%
of the voters who voted Liberal elected not one MP. A proportional system would
have let them elect five Liberal regional MPs such as Nirmala Naidoo and Kent
Hehr from Calgary, Randy Boissonnault and Amarjeet Sohi from Edmonton,
and Amy Bronson from Lethbridge. Alberta voters would also have elected
three more NDP MPs such as Mark Cherrington from Edmonton, Shandi Bleiken from Lethbridge,
and Gurinder Singh Gill from Calgary.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In Saskatchewan</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">, the 12% of voters who voted Liberal
deserved to elect two of its 14 MPs, yet Ralph Goodale lost his seat. A
proportional system, with eight local MPs and six regional MPs elected to
top-up seats, would have let voters in Saskatchewan elect him and another
Liberal MP like indigenous representative Tammy Cook-Searson, and three NDP MPs
like incumbent MPs Sheri Benson (NDP national Deputy Leader) and indigenous representative
Georgina Jolibois, and Claire Card from Saskatoon.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In Manitoba</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">, Green voters would have elected
an MP like Bill Tiessen from Brandon.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In the BC Interior and
North’s</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> nine
ridings, Liberal voters cast 20% of the votes, but elected no one. They would have
re-elected Stephen Fuhr from Kelowna, and Green voters would have elected
someone like Iain Currie from Kamloops.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In Vancouver Island’s</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> seven ridings, Liberal voters cast 16%
of the votes, but elected no one, while NDP voters cast 32% of the ballots yet
elected five of the seven MPs. A proportional system would have let Liberal
voters on Vancouver Island elect an MP like Nikki Macdonald from Victoria,
and Conservative voters elect an MP like Byron Horner from Parksville.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In
Vancouver—Burnaby—North Shore—Maple Ridge</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">, Green voters would have elected someone like West
Vancouver’s Dana Taylor, and under-represented Conservative voters would have
elected two more MPs like Nicholas Insley and Wai Young.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In Surrey—Richmond—Fraser
Valley—Langley</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> NDP
voters would have elected two MPs like Surrey’s Harjit Singh Gill and
Sarjit Singh Saran, while Green voters would have elected someone like John
Kidder (Elizabeth May’s husband).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">The Atlantic Provinces
would not have been almost a one-party region<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In Nova Scotia</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">, Conservative voters would not have
been limited to one MP. They would have elected two more like Scott Armstrong
from Colchester County and Cape Breton’s Alfie MacLeod. NDP voters
would, instead of being shut out, have elected two MPs like Christine
Saulnier and Emma Norton from Halifax, or Jodi McDavid from Cape Breton. Green
voters would have elected their Deputy Leader Jo-Ann Roberts.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In New Brunswick</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">, NDP voters would have elected an MP
like Daniel Thériault in Bathurst, and Green voters would have elected a
second MP like Laura Reinsborough from.Sackville. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In Newfoundland &
Labrador</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> Conservative
voters would have elected two MPs like Twillingate’s Alex Bracci and
Trinity’s Sharon Vokey. NDP voters would have elected a second MP like Anne
Marie Anonsen from Pouch Cove.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In PEI </span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Conservative voters would have elected
an MP like Logan McLellan from Summerside. Green voters would have elected
an MP like Anna Keenan from Hunter River.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Ontario’s diverse voters
would have been fully represented<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In Southwestern
Ontario’s</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> 13
ridings, the 30% who voted Liberal elected only three MPs. A proportional
system would have let voters in that region elect another Liberal MP like
Sandra Pupatello or Huron-Bruce’s Allan Thompson, as well as another NDP MP
like Tracey Ramsey from suburban Windsor, and the Green Party’s Dr. Collan
Simmons of Stratford. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In West Central
Ontario’s</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> 14
ridings, the region’s MPs are eight Conservatives and six Liberals. A
proportional system, with eight local MPs and six regional MPs, would have let
voters in that region elect two New Democrat regional MP like Cambridge’s
Dr. Scott Hamilton and Barrie’s Pekka Reinio, and two Greens like Guelph’s Steve
Dyck and Kitchener’s Mike Morrice.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In Hamilton-Niagara’s</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> 12 ridings, Green voters would have
elected an MP like Norfolk nurse Brooke Martin, and NDP voters would have elected
a third MP like Malcolm Allen of the Town of Pelham or Hamilton’s Nick
Milanovic.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In Peel—Halton
Region’s</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> 14
ridings, instead of all Liberal MPs, Conservative voters would have elected
four MPs like Milton’s Lisa Raitt, Stella Ambler, Terence Young and Sean Weir. NDP
voters would have elected 2 MPs like Saranjit Singh and Jordan Boswell from Brampton.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In Toronto and
East York—Etobicoke-York’s</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> 13
ridings, rather than all Liberals, NDP voters would have elected two MPs like
Andrew Cash and Min Sook Lee or Paul Taylor, Conservative voters would have
elected two MPs like Ted Opitz and Barry O'Brien, and Green voters would have
elected an MP like Tim Grant. <b><i>In North York—Scarborough’s 12
ridings</i></b>, rather than all Liberals, NDP voters would have elected an MP
like Keith McCrady, while Conservative voters would have elected four MPs like Sarah
Fischer, Chani Aryeh-Bain, Daniel Lee and Sean Hu. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In York—Durham’s</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> 15 ridings, NDP voters would have
elected two MPs like Oshawa’s Shailene Panylo and Bowmanville’s Sarah
Whalen-Wright, while Green voters would have elected an MP like East
Gwillimbury’s Jonathan Arnold.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In Central East
Ontario’s</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> nine
ridings, NDP voters would have elected someone like Kingston’s Barrington
Walker, while Green voters would have elected an MP like Stephen Kotze from <span style="background: white; color: #545454;">Lanark Highlands.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif"><br />
<b><i>In the Ottawa Valley’s</i></b> 10 ridings, NDP voters would have
elected 2 MPs like Ottawa’s Emilie Taman and Stéphanie Mercier, while
Conservative voters would have elected a third MP like Ottawa’s Pierre
Lemieux.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In Northern Ontario</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">, Green voters would have elected an MP
like Thunder Bay’s Bruce Hyer, while Conservative voters would have elected a
second MP like Sault Ste. Marie’s Sonny Spina.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Quebec’s pluralism
would be respected <o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In
Chaudière-Appalaches—Bas-Saint-Laurent—Gaspésie’s</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> 8 ridings, Liberal voters would have
re-elected Matane’s Rémi Massé rather than see him defeated. NDP voters would
have re-elected Guy Caron from Rimouski.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In Quebec
City—Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean—Côte-Nord’s</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> 11 ridings, NDP voters would have re-elected Karine
Trudel from Jonquière. Liberal voters would have re-elected Richard
Hébert from Lac-Saint-Jean.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In Estrie—Mauricie—Centre-du-Québec’s</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> 10 ridings, Conservative voters would
have elected a second MP like Yves Lévesque in Trois-Rivières. NDP voters
would have re-elected Ruth Ellen Brosseau or Sherbrooke’s Pierre-Luc Dusseault.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In Laurentides—Lanaudière—Outaouais—Abitibi-Témiscamingue—Nord’s</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> 15 ridings, Liberal voters would have
re-elected Linda Lapointe from Rivière-des-Mille-Îles. NDP voters would have
elected an MP like Nicolas Thibodeau in Gatineau. Conservative voters would
have elected an MP like Pontiac’s Dave Blackburn. Green voters would have
elected an MP like Josée Poirier Defoy from Luskville.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In Montérégie’s</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> 12 ridings, NDP voters would have re-elected
Brigitte Sansoucy from Saint-Hyacinthe. Conservative voters would have elected
an MP like Bernard Barré, also from Saint-Hyacinthe. Green voters would have
elected floor-crosser Pierre Nantel in Longueuil.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In Montreal East—Laval’s</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> 12 ridings, Conservative voters would
have elected an MP like Tom Pentefountas. NDP voters would have elected a
second MP like Nimâ Machouf. Green voters would have elected an MP like Juan
Vazquez, spokesperson on Biodiversity who stood against Justin Trudeau. Bloc
voters, over-represented outside Montreal but under-represented inside, would
have elected two more like Simon Marchand and Lizabel Nitoi.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In Montreal-West’s</span></i></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> 10 ridings, rather than all Liberals, NDP
voters would have elected an MP like Andrea Clarke, Conservative voters would
have elected an MP like David Tordjman, Green voters would have elected Deputy
Leader Daniel Green, and Bloc voters would have elected an MP like Isabel Dion. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Big-city rule? Or “Small
and Rural”?<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Some people fear
proportional representation would mean big-city rule. Not so: In this year’s tax
return, the rebate for carbon taxes includes a 10% supplement for residents of
“small and rural communities:” those who live outside a Census Metropolitan
Area, and presumably have to use more gasoline. Using that as a definition, 28
of the above examples of regional MPs come from small and rural communities.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Democratic nominations<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Today, parties can nominate
as they choose. Canada has no law to stop parties from appointing local
candidates. <a href="https://www.fairvote.ca/democratic-nominations/" target="_blank">Fair Vote Canada says</a> they should have to nominate
candidates democratically in order to qualify for campaign expense subsidy.<br />
<br />
I expect parties would nominate local candidates first. As soon as they are
finished, they hold the regional nomination process. I expect it’s an
every-member online vote, after candidates’ speeches, carried online. In the
run-up to the regional nomination, likely a party would hold all-candidates
meetings in each riding. I expect almost all the local candidates would also
stand for the positions of regional candidate, unless one of them was a token
local candidate who had no interest in trying to compete across the
region. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">On election day, voters can
move a regional candidate up the regional list if he or she gets enough
personal votes. Voters can elect that candidate ahead of another candidate whom
the party’s regional nomination process had ranked higher. But still, it’s an
advantage to be ranked first. So, the regional nomination process has to rank
them, even if the eight regional candidates are acclaimed.<br />
<br />
I expect some regional-only candidates would also be nominated, to add
diversity to the ballot. Since voters can vote for the regional candidate they
prefer, one of the regional-only candidates could be elected. This could be quite
likely if the strongest local candidate wins a local seat, dropping off the
regional count, opening the door for someone new.<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Overhangs<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">With a regional MMP model,
we risk local sweeps being so extreme that they create “overhangs.” Those are
results too disproportional for the compensatory (“top-up”) MPs to correct,
when they are only 40% of the total. That’s the trade-off in the system design,
to keep local ridings from being almost double their present size.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">An overhang happens in my
simulation with the Liberal sweep of Toronto, which results in a bonus of one
MP for the Liberals at the cost of the NDP, and the Liberal sweep of Peel—Halton,
a bonus of one from the Greens. However, the NDP near-sweep of Vancouver Island
gives them a bonus of one MP from the Conservatives. Also, the Bloc sweep of Laurentides—Lanaudière
gives them a bonus of one MP at the cost of the Conservatives. With a real MMP
election where voters have more choice and do not need to cast negative votes,
such sweeps will not normally happen. Random regional rounding differences also
make slight changes. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Perfect province-wide
proportionality would have resulted in Liberals 116, Conservatives 118, NDP 56,
Bloc 26, Greens 21. My simulation happens to show Liberals 120, Conservatives 115,
NDP 54, Bloc 26, Green 22, a bonus of four Liberals and one Green, three from
the Conservatives, two from the NDP.</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif"><b><u>Provincial recap:<o:p></o:p></u></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Ontario:<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">FPTP:
Liberals 79, Conservatives 36, NDP 6 <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">PR:
Liberals 54, Conservatives 39, NDP 20, Greens 8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><i>Quebec:
<o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">FPTP
Liberals 35, BQ 32, Conservatives 10, NDP 1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">PR:
Liberals 28, BQ 26, Conservatives 12, NDP 8, Greens 4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><i>BC:<o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">FPTP:
Liberals 11, Conservatives 17, NDP 11, Greens 2, Jody W-R 1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">PR:
Liberals 10, Conservatives 15, NDP 10, Green 5, Jody W-R 1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><i>Alberta:<o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">FPTP:
Liberals 0, Conservatives 33, NDP 1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">PR:
Liberals 5, Conservatives 25, NDP 4, Green 0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><i>Saskatchewan:<o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">FPTP:
Liberals 0, Conservatives 14, NDP 0 <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">PR:
Liberals 2, Conservatives 9, NDP 3, Green 0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><i>Manitoba:<o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">FPTP:
Liberals 4, Conservatives 7, NDP 3 <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">PR:
Liberals 4, Conservatives 6, NDP 3, Green 1<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Nova
Scotia:<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">FPTP:
Liberals 10, Conservatives 1, NDP 0 <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">PR:
Liberals 5, Conservatives 3, NDP 2, Green 1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">New Brunswick:<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">FPTP: Liberals 6,
Conservatives 3, Green 1, NDP 0 <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">PR: Liberals 4, Conservatives
3, Green 2, NDP 1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Newfoundland &
Labrador:<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">FPTP: Liberals 6,
Conservatives 0, NDP 1 <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">PR: Liberals 3, Conservatives
2, NDP 2<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Prince Edward Island: <o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">FPTP: Liberals 4,
Conservatives 0, Green 0, NDP 0 <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">PR: Liberals 2, Conservatives
1, Green 1.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Technical Notes:<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">The calculation for any PR
system has to choose a rounding method, to round fractions up and down. I have
used the “largest remainder” calculation, which Germany used until recently,
because it is the simplest and most transparent. In a 10-MPP region, if Party A
deserves 3.2 MPPs, Party B deserves 3.1, Party C deserves 2.3, and Party D
deserves 1.4, which party gets the tenth seat? Party D has a remainder of 0.4,
the largest remainder. In a region where one party wins a bonus (“overhang”), I
allocate the remaining seats among the remaining parties by the same
calculation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">The purpose of the
compensatory regional seats is to correct disproportional local results, not to
provide a parallel system of getting elected. The Law Commission recommended
that the right to nominate candidates for regional top-up seats should be
limited to those parties which have candidates standing for election in at
least one-third of the ridings within the top-up region. Jenkins recommended
50%. This prevents a possible distortion of the system by parties pretending to
split into twin decoy parties for the regional seats, the trick which
Berlusconi invented to sabotage Italy’s voting system.</span></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif">
For the three Territories, I would actually prefer to give them each a second
MP, but for simplicity, in this simulation I left them unchanged.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-7859067313123248602019-09-02T15:14:00.000-04:002019-09-03T02:58:21.780-04:00What would a quick, simple “no-list” version of the Mixed Member Proportional system look like?<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">This
year’s Canadian election is likely to produce a minority government. A new book
says Trudeau was convinced by his caucus in 2015 to “leave the door open
at least a crack for proportional representation” because he thought that he
might be “willing to be convinced that (he was) wrong.” The Liberals will
realize they made a mistake by letting Trudeau’s PMO break their promise to fix
our broken voting system.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Let’s
say they set up a Citizens Assembly on Electoral Reform to design a fair voting
system that will make every vote count effectively in every region across
Canada, leaving no voice unheard.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Suppose
Citizens Assembly members say “<i>a normal Mixed Member Proportional system,
like the one recommended by the Electoral Reform Committee (ERRE), will need a
new round of hearings by the Electoral Boundaries Commissions. Voters will need
to understand how their two votes work (one for a local MP, one for a regional
MP for top-up seats that counts as a vote for their party). Parties will have
to adopt new systems to nominate regional candidates democratically. Hard to
get all this done before the next election. Can we design a simple MMP model that
uses the present boundaries, and the present ballot, one vote for your local
MP?</i>”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Sure.
No-list MMP.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">It’s
not my favourite model. But it makes every vote matter. It ends “strategic
voting.” It’s perfectly proportional within reasonable limits, like a 5%
threshold for parties to win seats in a province. It preserves the traditional
link between voter and MP. And it’s practical, since the German province
of Baden-W</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">ü</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">rttemberg has used it for more than 60 years to elect their
provincial parliament in Stuttgart.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
<b><u>Trade-offs:<o:p></o:p></u></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">MMP
model design is about trade-offs: do you want larger ridings and close to
perfect proportionality, or smaller ridings with more risk of a party getting a
“winner’s bonus” in its stronghold. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">My
ideal MMP model would look like <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-open-list-mixed-member-proportional.html">the
regional open-list model for which the ERRE found consensus</a>. (No, not the
MPs -- they didn’t write the whole 245 pages, that was the staff seconded from
the Library of Parliament who worked from the testimony of the 196 expert
witnesses). That model would have 60% or 65% of MPs elected from local ridings.
It needs new boundaries, though.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">“No-list”
MMP model<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
“no-list” Stuttgart model has voters elect half of the MPs from local ridings.
The other half, for top-up seats for parties under-represented by the local
results, are simply the best runner-up candidates in a local region -- the defeated
candidates of that party who got the highest % of the vote in that region. Ridings
are twice the present size, so just pair up our present ones. In return, voters
also elect regional MPs as ranked by voters in that region.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">For
example, take the region of Hamilton—Niagara—Waterloo—Halton, with 22 MPs. Now
it will have 11 local MPs. Take <i>Hamilton Mountain-West—Ancaster—Dundas
(HMWAD)</i>. On the votes cast in 2015, <i>HMWAD</i> would have elected current
Liberal MP Filomena Tassi. But the runner-up, current NDP MP Scott Duvall, would
have been one of the three additional NDP MPs elected across the region, topping
up the results so every vote counts equally.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Conservative
voters in <i>HMWAD</i> would have helped elect Conservative MP Lisa Raitt, the
runner-up next door in <i>Milton—Burlington</i>. Green voters in <i>HMWAD</i> would
have helped elect Gord Miller, the Green candidate in <i>Guelph—Wellington—Halton
Hills</i>, the top Green in the region.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Voters
in this region voted 41% Liberal, 37% Conservative, 17% NDP and 3% Green. So
Liberal voters elect 9 MPs, Conservative voters 8, NDP voters 4, and Green
voters 1. (For this simulation I used only a 2% threshold, so as not to exclude
the Greens. In a real election, once every vote counts the Greens would, even in
2015, surely have gotten over 5% almost everywhere.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Results
across Canada<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">On
the votes cast in 2015, with this model (giving the Territories 2 MPs each) voters
would have elected 341 MPs: 139 Liberals, 108 Conservatives, 70 NDP, 14 Bloc, and
10 Greens. That’s almost perfectly proportional. (When you divide Ontario into
seven regions, rounding anomalies give the NDP an extra seat at the cost of the
Conservatives. Making Alberta two regions gives the Liberals a seat at the cost
of the Conservatives. And my Quebec four regions give the Liberals a seat at
the cost of the Bloc. The Greens get their fair number.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Voters
get what they voted for. Most democratic countries don’t have one-party governments,
nor one-man governments run by the PMO. <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2016/02/many-coalition-governments-in-canada.html">Canada
has seen ten coalition governments</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Now
keep in mind that this is only a simulation. As <a href="http://prof./">Prof.</a><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3guVBhKmDc" target="_blank"> Dennis
Pilon says</a>: "when you change the voting system, you also change
the incentives that affect the kinds of decisions that voters might make. For
instance, we know that, when every vote counts, voters won't have to worry
about splitting the vote, or casting a strategic vote. Thus, we should
expect that support for different parties might change."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Pros
and Cons of “no-list” MMP<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">With
my favourite regional open-list model, voters like me in Northumberland County
would have an accountable local Liberal MP, and I would have voted for the
regional NDP candidate I preferred in a small 9-MP region, so I would have an
accountable regional NDP MP I helped elect. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">With
the no-list model, I am not limited to a 9-MP region, since a 20-MP region will
not mean a large “bed-sheet ballot.” So I will now be able to point to more
than one NDP MPs I helped elect: Dave Nickle in <i>Peterborough—Northumberland</i>
and Mary Fowler in <i>Oshawa—Whitby.</i> My Green neighbour can point to Glen
Hodgson in <i>Simcoe North—Parry Sound—Muskoka.</i> Local Liberals and Conservative
will each have an MP they helped elect in <i>Peterborough—Northumberland.</i><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">This
“no-list MMP” is a quick and simple model. The majority of ridings across
Canada will manage fine even doubled in size. It gives my Green neighbour an MP.
No one has to worry about how parties nominate their regional list: no list. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">But
no-list MMP will miss some advantages. My county will no longer have an MP
accountable mainly to us. And unlike normal MMP, I will not vote for a
specific regional candidate and hold them accountable. <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2016/03/mmp-for-canada.html">Normal MMP gives
voters the best of both worlds</a>. Voters are guaranteed two things which
equal better local representation:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">1.
A local MP who will champion their
area.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">2.
An MP whose views best reflect their values, someone they helped elect in their
local riding or local region.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
normal two-vote MMP model lets you vote for the local candidate you prefer
without hurting your party, since your second vote determines the party outcome.
About 30% of New Zealand voters split their ballots this way. The “no-list”
model loses this advantage.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
normal two-vote MMP model also lets you vote for the regional candidate you prefer,
so regional MPs are very attached to voters in all parts of the region. No-list
MMP, however, means only voters in their local riding rank them. A good candidate
who would have gotten strong support across the region will lose if she is
running in a weak riding for her party. I can’t vote for a good MP from my
region to be re-elected if I don’t live in her local riding.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Normal
MMP with regional lists lets parties nominate “zippered” lists, alternating
women and men. No-list MMP loses that advantage. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
However, no-list MMP has nice regions. The four large provinces have regions in
my simulation averaging 18 MPs each, big enough to make almost every vote
count. Still, no one outside Toronto will complain that Toronto voters helped
elect their MP. Northern Ontario voters will see Northern votes elect Northern
MPs. Francophone voters in the bilingual Ottawa—Cornwall region will see their
votes stay in the region. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
four medium-small provinces average 12 MPs each, not too dissimilar levels of
proportionality.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
regional MPs are the “best runners-up;” the defeated candidates of the under-represented
party who got the highest % of the vote in that region. The majority of the
twinned local ridings will see two of their local candidates elected as either
local MPs or regional MPs. This does not always happen, since the defeated
candidates are ranked by local voters across the region. So in my simulation I
find 34 local ridings where none of the defeated candidates are elected as
regional MPs, while in another 32 ridings two defeated candidates win regional
seats, and one lucky riding sees three defeated candidates elected as regional
MPs. (Suburban <i>Pierre-Boucher—Verchères—Beloeil—Chambly</i> elects a local
Liberal MP, while candidates from the NDP, Bloc and Green Parties are elected
as regional MPs.) The Stuttgart model in Germany works just like this too. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">How
many indigenous MPs would have been elected? That would depend on whether
parties who nominated an indigenous candidate in one of the present ridings in
2015 would have nominated that candidate in the larger twinned riding. Since
indigenous people are under-represented in Parliament, I expect most would. I
project 17 indigenous MPs, compared to the ten actually elected. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Even
50% regional MPs is not always quite enough. Both Southern Alberta and Northern
Alberta would see every paired riding elect, on the 2015 votes, a local
Conservative MP, and with 56% or 63% of the votes, they would also deserve a
regional MP. They will need a regional party “standby” list after all, just in
case they run out of local candidates. Similarly, Nova Scotia Liberal voters
would elect all the local MPs and one more, as would Liberal voters in
Newfoundland and Labrador. And my simulation from 2015 shows every local
Liberal candidate being elected to either a local or regional seat in Toronto, and
in York—Peel, in New Brunswick, and in Northern Ontario. Same for every local
Conservative candidate in Saskatchewan. And the Quebec region of Montérégie—Estrie—Centre-du-Québec
shows, despite having 20 MPs, such a Liberal sweep that they get an “overhang”
(bonus) of one MP.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Large
urban areas will manage ridings twice the present size. A few rural ridings
will look difficult, notably the Pacific Coast riding of Skeena—Bulkley
Valley—North Island—Powell River and the Northern Ontario riding of Nipissing—Timiskaming—Timmins—James
Bay. <br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Here’s
one more disadvantage: with only one local Liberal candidate for each pair of
present ridings, 68 current Liberal MPs would find themselves squeezed out,
with nothing but the very faint hope of being elected from a provincial “standby”
list. So would 34 current Conservative MPs, 9 NDP, and 1 Bloc. As I said, this
is a model a Citizens Assembly might design, not one current MPs would like. If
MPs want a normal MMP model with smaller ridings and new boundaries hearings,
they had better move fast in setting up that Citizens Assembly.</span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Since
three provinces have uneven numbers of MPs, my simulation assumes Kenora,
Labrador, and South Shore—St. Margaret's remain exceptional single-MP ridings. My
seven Ontario regions are: Toronto (26 MPs including Thornhill); York—Peel
(20), Central East (Kingston—Durham Region—Simcoe, 20), South Central (Hamilton—Niagara—Halton—Waterloo,
22), Southwestern (London—Windsor—Owen Sound, 14), Ottawa—Cornwall (10),
Northern (9). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
</div>
Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-31116207318515063302019-04-25T23:40:00.000-04:002019-04-27T12:29:11.487-04:00France: after three tries at using proportional representation, will it now see a "dose of proportionality"?<br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">French President Emmanuel Macron
proposes a semi-proportional system for France: a 20% “proportional share"
for Parliamentary elections. (Also, the number of parliamentarians will be
reduced by 25% to 30%.) He made this announcement April 25, after a “great
national debate” that began January 14, 2019. He had stated “<em><span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">The system of representation
is the bedrock of our Republic, but it must be improved because many do not
feel represented after the votes. What is the right level of proportional
representation in parliamentary elections for a fairer say to be given to all
political perspectives?”</span></em><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In his presidential campaign he had promised "a dose of proportionality." This share of 20% had been
debated for the past year: would it be the 15% proposed last summer, 20%, or
25%? <br /><br />Based on last summer’s discussions, it seems this “dose of proportionality”
(PR-lite) is non-compensatory, based on national vote shares, with no
threshold.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">The
history of proportional representation in France<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">France had always, </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">before the First World War,</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"> used
either a block vote system, with several deputies for each “department,” or the
two-round system in single-member districts. During
1907-1914 support for PR built up, and a bill was passed in 1912 but vetoed by
the Senate. PR became an election issue in the 1914 election, and a majority of
the newly elected deputies had promised PR. The War started three months later.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Based on the electoral
mandate, the Senate yielded in June 1919. France’s first PR election was in
1919, and again in 1924.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">The 1919 election was moderately
proportional in the 89 “Departments” for the 613 seats, an average of 7 seats
per district, with a minimum of 3. It was an open-list system, but you have as
many votes as deputies to be elected. Any candidate winning over 50% of the
voters was elected, and then PR by list was used. Parties ran altogether 324
lists, 3 or 4 per department: one socialist, and 2 or 3 or 4 others of various
groups of the centre and right; the right won a majority.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">The 1924 election for 581
seats was won by the centre-left and left. It had the same system except that
departments with more than 6 deputies were split, and the Socialists and Communists had separate lists. However, in July 1926 a
financial crisis brought the right and centre-right to power, and they
changed the voting system in 1927. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">For the 1928 election France
reverted to their previous two-round system in single-member districts.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">The Fourth Republic used PR for
the 1945 Consultative Assembly and from 1946 to 1951 for the National Assembly.
In 1945 it had closed lists. In 1946 the lists were closed unless at least half
the votes for the list were personal votes, in which case the list order was
applied as well as the personal votes. Districts ranged from three to nine
seats in 1945, three to eleven MPs in 1946. The 1946 districts in France had an
average of 5.3 MPs, 553 seats in 105 districts. The calculation was highest
average. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">From 1951 to 1958 this
continued, except for a mechanism to favour parties other than the two biggest
(Gaullists and Communists). This allowed the coalition called “Third Force,” centrists
and centre-left originally led by the Socialist Party, the government since 1947, to
remain in power until 1958. The lists had the opportunity to ally with each
other in each district through an "apparentement". If the sum of the
votes obtained by the “apparented” lists corresponds to at least half of the
votes cast, these lists take all the seats allocated in the district. Also, in
two districts the rule of the largest remainder was used, a gerrymander against
the Communists in those two districts. Again, the lists were closed unless
personal votes are at least half the votes for the list, but now in that case
the list order was not applied, ranking was by only the personal votes. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In 1951, even with the “apparentement,”
the three “Third Force” parties won only 47% of the seats, squeezed between the
Gaullists 19% and the Communists 16%, leaving them increasingly dependent on
the other 15% won by the centre-right alliance. As these same leaders shuffled
and reshuffled their alliances for five years, this left French politics as a
shifting series of coalitions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In the 1956 election the Communists
became the largest party with 25% of the seats. Some apparentements continued
between some centre-left, centre and centre-right lists, but accomplished little
except to limit the number of seats won by the new right-wing Poujadists. With
the six parties of the centre-left and centre-right badly divided over Algerian
policy, governments foundered until the 1958 military coup in Algeria led to
the return of Charles de Gaulle. By then, proportional representation had few
defenders and was abolished. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">De Gaulle brought back the winner-take-all system in two rounds. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"> </span></div>
</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">For the 1985 election the
Socialist President Fran<em><span style="background: white; color: #6a6a6a; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-style: normal;">ç</span></em>ois
Mitterand brought back PR, the system of proportional representation by
district. There was a 5% threshold, and closed lists. It had 570 MPs from
France, in 100 districts, an average of 5.7 MPs per district. The calculation was
again by highest average. In 1986 the conservatives reversed it.<br /><br /><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Note: with only about 6 MPs
per district, this was a moderate form of PR, as indeed France has always used.
Opponents were not concerned about small extremist parties. They wanted to get
centrists and rightists into a big centre-right tent.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">However, France understands PR
very well. Municipal governments and regional assemblies used proportional or
semi-proportional systems from 1947 to 1959, and again since 1982. European
Parliament elections, starting in 1989, are by PR.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-67274849331871119982019-03-25T13:54:00.002-04:002019-03-29T22:35:21.853-04:00What would the electoral reform broken promise have meant this year?<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">What would the results of this year’s
election be, with proportional representation? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">The
broken promise<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">The 2015 Liberal platform said "We
are committed to ensuring that 2015 will be the last federal election conducted
under the first-past-the-post voting system. We will convene an all-party
Parliamentary committee to review a wide variety of reforms, such as ranked
ballots, proportional representation, mandatory voting, and online
voting." <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">A lot of them were serious. Leading
Liberal MP Dominic Leblanc (from New Brunswick where an independent Commission
had recommended the Mixed Member Proportional system) told Fair Vote Canada “I
support reforms to add elements of proportional representation that also ensure
that Members of Parliament remain directly accountable to their constituents
first and foremost.” My own MP Kim Rudd signed a pledge to support PR. Dozens more
future Liberal MPs told FVC they supported PR. Some (including Jody
Wilson-Raybould) even said so on their campaign websites. In December 2014 half
the Liberal MPs had voted in favour of proportional representation in the House
of Commons, while the other half (including Justin) were opposed. <br />
<br />
Even the day before the 2015 election they were expecting a minority
government, and we could have had PR. But then the Liberals won an accidental
majority, with the very same 39.5% of the vote that gave Harper an accidental
majority in 2011. That’s the reason so many voters wanted PR in 2015. But over
the next 15 months Justin Trudeau decided he could get away with imposing his
own veto on PR. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-electoral-reform-1.3976345" target="_blank">"It was my choice to make,"</a> he said.<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">When he <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/for-the-record-justin-trudeau-on-breaking-his-electoral-reform-promise/" target="_blank">announced the end of electoral reform in February 2017</a> he said: his favourite option was “to rank your ballot.
I have heard very clearly that people think it would favour Liberals too much.
And therefore I’m not going near it, because I am not going to do something
that everyone is convinced is going to favour one party over another." He
could also have mentioned that only four percent of expert witnesses at the
Electoral Reform Committee had supported it. The Liberal MPs on the committee
didn't even mention it in their minority report, and when the media asked the
Liberal committee chair why not, he answered "nobody wants ranked
ballots."<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Stéphane Dion’s 2013 line was
“Preferential voting . . . does nothing to correct the distortion between votes
and seats and the under-representation of national parties compared to regional
ones.” Only proportional representation will make every vote count.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Justin's reply to PR is "that would
mean extremist voices, and activist voices that don’t get to sit within a party
that figures out the best path for the whole future of the country, like the
existing three big parties do." I don't know whether the Green Party is
supposed to be "extremist" or just "activist" (when did
that become a bad word)?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">We
stopped the bait-and-switch<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><br />
Of citizens who showed up, <a href="https://www.fairvote.ca/2017/03/06/myth-7-was-there-no-consensus/" target="_blank">87% called for proportional representation</a>. Did we
fail? No, we succeeded. We stopped the PMO’s bait-and-switch operation. We not
only stopped it, we exposed it.<br />
<br />
This leaves the path clear for parties and candidates who want to campaign in
2019 to make every vote count through proportional representation. I not only
want my vote to count, I want my neighbour’s vote to count. As the posters said
in New Zealand, in the winning campaign to keep MMP, “Your vote is worth
exactly the same as mine and that's a powerful thing.”<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">What
would the results of this year’s election be, with proportional representation?
<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Let’s look the result with the votes
cast in 2015, with the Mixed Member Proportional system: No PMO running a
one-party government elected by only 39.5% of the votes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">On the votes as cast, the final
count in my regional simulation is Liberals 141, Conservatives 106, NDP 69,
Bloc 16, Green 6. That’s what Canadians voted for. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Stéphane
Dion was right<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">St</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">é</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">phane Dion <a href="http://ideefederale.ca/documents/Dion_ang.pdf" target="_blank">wrote in 2012</a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">“I do not see why we should maintain a
voting system that makes our major parties appear less national and our regions
more politically opposed than they really are. I no longer want a voting system
that gives the impression that certain parties have given up on Quebec, or on
the West. On the contrary, the whole spectrum of parties, from Greens to
Conservatives, must embrace all the regions of Canada. In each region, they
must covet and be able to obtain seats proportionate to their actual support.
This is the main reason why I recommend replacing our voting system.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">One thing is certain: the 2015 results
under winner-take-all left Liberal voters in Alberta and Saskatchewan
under-represented in the Liberal caucus, short seven MPs.</span></div>
<br />
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">The
open-list MMP system: Every MP represents actual voters and real
communities<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">We’re not talking about a model with
candidates appointed by central parties. We’re talking about the <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2016/03/mmp-for-canada.html" target="_blank">mixed member system</a> designed by the Law Commission of Canada, where every MP
represents actual voters and real communities. The majority of MPs will be
elected by local ridings as we do today, preserving the traditional link
between voter and MP. The other 39% are elected as regional MPs, topping-up the
numbers of MPs from your local region so the total is proportional to the votes
for each party.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">You have two votes. One is for your
local MP. The second helps elect regional MPs, topping-up the numbers of
MPs from your local region so the total is proportional to the votes for each
party. You cast a personal vote for a candidate within the regional
list. This is commonly called “open list.” Voters elect all the MPs. No
one is guaranteed a seat. The region is small enough that the regional MPs
are accountable. Every vote counts: it’s proportional. You vote for the
regional candidate you prefer: it’s personal. There are no closed lists. Result:
after the election, everyone has a local MP, plus a few regional MPs, likely
including someone they helped elect. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Competing
MPs:<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">You have a local MP who will
champion your community, and about five competing regional MPs, normally
including one whose views best reflect your values.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">So you can vote for the local candidate
you like best regardless of party, without hurting your party, since it's the party
(regional) ballot that determines the party make-up of the legislature. About
32% of voters split their ballots this way in New Zealand with a similar
system.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">This makes it easier for local MPs to
get the support of people of all political stripes. They can earn support for
their constituency-representation credentials, not just for their party. This
boosts the kind of support MPs bring with them into the House of Commons, thus
strengthening their independence.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Never
again<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">The first effect of using proportional
representation would have been to end strategic voting.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">The polling swings of the six months
before the election clearly showed that Canadian voters want more than two
choices, if they can vote for what they want. This left a vast number of
voters, frustrated at having to vote against something on October 19, saying
“never again -- next time I want to vote for my first choice.” <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Polls taken the day before the election
correctly predicted the outcome, but until that Sunday, polls had shown a
Liberal minority government. Some newly elected Liberal MPs had been
encouraging NDP supporters to help elect a minority Liberal government. They
were apologetic: “Sorry, I was expecting a minority government.” Many people
echoed a Globe and Mail columnist who wrote “What have we done?” A voter’s
anguished letter to Justin Trudeau went viral: “I did not vote for you. I voted
against the alternative . . . Change the
electoral system.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Did
your vote count?<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">The 68% turnout in 2015 was the highest
in seven elections. But last year New Zealand, where every vote counts, saw a
79% turnout elect a new government with three-party support.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Regional
open list MMP<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">To make regional MPs accountable, we
need regions small enough. The Law Commission Report was explicitly
inspired by the models of Scotland, which has 16-MSP regions, and Wales, which
has 12-MHA regions. My simulation uses regions with an average of 12 MPs (often
seven local MPPs, five regional MPPs elected to top-up seats).<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Rural and urban voters in every region
would have effective votes and fair representation in both government
and opposition. That’s a <a href="https://www.fairvote.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2009Statement_of_Purpose.pdf" target="_blank">basic principle of proportional representation</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">How
would regional MPs serve residents?<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">See <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2013/05/how-do-regional-mps-manage-to-serve.html" target="_blank">how it works in Scotland</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Big-city
rule?<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Some people fear proportional
representation would mean big-city rule. Not so: the list below includes 24
regional MPs from outside metropolitan areas.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Note:
this is only a simulation<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In any election, as <a href="http://prof./">Prof.</a><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3guVBhKmDc" target="_blank"> Dennis
Pilon says</a>: "Now keep in mind that, when you change the voting
system, you also change the incentives that affect the kinds of decisions that
voters might make. For instance, we know that, when every vote counts, voters
won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or casting a strategic vote. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Thus, we should expect that support for
different parties might change." </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">I’m using 208 local MPs and 130 regional
MPs in 30 regions, no additional MPs.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Ontario’s
diverse voters would have been fully represented<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
West Central Ontario</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">’s
14 ridings, Liberal voters cast 42% of the ballots, while Conservative voters
cast only 41%. Yet the region’s 14 MPs are nine Conservatives and only five
Liberals, all but one men. A proportional system, with eight local MPs and six
regional MPs, would have let voters in that region elect another Liberal MP
like <i>Orillia’s</i> Liz Riley, <i>Muskoka’s</i> Trisha Cowie, or <i>Owen Sound’s</i> Kimberley Love, one New
Democrat regional MP like <i>Kitchener’s</i>
Susan Cadell, one Green like <i>Guelph’s</i>
Gord Miller, and six local Conservatives. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
Southwestern Ontario</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">’s
13 ridings, the 34% who voted Liberal elected only two MPs although NDP voters
elected four MPs with 25% of the vote. A proportional system would have let
voters in that region elect two more Liberal MPs like <i>Chatham’s</i> Katie Omstead and Lori Baldwin-Sands from <i>St. Thomas</i>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
Hamilton-Niagara</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">’s 12
ridings, NDP voters would have re-elected Malcolm Allen of the <i>Town of Pelham</i>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
York—Durham</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">’s 15
ridings, NDP voters would have elected someone like <i>Oshawa’s</i> Mary Fowler, while Conservative voters would have elected
two more MPs like Costas Menegakis in <i>Richmond
Hill</i> and Julian Fantino in <i>Vaughan</i>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
Central East Ontario’s</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">
nine ridings, NDP voters would have elected someone like <i>Peterborough’s</i> Dave Nickle.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
Northern Ontario</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">, NDP
voters would have re-elected Claude Gravelle from the francophone town of <i>Chelmsford</i>, while Conservative voters
would have re-elected <i>Sault Ste. Marie’s</i>
Bryan Hayes and <i>North Bay’s</i> Jay Aspin.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
Peel—Halton Region’s</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"> 14
ridings, NDP voters would have elected 2 MPs like Harbaljit Singh Kahlon from <i>Brampton</i> and Dianne Douglas from <i>Mississauga</i>, while Conservative voters
would have elected four more MPs from <i>Oakville
or Mississauga</i> like Stella Ambler, Effie Triantafilopoulos, Terence Young
and Brad Butt. <b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In <b>North
York—Etobicoke’s</b> 12 ridings, NDP voters would have re-elected Peggy Nash
and Mike Sullivan, while Conservative voters would have elected three MPs like
Joe Oliver, Mark Adler and Maureen Harquail. <b>In Central Toronto—Scarborough’s</b> 13 ridings, NDP voters would have
re-elected three MPs like Craig Scott, Andrew Cash and Mathew Kellway, while
Conservative voters would have elected three MPs like Bin Chang, Roxanne James
and Marnie MacDougall<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
the Ottawa Valley’s</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"> 10
ridings, NDP voters would have elected 2 MPs like <i>Ottawa’s</i> Paul Dewar and Emilie Taman, while Conservative voters
would have elected another MP like <i>Ottawa’s</i>
Royal Galipeau.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">The
West wants in<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
Alberta</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"> (divided into 3
regions), the 25% of the voters who voted Liberal elected only four, all men. A
proportional system would have let them elect five more Liberal MPs such as
Kyle Harrietha from <i>Fort McMurray</i>,
Mike Pyne from <i>Lethbridge</i>, Kerry
Cundal and Nirmala Naidoo from <i>Calgary</i>,
and Karen Leibovici from <i>Edmonton</i>.
Alberta voters would also have elected three more NDP MPs such as Cheryl
Meheden from <i>Lethbridge</i>, Janis Irwin
from <i>Edmonton</i> and Laura Weston from <i>Calgary</i>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
Saskatchewan</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">, the 24%
of voters who voted Liberal deserved to elect three of its 14 MPs, yet elected
only Ralph Goodale. A proportional system would have let voters in Saskatchewan
elect two more Liberal MPs like aboriginal leader Lawrence Joseph from <i>Prince Albert</i> and Tracy Muggli from <i>Saskatoon</i>, and another NDP MP like
Claire Card from <i>Saskatoon</i>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
Manitoba,</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"> Green voters
would have elected an MP like David Neufeld from <i>Brandon</i>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
the BC Interior and North</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">’s
nine ridings, Liberal voters cast 30% of the votes, but elected only Stephen
Fuhr, while the Conservatives elected five MPs. A proportional system would
have let voters in that region elect two more Liberal MPs like Tracy Calogheros
from <i>Prince George</i> and Karley Scott
from <i>West Kelowna</i>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
Vancouver Island</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">’s seven
ridings, Liberal voters cast 21% of the votes, but elected no one, while NDP
voters cast 33% of the ballots yet elected six of the seven MPs. A proportional
system would have let Liberal voters on Vancouver Island elect at least one MP
such as David Merner from <i>Victoria</i>,
Green voters elect a second MP like <i>Victoria’s</i>
Jo-Ann Roberts, and Conservative voters elect an MP like <i>Courtenay’s</i> John Duncan.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
Vancouver—Burnaby—North Shore—Maple Ridge</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"> Green voters would have elected someone like <i>Whistler’s</i> former mayor Ken Melamed, and
Conservative voters (shut out in this region) would have elected three <i>Vancouver</i> MPs like Wai Young, Douglas
Horne and Andrew Saxton.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
Surrey—Richmond—Fraser Valley—Langley </span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">NDP
voters would have elected two MPs like <i>Surrey’s</i>
Jinny Sims and Jasbir Sandhu, while Green voters would have elected someone
like <i>Hope’s</i> Arthur Green. <b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">The
Atlantic Provinces would not have been a one-party region<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
Nova Scotia</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">, Conservative
voters would have re-elected Scott Armstrong from <i>Colchester County </i>and elected another MP like Arnold LeBlanc from
the francophone <i>District of Clare</i>, while
NDP voters would have re-elected two <i>Halifax</i>
MPs like Megan Leslie and Peter Stoffer.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
New Brunswick</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">, NDP
voters would have elected two MPs like Jason Godin in <i>Bathurst </i>and Jennifer McKenzie in <i>Saint John</i>, and re-elected two Conservative MPs like John
Williamson in<i> Saint Andrews </i>and
Rob Moore in <i>Quispamsis</i>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
Newfoundland & Labrador</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">
Conservative voters would have elected an MP like <i>Gander’s</i> Kevin O’Brien, while NDP voters would have re-elected an
MP like Jack Harris in <i>St. John’s.</i><b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
PEI</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"> Conservative voters
would have re-elected Gail Shea from <i>Tignish</i>
and NDP voters would have elected an MP like Joe Byrne from <i>Charlottetown.</i><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><u><b>Quebec’s pluralism would be
respected</b></u> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
Chaudière-Appalaches—Bas-Saint-Laurent—Gaspésie</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">’s 8 ridings, NDP voters would have
re-elected another MP like <i>Gaspésie’s</i>
Philip Toone, while Bloc voters would have elected an MP like Kédina
Fleury-Samson from <i>Mont-Joli</i>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
Quebec City—Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean—Côte-Nord’s</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"> 11 ridings, NDP voters would have
elected two more MPs like Annick Papillon and Raymond Côté from <i>Quebec City</i>, while Bloc voters would
have elected an MP like Jean-Francois Caron from <i>Jonquière</i>. <b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In <b>Estrie—Mauricie—Centre-du-Québec</b>’s
10 ridings, Conservative voters would have elected another MP like Dominic
Therrien in <i>Trois-Rivières</i>, and Bloc
voters would have elected another MP like Diane Bourgeois in <i>Drummond.<o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In <b>Laurentides—Lanaudière—Outaouais—Abitibi-Témiscamingue—Nord</b>’s
15 ridings, NDP voters would have elected two more MPs like Nycole Turmel or
Françoise Boivin in <i>Gatineau</i> and Pierre
Dionne Labelle in <i>Saint-Jérôme</i>, and
Conservative voters would have elected two more MPs like Michel Surprenant in <i>Terrebonne</i> and Sylvain Charron in <i>Sainte-Anne-des-Lacs.</i> <i><o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In<b>
Montérégie’s</b> 12 ridings, Conservative voters would have elected two more
MPs like Qais Hamidi in <i>Brossard</i>
and Yves Perras in <i>Saint-Constant</i>,
and Bloc voters would have elected two more MPs like Claude DeBellefeuille from
<i>Le Haut-Saint-Laurent</i> and Catherine
Fournier from <i>Sainte-Julie.</i><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
Montreal East—Laval</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">’s
14 ridings, Conservative voters would have elected an MP like Guy Croteau,
while Bloc voters would have elected two more like Gilles Duceppe and Simon
Marchand.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In
Montreal-West</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">’s 8
ridings, NDP voters would have re-elected Hélène LeBlanc, Conservative voters
would have elected an MP like Robert Libman, and Bloc voters would have elected
an MP like Gilbert Paquette. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">“Small
and Rural”</span></u></b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In this year’s tax return, the rebate
for carbon taxes includes a 10% supplement for residents of “small and rural
communities:” those who live outside a Census Metropolitan Area, and presumably
have to use more gasoline. Using that as a definition, 24 of the above examples
of regional MPs come from small and rural communities.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Democratic
nominations<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Today, parties can nominate as they
choose. Canada has no law to stop parties from appointing local candidates. <a href="https://www.fairvote.ca/democratic-nominations/" target="_blank">Fair Vote Canada says</a> they should have to nominate candidates democratically in
order to qualify for campaign expense subsidy.<br />
<br />
I expect parties would nominate local candidates first. As soon as they are
finished, they hold the regional nomination process. I expect it’s an
every-member online vote, after candidates’ speeches, carried online. In the
run-up to the regional nomination, likely a party would hold all-candidates
meetings in each riding. I expect almost all the local candidates would also
stand for the positions of regional candidate, unless one of them was a token
local candidate who had no interest in trying to compete across the region. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">On election day, voters can move a
regional candidate up the regional list if he or she gets enough personal
votes. Voters can elect that candidate ahead of another candidate whom the
party’s regional nomination process had ranked higher. But still, it’s an
advantage to be ranked first. So, the regional nomination process has to rank
them, even if the eight regional candidates are acclaimed.<br />
<br />
I expect some regional-only candidates would also be nominated, to add
diversity to the ballot. Since voters can vote for the regional candidate they
prefer, one of the regional-only candidates could be elected. This could be
quite likely if the strongest local candidate wins a local seat, dropping off
the regional count, opening the door for someone new.<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Overhangs<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">With a regional MMP model, we risk local
sweeps being so extreme that they create “overhangs.” Those are results too
disproportional for the compensatory (“top-up”) MPs to correct, when they are
only 39% of the total. That’s the trade-off in the system design, to keep local
ridings from being almost double their present size.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">The Constitution Act gives each province
specified numbers of MPs. This simulation assumes the threshold is 2.5% in all
provinces, comparable to 5% if votes for the smaller party doubled under PR. Perfect
province-wide proportionality would have resulted in 138 Liberal MPs, 109
Conservatives, 67 New Democrats, 16 Bloc Qu</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">é</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">becois, and 8 Greens. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Overhangs happened in 2015 with the
never-before-seen Liberal sweep of New Brunswick, and with the sweep of Toronto.
This results in a bonus of two MPs for the Liberals. With a real MMP election
where voters have more choice and do not need to cast negative votes, such
sweeps will not normally happen. Also, the small vote for the Greens leaves
them with only six MPs, not the eight which perfect proportionality would give
them. This gives the NDP a bonus also, and random regional rounding differences
make slight changes. My total simulation shows Liberals 141, Conservatives 106,
NDP 69, Bloc 16, Green 6.<b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">More
Greens<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">The 2015 Green vote dropped to only 3.5%
across Canada, while in 2008 it was 6.8%. So no regional PR model will give
most 2015 Green voters full representation. If the Greens doubled their vote
with PR as they would surely have done, they would have elected about 23 MPs
across Canada, getting official party status and overtaking the Bloc.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
<br />Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-4077690111396416922019-03-05T04:00:00.001-05:002021-01-03T16:53:06.794-05:00Why did Germany adopt MMP? <br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Why
did Germany adopt the Mixed-Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system?<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-font-family: Arial;">British
occupation authorities in postwar Germany created MMP in February 1946. The new
Federal Republic of West Germany adopted it in mid-1948, under the name
“Personalized Proportional Representation.”</span><span face=""arial" , sans-serif"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #333333;">Only local governments survived the German defeat in 1945. Occupation
authorities had to set up district and provincial governments, by appointing
officials until democratic elections could be held. Former Nazis were banned
from running.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">The
problems with the Weimar system<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">From 1919 to 1933 the
“Weimar Republic” of Germany had used proportional representation with no
threshold. In the 1928 election 15 parties won seats, including a party which
won only 0.4% of the vote. Hitler’s Nazi Party won 12 of the 491 seats with
2.6% of the vote.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">“This fragmentation made it
hard for parties to build and sustain governing coalitions. Contemporary and
later observers concluded that this hyper-representative electoral system
itself bore significant responsibility for undermining Weimar democracy.”
Germans and occupation authorities had to design a better system. “Most
participants in the electoral system debates concurred that . . .depersonalized
voting had not done enough to foster links between citizens and their
governors.” “The big question was how to devise a system that could avoid
hyper-representativeness, and could combine personal links between voters and
legislators.” (Political Science Professor Susan Scarrow, in “Mixed-Member
Electoral Systems: The Best of Both Worlds?”)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #333333;">Fixing the problems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #333333;">In the American Zone they simply asked local German officials to arrange
for elections based on pre-1933 practices. In the British zone this was
considered dangerous and unwise. The appointed officials were mostly from the
Social Democratic Party (SPD), the leading anti-Hitler party in 1933 and after
the war ended. When the British first tried to persuade them to use the British
voting system, they resisted.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #333333;">In February 1946 </span><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">a new
compromise was agreed <span style="background: white; color: #333333;">for the
British zone, </span>which combined the form of the British system – electors
voting for an individual in their constituency – with the substance of the
former German proportional representation system. Results of individual ballots
were supplemented by the election of additional candidates from a party list,
to increase the total elected to reflect the proportion of votes cast for each
party: the basic principle of MMP. <a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Hlk2514548"><o:p></o:p></a></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk2514548;"><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Austen
Albu invented MMP at a meeting Feb. 16, 1946. (Winning The Peace: the British
in occupied Germany, 1945-1948.) Albu was an engineer and active Labour Party
member who, at age 42, was appointed by the British Labour government’s Minister
responsible for Germany to be head of the ‘German Political Department’ in the
Political Division of the British Control Commission for Germany, and became Deputy
Chairman of the Governmental Sub-Commission. (Albu’s great-grandparents had
come from Poland to England around 1840. In Germany in 1946 he helped Social
Democrat Kurt Schumacher fight off Soviet Zone attempts to fuse the SPD with the
Communist Party. Albu went on to win a UK by-election in 1948, and as a Labour
MP became the Minister of State for Economic Affairs 1965 to 1967.) <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #333333;">Elections were held in October 1946 to select representatives for city,
district and provincial councils, and in April or October 1947 for provincial governments.
A variety of MMP formulas was used in the four provinces in the British zone. Some
British authorities were pushing for a high proportion of local seats, while
local German leaders wanted it strongly proportional. The list seat proportions
ranged from 24% (Hamburg), and 25% (</span><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">North
Rhine-Westphalia) to<span style="background: white; color: #333333;"> 36.5% (Lower
Saxony) and 40% (</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222;">Schleswig-Holstein).</span><span style="background: white; color: #333333;">
However, </span>North Rhine-Westphalia allowed overhang seats, giving it 31%
list MPs, enough to make those results almost fully proportional, while the other three
did not. Also, <span style="background: white; color: #222222;">Schleswig-Holstein</span>’s top-up calculation was an unusual one, and
gave list seats only to parties that won a local seat. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">By January, 1947 the
Provinces in the American Zone had reached the stage of popularly elected
parliaments, mostly using the old German list PR system.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">How did MMP catch on
throughout West Germany? Provincial delegates in mid-1948 designed the first
federal elections for the new state of West Germany. They recognized that
depersonalized voting with no local links, in the Weimar Republic, had not made
government democratic enough. The SPD liked MMP, but some SPD leaders wanted a
5% threshold to prevent the splintering of parties that plagued the Weimar
Republic. The SPD wanted 50% list MPs, but the final design was 40% list MPs,
with a 5% threshold.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Why
MMP worked<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br />
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<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Personalizing PR has worked. Professor
Matthew Shugart finds “The presence of the [local MPs] induces list members to
act as though they had smaller geographic constituencies.” (In “Mixed-Member
Electoral Systems: The Best of Both Worlds?”)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif"><br /></span>
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif"><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;">Professor Massicotte reports this too: “There is practically no
difference — once elected — in the status or behaviour of constituency
candidates and list candidates. . . . The voters do not perceive the difference
at all.” “Typically, a list member starts out by running unsuccessfully in a
constituency. To run, he or she has to become familiar with the local issues.
The person tries again in the next election. If his or her party comes to
power, its number of list seats will decline noticeably and the only way to get
elected will likely be by running in a constituency. For this reason, such a
person will remain active in the constituency during his or her term of office
and give such activities almost as much effort as a “directly” elected member.”
(pp. 61 and 74, <a href="https://www.democratienouvelle.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/louis_massicotte-a_la_recherche_un_mode_scrutin_mixte_compensatoire_document_travail_2004.pdf" target="_blank">Working Document</a>)<br /><br /></span></span></div></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif">1949
and beyond: improving MMP<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">Until the new West Germany’s
first federal election in 1949, democratic politics had developed in the
various provinces, with some local parties. Therefore, the threshold was
applied at the provincial level rather than nation-wide. This let ten parties win
seats in 1949, counting the new centre-right Christian Democratic Union and its
Bavarian wing the Christian Social Union as one party. Four of these parties fell
below the threshold nationally but won more than 5% in at least one province. The
“German Party,” rooted in Lower Saxony where it won 17.8%, won only 4.0% but
elected 17 MPs. The Bavaria Party won only 4.2% but won 20.9% in Bavaria. The
Centre Party won only 3.1% but won 8.9% in North Rhine-Westphalia. The DKP-DRP
won only 1.8% but won 8.1% in Lower Saxony. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In 1949 the voter had only
one vote, for a party and its local candidate. If voters wanted to “stop the
SPD” or “stop the CDU” they might vote strategically, hurting smaller parties.
Despite strategic voting, the outcome with provincial thresholds did not look
much less fragmented than the Weimar elections. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">SPD leader Kurt Schumacher
was expected to be the first Chancellor of West Germany. A heroic figure, at
age 19 he had lost an arm in the First World War, and had been imprisoned for
12 years during Hitler’s regime. In the 1949 election the SPD was expected to
be the largest party, followed by the CDU/CSU. A Grand Coalition of the SPD and
CDU existed in many provinces. In the British Zone, the four provinces had two SPD governments, one SPD-led Grand Coalition, and one CDU-led Grand Coalition. Many CDU leaders, including its “Christian Socialist”
wing, wanted similar unity for the new West Germany, as did most small parties. However,
CDU leader Konrad Adenauer assembled instead a narrow coalition: the CDU/CSU,
their right-liberal FDP allies, and the regional 17-seat “German Party,” which
together had 208 seats. After sIx dissenters, the vote to make Adenauer
Chancellor was 202 of the 401 MPs, his famous one-seat majority. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span face=""arial" , sans-serif">In 1953 the big improvement
started: the two-vote system, making the system still more personal. You could
vote for the local candidate you wanted, without hurting the party you
preferred. Still, the party system simplified to six parties, two of which were
below 5% but had local strongholds and won some local seats, an exception to
the 5% threshold. Finally, for the 1957 election the 5% threshold was
nation-wide (as it has remained), leaving only four parties in Parliament. In
16 elections after 1957, no party has won a one-party majority, yet the
16 coalition governments have been stable.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br />Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-14894182580994312352018-09-25T13:23:00.005-04:002021-01-31T01:27:52.420-05:00In New Brunswick the party with more votes got fewer seats -- again.<br />
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<span face="arial, sans-serif" lang="" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">New Brunswick voters lost in this
year’s election, as the party with more votes got fewer seats, as in 2006.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span face="arial, sans-serif" lang="" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">With only 31.9% of the votes, the
New Brunswick PCs have won 22 seats, while the Liberals with 37.8% of the votes
have won only 21 seats. Since the potential Conservative ally, the People’s
Alliance of New Brunswick, has three seats while the Greens also have three
seats, the Conservatives claim they will form the next government.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span face="arial, sans-serif" lang="" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span face="arial, sans-serif" lang="" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">This "plurality reversal" with a spread of 5.9% of the votes is the worst across Canada in 52 years. In the Quebec election of 1966 the Union Nationale won more seats than the Liberals despite having 6.5% fewer votes. </span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Fair Province-wide result: 19
Liberals, 16 PCs, 6 Greens, 6 People’s Alliance, 2 NDP<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<span face="arial, sans-serif" lang="" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">But a fair and proportional voting
system would have let every vote count. With 49 MLAs in New Brunswick, those
Liberal voters deserved to elect 19 MLAs against only 16 PCs. Voters for the
Greens and People’s Alliance deserved six MLAs each, while the 5% who voted NDP
deserved two MLAs. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Instead
of a coalition representing only 44% of voters, the new government would have
been accountable to the majority of voters.</span></div>
<br />
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<span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Donald
Wright, a professor of political science at the University of New Brunswick,
<a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-liberals-conservatives-both-claim-nb-election/" target="_blank">says: “Darwin was right</a>. Ecosystems need genetic diversity … finally, we have
some in the legislature.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span face="arial, sans-serif" lang="" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Worse, New Brunswick appears more
divided into linguistic groups than it really is.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">New Brunswick’s Commission on
Legislative Democracy proposed four regions</span></u></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face="arial, sans-serif" lang="" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The
New Brunswick <a href="https://www.electionsnb.ca/content/dam/enb/pdf/cld/CLDFinalReport-e.pdf" target="_blank">Commission on Legislative Democracy proposed</a> a proportional
voting system in 2004 with four regions, so that voters in each region would be
fairly represented in both government and opposition. Their Mixed Member Proportional
model was similar to the model PEI voters chose in their plebiscite in November
2016.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span face="arial, sans-serif" lang="" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In the 12 ridings of Northern New
Brunswick, heavily francophone, the Liberals won all but one seat. However,
those voters cast 24% of their votes for the PCs, 8.9% for the Greens and 8.5%
for the NDP. They could have elected regional MLAs like PCs Danny Soucy and Jeannot
Volpe, Green Charles Thériault who won 32% of the local vote and New Democrat Jean
Maurice Landry who won 30%.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span face="arial, sans-serif" lang="" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Conversely, in the 12 ridings of
the South West, heavily English-speaking, Liberal voters elected only one MLA.
They deserved two more, like incumbents John Ames and Rick Doucet. Green voters
also deserved an MLA like Deputy Leader Marilyn M</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">erritt</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" lang="" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">-G</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">ray, while People’s Alliance voters
deserved two like Jim Bedford and Craig Dykeman.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In
the South East someone like Michel Boudreau (past-President of the New Brunswick Federation of Labour)</span><span face="helvetica, arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #1c1e21; font-size: 12px;"> </span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">would have been a
regional NDP MLA. </span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">In Central New Brunswick
Liberal Bill Fraser could have returned as a Regional MLA, while someone like Hanwell councillor
Susan Jonah would have become a second Green MLA for the region.</span></div>
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<span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I’m
not talking about a closed-list system. The open-regional-list <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2016/03/mmp-for-canada.html" target="_blank">Mixed
Member Proportional</a> system means every MLA has faced the voters. That’s
the system PEI voters chose last November, with a <a href="https://i.cbc.ca/1.3811524.1476882686!/fileImage/httpImage/mmp-ballot.png" target="_blank">workable ballot as you can see here</a>. That's also the way the BC <a href="https://www.bcndp.ca/pro-rep" target="_blank">NDP wants the Mixed Member
system</a> to work: voters would cast two ballots: one for a local MLA and
one for a regional representative. It’s also <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2016/12/the-open-list-mixed-member-proportional.html" target="_blank">the model on which the federal Electoral Reform Committee</a> found
consensus: a local and personalized proportional representation model. (The 2004 Commission recommended a closed-list MMP model, but Fair Vote Canada no longer recommends that version.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">You have two votes<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">You
have two votes: one for your local MLA, and one for a regional MLA from your
local region. You cast your second vote for a party’s regional candidate you
prefer, which counts as a vote for that party. This is the same practical model
used in Scotland, with one vital improvement: Canadian voters would like
to vote for a specific regional candidate and hold them accountable.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The best of both worlds<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Would
proportional representation hurt small communities? Just the opposite: voters
are guaranteed two things which equal better local representation:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">1.
A local MLA who will champion their
area.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">2.
An MLA whose views best reflect their values, someone they helped elect in
their local district or local region.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">No
longer does one person claim to speak for everyone in the district. No longer
does one party claim unbridled power with only 40% support. Local districts are
bigger than today, but in return you have competing MLAs: a local MLA, and
about five regional MLAs from your local region.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Parties will work together<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Parties
will, unless one party had outright majority support, have to work together -
to earn our trust where others have broken it, and to show that a new kind of
governance is possible. Research clearly shows that proportionately-elected
governments and cooperative decision-making produce better policy outcomes and
sustainable progress on major issues over the long term.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Some
fear-mongers claim proportional representation favours extremists. However, as
a former conservative MLA in British Columbia, Nick Loenen, said recently “The best guarantee against abuse of government power is to share that power
among the many, rather than the few."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Regional nominations<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Typically,
party members will nominate local candidates first, then hold a regional
nomination process. Often the regional candidates will include the local
candidates, plus a few regional-only candidates who will add diversity and
balance to the regional slate. In order to <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2016/01/canada-needs-democratically-nominated.html" target="_blank">ensure democratic nominations</a>, it would be useful to deny
taxpayer subsidy to any party not nominating democratically. The meeting would
decide what rank order each would have on the regional ballot. But then voters
in the region would have the final choice.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><u><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">2006<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In
2006 New Brunswick saw a sad irony: Bernard's Lord's PCs had planned a
referendum on the Commission on Legislative Democracy's recommended PR
system, which Lord supported. When a resignation forced an early election, he
won the most votes but the Liberals won the most seats, and
shelved the Commission on Legislative Democracy's recommendation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<b><u><span face="arial, sans-serif" lang="" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Note:</span></u></b><span face="arial, sans-serif" lang="" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">
my regional simulation, due to the breakdown between the four regions, happens
to cost the People’s Alliance a seat, to the benefit of the PCs. This is
because the PA cast their appeal mainly to the South West and Central regions, and
got only 3% in the North and 4% in the South East, too few to elect anyone, so
those 6,806 votes were ineffective. Result: </span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">19 Liberals, 17 PCs, 6 Greens,
5 People’s Alliance, 2 NDP. </span><span face="arial, sans-serif" lang="" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<o:p></o:p>
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<b><u><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Technical note</span></u></b><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">: the
New Brunswick Commission on Legislative Democracy proposed four regions which
mostly had 14 MLAs each, nine local and five regional. At that time New
Brunswick had 55 MLAs. Today that has shrunk to 49, so most regions have 12
MLAs. I am still using five regional MLAs for each region, leaving seven or eight local
MLAs. That means 40.8% of the MLAs are regional, which matches the 40% BC is
looking at. A region with only four regional MLAs, only one-third, would not be
enough to correct the disproportional results in New Brunswick’s disparate
regions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-17934612057829465372018-06-12T21:04:00.010-04:002022-05-17T18:09:52.748-04:00What if every vote in Ontario had counted in 2018?<br />
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<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">If every vote in Ontario had counted in 2018, what would that look
like?<o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">No one man would have a one-party government elected by only 40.5% of
the votes. <o:p></o:p></span></u></b>
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<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">On the votes cast in 2018, with proportional representation our Ontario
legislature should have 51 PC MPPs, 42 New Democrats, 25 Liberals, and 6
Greens.<o:p></o:p></span>
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<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Rural and urban voters in every region of Ontario would have </span><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">effective votes and </span><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">fair representation in both government and opposition. That’s a basic
principle of proportional representation.<o:p></o:p></span>
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<br />
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<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">For example, let’s see what would happen using the mixed-member
proportional system with open lists in ten regions. The regions would have
an average of 12 MPPs each (seven local MPPs, five regional MPPs elected to
top-up seats).</span><br />
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
</div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Did your vote count?<o:p></o:p></span></u></b>
</div>
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<br />
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<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In 2018, 52% of Ontario votes were not effective to help elect an MPP, as
the First-Past-The-Post system threw them in the trash.</span>
</div>
<br />
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<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">And who can say what a real democratic voting system would have given
Ontario? This year’s 58% turnout was the highest in five Ontario
elections. But last year New Zealand, where every vote counts, saw a 79%
turnout elect a new government with three-party support.<o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
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<br />
</div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The open-list MMP system:</span></u></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">
Every MPP represents actual voters and real communities<o:p></o:p></span></u></b>
</div>
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<br />
</div>
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<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">We’re not talking about a model with candidates appointed by central
parties. We’re talking about the <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2010/04/mmp-made-easy.html" target="_blank">mixed member system</a></span> designed by the Law Commission of Canada and endorsed by the Ontario
NDP Convention in 2014, where every MPP represents actual voters and real
communities. The majority of MPPs will be elected by local ridings as we do
today, preserving the traditional link between voter and MPP. The other 39%
are elected as regional MPPs, topping-up the numbers of MPPs from your local
region so the total is proportional to the votes for each party.<o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
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<br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">You have two votes. One is for your local MPP. The second helps elect
regional MPPs for the top-up seats (as above). </span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Hlk508561205"></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk508561205;"><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The ballot would look like<a href="https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thetelegram.com%2Fmedia%2Fphotologue%2Fphotos%2Fcache%2Fmmp-ballot-3156305_large.jpg&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thetelegram.com%2Fnews%2Fregional%2Fprince-edward-islanders-choose-mmpr-in-electoral-reform-plebiscite-16551%2F&docid=uwblVZrdAnfH-M&tbnid=Sq8X0n0ymxi6VM%3A&vet=10ahUKEwjmr46X0ZnkAhVLT98KHeE6DOYQMwilAShVMFU..i&w=800&h=535&itg=1&bih=920&biw=1904&q=pei%20plebiscite%202016%20ballot&ved=0ahUKEwjmr46X0ZnkAhVLT98KHeE6DOYQMwilAShVMFU&iact=mrc&uact=8" target="_blank"> </a></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk508561205;"><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="https://i.cbc.ca/1.3811524.1476882686!/fileImage/httpImage/mmp-ballot.png" target="_blank">this ballot that PEI voters chose</a></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk508561205;"><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> in their 2016 plebiscite.</span></span><br />
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Unlike the closed-list MMP model Ontario voters </span><span class="MsoHyperlink" face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2011/10/did-ontarians-reject-province-wide.html" target="_blank">did not support</a></span><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> in 2007, you can cast a personal vote for a candidate
within the regional list. This is commonly called “open list.” All MPPs
have faced the voters. No one is guaranteed a seat. The region is small
enough that the regional MPPs are accountable.</span>
</div>
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</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">How would regional MPPs serve residents?<o:p></o:p></span></u></b>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">See <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2013/05/how-do-regional-mps-manage-to-serve.html" target="_blank">how it works in Scotland</a></span>.<o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Ontario’s Rural-Urban Divide</span></u></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
Our winner-take-all voting system exaggerates Ontario’s regional
differences, especially the rural-urban divide.<o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Ontario’s suburban, small-town and rural voters somehow combined to make
Doug Ford an all-powerful premier. But his majority in this year’s Ontario
election came from our winner-take all voting system, not from voters. It
came from the 31-MPP bonus that our skewed system foisted on those voters
by throwing 51% of their ballots in the trash.<o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Take the 43 ridings in Toronto’s suburbs and the GTA. They elect more
than one-third of Ontario’s MPPs. Voters for Doug Ford’s PCs swept them,
electing all but seven. But only 45% of those voters voted PC. A
proportional system would have let voters elect 12 New Democrats, not just
six; 10 Liberals, not just one; and a Green Party MPP. Instead of 36 PC
MPPs, they would have had 20.<o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">What’s more, the PC heartland, the blue belt running from Cornwall to
Barrie to Chatham, is not nearly as blue as it looks. Those 37 ridings
elected 33 PC MPPs, all but four, yet they voted only 48% PC. A
proportional system would have let those voters elect 11 NDP MPPs, not
just three; five Liberals rather than zero; and three Greens, not just
one, leaving the PCs with 18.<o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Conversely, Ontario’s urban cores (electing 12 MPPs in Toronto, nine in
Hamilton-Niagara, five in Ottawa, and three each in London and Windsor)
voted 29% PC but elected only four MPPs to Doug Ford’s caucus. A
proportional system would have added five more. Picture the governing
caucus with two more MPPs from Central Toronto (south of the 401, between
Scarborough and Etobicoke) like Deputy Mayor Denzil Minnan-Wong, Andrew
Kirsch, Gillian Smith, Jon Kieran or Mark DeMontis. With former MP Susan
Truppe from London, an MPP like April Jeffs from Niagara Region and an MPP
like Chris Lewis from Windsor-Essex. <o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The NDP Caucus would also be more representative, with MPPs like Sean
Conway from Peterborough, Joanne Belanger from Belleville, Bonnie
Jean-Louis and Chandra Pasma from the Ottawa area, Sarnia’s Kathy
Alexander, Bruce County’s Jan Johnstone, Barrie’s Pekka Reinio,
Orillia’s Elizabeth Van Houtte, Brantford’s Alex Felsky, Whitby’s
Niki Lundquist, Newmarket‘s Melissa Williams, and Georgina’s Dave
Szollosy.<o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
</div>
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Liberal voters would be fairly represented, with 25 MPPs holding the
balance of power, as would Green voters with six MPPs. See details
below.</span><br />
<br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Competing MPPs:<o:p></o:p></span></u></b>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">You have a</span><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">
local MPP who will champion your community, and about five competing
regional MPPs, normally including one whose views best reflect your values,
someone you helped elect in your local district or local region.</span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">York—Durham <o:p></o:p></span></u></b>
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">This was the stronghold of Doug Ford’s false majority. PC voters cast
only 50% of the votes in York Region and Durham Region, yet elected 14
of the 15 MPPs. With MMP, instead of electing only one NDP member, they
would have also elected three New Democrat regional MPPs (such as Niki
Lundquist, Melissa Williams and Nerissa Cariño or Joel Usher
or Dave Szollosy), and three Liberal regional MPPs (maybe Steven
Del Duca, Joe Dickson and Helena Jaczek), along with eight PCs.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span>
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Peel—Oakville<o:p></o:p></span></u></b>
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Voters electing 13 MPPs from Peel Region and Oakville would, instead of
electing only three NDP members and 10 PCs, have elected three Regional
Liberal MPPs (maybe Charles Sousa, Kevin Flynn, and Dipika Damerla), and
one more New Democrat (maybe Nikki Clarke or Jagroop Singh), along with
six Progressive Conservatives.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span>
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">City of Toronto<o:p></o:p></span></u></b>
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Voters electing 12 MPPs from North York-Scarborough would, instead of
electing only one New Democrat and three Liberals, have elected two NDP
regional MPPs (such as Felicia Samuel and Zeyd Bismilla) and another
Liberal MPP (maybe Mike Colle), along with five PCs.<br />
<br />
Voters electing 13 MPPs from Toronto—Etobicoke-York would, instead of
electing only NDP and PC MPPs, have elected three Liberals and a Green,
along with six New Democrats and three PCs.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span>
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Mid-East Ontario (Kingston—Peterborough)<o:p></o:p></span></u></b>
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Voters electing eight MPPs from Mid-East Ontario would, instead of
electing one New Democrat and seven PCs, have elected two Liberal
regional MPPs such as Jeff Leal and Sophie Kiwala), along with another
New Democrat (maybe Peterborough’s Sean Conway or Belleville’s Joanne
Belanger) and four local PC MPPs.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span>
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Eastern Ontario (Ottawa—Cornwall)<o:p></o:p></span></u></b>
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Voters electing 11 MPPs from Eastern Ontario would, instead of electing
only one New Democrat, have elected two regional NDP MPPs (maybe
Ottawa’s Chandra Pasma and Bonnie Jean-Louis or John Hansen) along with
three Liberals and five PCs.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span>
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Central West (Simcoe—Bruce—Waterloo</span></u></b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">)<o:p></o:p></span>
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Voters electing 15 MPPs from Central West Ontario would, instead of
electing only two New Democrats and a Green but no Liberals, have
elected two more New Democrat MPPs and two Liberals, along with Green
leader Mike Schreiner and a second Green MPP, and seven local PC
MPPs.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span>
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Central South (Hamilton—Niagara—Brantford--Burlington)<o:p></o:p></span></u></b>
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Voters electing 13 MPPs from Central South Ontario would, instead of
electing no Liberal or Green MPP, have elected two regional Liberal MPPs
(maybe Indira Naidoo-Harris and Jim Bradley) and a Green regional
MPP, along with five New Democrat MPPs and five PCs.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span>
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Southwest (London—Windsor)<o:p></o:p></span></u></b>
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Voters electing 12 MPPs from Southwest Ontario would, instead of
electing no Liberal or Green MPP, have elected a regional Liberal MPP
(maybe London’s Kate Graham) and a Green, along with five New Democrats
and five PCs.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span>
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Northern Ontario<o:p></o:p></span></u></b>
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Voters electing 12 MPPs from Northern Ontario would, instead of
electing only one Liberal MPP and three PCs, have elected a regional
Liberal MPP and a regional PC MPP along with six New Democrat
MPPs.</span></p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Diversity<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The
NDP caucus already had good diversity of women and black candidates, but only
one aboriginal. Top-up MPPs elected to regional seats will better represent
groups that have been historically under-represented. In the above simulation,
even the NDP would have 16 regional MPPs. Ontario will have the kind of
diversity around the table that we need to be more focussed on major policy issues. <o:p></o:p></span></p><br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">What sort of government would Ontario have had?<o:p></o:p></span></u></b>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Cooperation between parties representing a majority can get a lot of good
things done. This is the norm in most western democracies.<o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The Ontario government might have been:<o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">1. A minority PC government with a supply-and-confidence agreement (like
the Accord in Ontario in 1985) with the Liberals, ensuring a stable
government for four years (giving the Liberals time to rebuild). Possible
but unlikely.<o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">2. A minority NDP government with a supply-and-confidence agreement (like
the Accord in Ontario in 1985) with the Liberals, ensuring a stable
government for four years (giving the Liberals time to rebuild). More
likely than option 1.<o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">3. A coalition government between the NDP and the Liberals. Less likely
in today’s climate, more likely under PR when the public is more used to
cooperation between parties representing a majority.<o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">4. A coalition government between the PCs and the Liberals. Possible but
less likely, even after the public is more used to cooperation between
parties representing a majority.<o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">5. A minority government with no agreement or Accord, relying on support
from one or more other parties issue by issue. Possible but less stable
(although Bill Davis made it work for four years from 1977 to 1981). Today,
it would be very unstable because the minority government would be looking
for an excuse to roll the dice and try for an accidental majority. Under PR,
when an accidental false majority would not be possible, everyone might want
to make it work (as happened in Scotland for four years from 2007 to
2011).</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><b><br /></b></span></u>
<u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><b>Ontario NDP Policy (Convention)</b><o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoQuote" style="line-height: 115%; margin: 0cm 43.1pt 0.0001pt;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">BE IT RESOLVED THAT the Ontario NDP reaffirms its endorsement of a
system of proportional representation for Ontario. <o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoQuote" style="line-height: 115%; margin: 0cm 43.1pt 0.0001pt;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED THAT the proposed system of voting
incorporate the following characteristics:<o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoQuote" style="line-height: 115%; margin: 0cm 43.1pt 0.0001pt;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">a) preservation of the traditional link between voter and MPP by
keeping constituency seats; <o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoQuote" style="line-height: 115%; margin: 0cm 43.1pt 0.0001pt;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">b) two votes: one for a local constituency candidate and one for a
Party's list of candidates; <o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoQuote" style="line-height: 115%; margin: 0cm 43.1pt 0.0001pt;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">c) Party lists to be developed and applied at a regional rather than
provincial level; <o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoQuote" style="line-height: 115%; margin: 0cm 43.1pt 0.0001pt;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">d) restoration and enhancement of democracy through the provision of
additional seats in the Legislature; <o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoQuote" style="line-height: 115%; margin: 0cm 43.1pt 0.0001pt;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">e) additional seats to be filled from Party Lists so as to offset
disproportionality between the constituency elections and the popular
Party vote.<o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoQuote" style="line-height: 115%; margin: 0cm 43.1pt 0.0001pt;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">f) voters to have the option of either endorsing the party’s regional
list, or casting a personal vote for a candidate within the regional
list.</span></div><div align="left" class="MsoQuote" style="line-height: 115%; margin: 0cm 43.1pt 0.0001pt;"><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Updated: An
Ontario NDP government will convene a Citizen's Assembly (an independent group
of citizens) that will be mandated to develop a made-in-Ontario model of MMP.
The group will be supported in its work by a panel of experts and
representatives of Ontario's major parties. The CA will also be mandated
to make recommendations to the government on timelines, implementation and
ratification for the change to an MPP voting system.<o:p></o:p></span></p></span></div><div align="left" class="MsoQuote" style="line-height: 115%; margin: 0cm 43.1pt 0.0001pt;"><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><br /><o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<b style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><u>Technical Notes</u></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">:</span>
</div>
</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Because of rounding errors when Ontario is divided into ten
regions, the projection above happens to give the PCs a bonus of 1, at
the cost of the Greens. The overall
results are still close to proportionality. <o:p></o:p></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br />
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">I have also done a simulation with the Green vote doubling. Once every vote
counts, with no more strategic voting, that’s likely what would happen. That
would mean Green voters would have cast 8.9% of the votes, and should elect
11 MPPs. Sure enough, my simulation shows Green voters electing a regional
MPP in each of the 10 regions. In Central West (Simcoe-Bruce-Wellington)
they would elect Mike Schreiner and a second MPP.</span><br />
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The calculation for any PR system has to choose a rounding method, to round
fractions up and down. I have used the “largest remainder” calculation,
which Germany used until recently, because it is the simplest and most
transparent. In a 10-MPP region, if Party A deserves 3.2 MPPs, Party B
deserves 3.1, Party C deserves 2.3, and Party D deserves 1.4, which party
gets the tenth seat? Party D has a remainder of 0.4, the largest remainder.
In a region where one party wins a bonus (“overhang”), I allocate the
remaining seats among the remaining parties by the same
calculation.</span></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The
purpose of the compensatory regional seats is to correct disproportional local
results, not to provide a parallel system of getting elected. The Law
Commission recommended that the right to nominate candidates for regional
top-up seats should be limited to those parties which have candidates standing
for election in at least one-third of the ridings within the top-up region.
Jenkins recommended 50%. This prevents a possible distortion of the system by
parties pretending to split into twin decoy parties for the regional seats, the
trick which Berlusconi invented to sabotage Italy’s voting system.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><u><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">How
many MPPs should Ontario have?<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">One of
the advantages of a Citizens Assembly on Electoral Reform is to decide this question,
since elected politicians are too nervous about recommending more MPPs.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">In
2002 Jack Murray’s Ontario NDP PR Task Force was dealing with Mike Harris
having cut the number of MPPs by 27. The Task Force recommended restoring the
27 MPPs and adding “some” additional MPPs to enhance democracy, in the interests
of proportionality. It suggested at least 30 percent of MPPs be regional top-up
MPPs, and mentioned Wales where 33% are regional top-ups. In fact most experts
recommend 40%. Scotland has 43%. New Zealand has 40%. The 2007 Ontario Citizens
Assembly struggled with this issue, and ended up recommending the 103 seats be
reduced to 90, and the total be increased to 129, with 39 top-up MPPs (30%).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">If an
MMP system for Ontario kept the present 124 ridings and added 30% top-up seats,
that would mean 177 MPPs, 53 top-up. If the ratio was 40%, that would be 207
MPPs, 83 top-up, which no one has proposed. So the calculations above assume the present 124 MPPs
continue, with local ridings reduced to 76 seats, plus 48 regional top-up seats
(39%). I hope a Citizens Assembly would increase the number of MPPs.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">(Note:
this post was updated May 17, 2022.)</span> </p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: left; text-indent: -18pt;"><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></div></blockquote><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><br /><br /></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><br /></div>
Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-50185900139710012002018-03-10T01:52:00.001-05:002021-01-31T01:35:50.081-05:00What if every vote in Ontario counted this year?<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">If every vote in Ontario counted
this year, what would that look like?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Rural and urban voters in every
region of Ontario would have </span><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">effective votes and </span><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">fair representation in both government and opposition.
That’s a basic </span><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://www.fairvote.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2009Statement_of_Purpose.pdf"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">principle of proportional
representation</span></a></span><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">For example, let’s see what would
happen in Ontario’s new 124-MPP legislature, using the votes cast in 2014. I am
using the mixed-member proportional system with open lists in ten regions with
an average of 12 MPPs each (seven local MPPs, five regional MPPs). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Ontario-wide result<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">For the new 124 seats, with
proportional representation I get Liberals 49, PCs 37, NDP 30, Green 8.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Did your vote count?<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In 2014 many votes did not count,
as the First-Past-The-Post system threw them in the trash. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In Toronto, Peel Region and Halton
Region the 48% of voters who voted Liberal elected 91% of their MPPs (30 of
those 33 MPPs). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Result: the Official
Opposition PC caucus has no representative of those 370,000 diverse PC voters. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The 304,000 who voted NDP elected only three
MPPs. The 54,000 Green voters might as well have stayed home.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">But take the three regions (below) of
southern Ontario surrounding the big four metropolitan areas, stretching from
Pembroke to Windsor. In 2014 the 37% of those voters who voted Progressive
Conservative elected 62% of the MPPs from those regions, so the 30% who voted
Liberal elected only 21% of them, the 25% who voted NDP elected only 17% of
them, and the 7% who voted Green elected no one.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The open-list MMP system:</span></u></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></u></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Every MPP represents actual
voters and real communities<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">We’re
not talking about a model with candidates appointed by central parties. We’re
talking about the <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2010/04/mmp-made-easy.html" target="_blank">mixed
member system</a> designed by the Law Commission of Canada and endorsed by
the Ontario NDP Convention in 2014, where every MPP represents actual voters
and real communities. The majority of MPPs will be elected by local ridings as
we do today, preserving the traditional link between voter and MPP. The other 39%
are elected as regional MPPs, topping-up the numbers of MPPs from your local
region so the total is proportional to the votes for each party.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">You
have two votes. One is for your local MPP. The second helps elect regional
MPPs, topping-up the numbers of MPPs from your local region so the total is
proportional to the votes for each party. The ballot would look like <a href="https://i.cbc.ca/1.3811524.1476882686!/fileImage/httpImage/mmp-ballot.png" target="_blank">this ballot that PEI voters chose</a> in 2016.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Unlike
the closed-list MMP model Ontario voters <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2011/10/did-ontarians-reject-province-wide.html" target="_blank">did not support</a> in 2007, you can cast a
personal vote for a candidate within the regional list. This is commonly
called “open list.” All MPPs have faced the voters. No one is guaranteed a
seat. The region is small enough that the regional MPPs are accountable.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">How would regional MPs serve
residents?<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">See <a href="http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2013/05/how-do-regional-mps-manage-to-serve.html" target="_blank">how it works in Scotland</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Competing MPPs:<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">You have a</span><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> local MPP who will champion your community,
and about five competing regional MPPs, normally including one whose views best
reflect your values, someone you helped elect in your local district or local
region.</span><span face=""trebuchet ms" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Central West (Simcoe—Bruce—Wellington)<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Voters electing nine MPPs from Central
West Ontario would, instead of electing only two Liberals (Barrie’s Ann
Hoggarth and Guelph’s Liz Sandals) and no New Democrats, have elected four
local PC MPPs and two Liberals, along with a regional Liberal MPP (maybe
long-time PR supporter Fred Larsen from Orillia), a New Democrat regional MPP (maybe Simcoe County's Doris Middleton or </span><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Guelph’s James Gordon), and a Green (no doubt party leader Mike Schreiner).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Central East (Kingston—Peterborough)<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Voters electing nine MPPs from Central
East Ontario would, instead of electing no New Democrats, have elected four
local PC MPPs and three Liberal MPPs, along with two New Democrat regional MPPs
(maybe Kingston’s Mary Rita Holland and Peterborough’s Sheila Wood).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Southwest (London—Windsor)</span></u></b><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Voters electing 13 MPPs from Southwest
Ontario would, instead of electing only one Liberal MPP and no Green, have
elected two regional Liberal MPPs (maybe Windsor’s Teresa Piruzza and Huron
school trustee </span><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Colleen Schenk</span>)
along with<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> <span lang="EN-US">five New Democrat
MPPs, four PCs, and a Green regional MPP (maybe London’s William Sorrell, Green
shadow cabinet Labour critic).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Toronto <o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Voters electing 13 MPPs from Central
Toronto-Scarborough would, instead of electing only one NDP member (Peter
Tabuns) and no PCs, have elected seven local Liberal MPPs and one New Democrat,
along with two New Democrat regional MPPs (maybe Michael Prue and Rosario
Marchese or Jonah Schein), two Progressive Conservatives (maybe Justine Deluce
and Prof. Liang Chen), and one Green (maybe Tim Grant, Green shadow cabinet
critic for Transportation). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Voters electing 12 MPPs from Northern
Toronto—Etobicoke-York would, instead of electing only one NDP member (Cheri
DiNovo) and no PCs, have elected six local Liberal MPPs and one New Democrat,
along with one New Democrat regional MPP (maybe Paul Ferreira or Tom Rakocevic),
three Progressive Conservatives (maybe Doug Holyday, Robin Martin and Michael
Ceci), and one Green (maybe Dr. Teresa Pun, Green shadow cabinet Health critic).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Peel—Halton<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Voters electing 15 MPPs from Peel
and Halton Regions would, instead of electing only one NDP member (Jagmeet
Singh) and no PCs, have elected eight local Liberal MPPs and one New Democrat,
along with two New Democrat regional MPPs (maybe Gugni Panaich and Kevin Troake),
and four Progressive Conservatives (maybe Effie Triantafilopoulos, Ted
Chudleigh, Jane McKenna and Jeff White).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">York—Durham <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Voters electing 15 MPPs from York
Region and Durham Region would, instead of electing three PCs and only one NDP
member, have elected two more PCs (maybe Jane Twinney and Farid Wassef) along
with two New Democrat regional MPPs (maybe Laura Bowman from</span><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #212121; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> East Gwillimbury</span><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> <span lang="EN-US">and Whitby’s Ryan Kelly), three Progressive
Conservatives (maybe Doug Holyday, Robin Martin and Michael Ceci), and one
Green (maybe Peter Elgie or </span></span><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Stacey
Leadbetter</span><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Central South (Hamilton—Waterloo—Niagara—Brantford)<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Voters electing 16 MPPs from Central
South Ontario would, instead of electing only three PC MPPs and no Green, have
elected five MPPs from each major party and a Green regional MPP (maybe Kitchener’s
Stacey Danckert, Green shadow cabinet Finance critic).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Ottawa—Cornwall<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Voters electing ten MPPs from Eastern Ontario would, instead of electing no New Democrat or Green, have elected four
Liberal MPPs and four PC MPPs along with a New Democrat regional MPP (maybe Ottawa’s
Jennifer McKenzie) and a Green regional MPP (maybe Andrew West, Green Shadow
Cabinet Attorney General critic).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Northern Ontario <o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Voters electing 12 MPPs from Northern
Ontario would, instead of electing only one PC MPP and no Green, have elected a
regional PC MPP (maybe Timmins mayor Steve Black</span><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">) along with</span><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> <span lang="EN-US">five New
Democrat MPPs, four Liberals, and a Green regional MPP (maybe North Bay’s Nicole
Peltier, Green shadow cabinet critic for Consumer Services).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">A projection<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">This projection assumes voters
voted as they did in 2014. But, as <a href="http://prof./">Prof.</a><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3guVBhKmDc" target="_blank"> Dennis
Pilon says</a>: "Now keep in mind that, when you change the voting
system, you also change the incentives that affect the kinds of decisions that
voters might make. For instance, we know that, when every vote counts, voters
won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or casting a strategic vote.
Thus, we should expect that support for different parties might change."</span></i><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><u>Technical
Notes:<o:p></o:p></u></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">1. The
calculation for any PR system has to choose a rounding method, to round
fractions up and down. I have used the “largest remainder” calculation, which
Germany used until recently, because it is the simplest and most transparent.
In a 10-MLA region, if Party A deserves 3.2 MLAs, Party B deserves 3.1, Party C
deserves 2.3, and Party D deserves 1.4, which party gets the tenth seat? Party
D has a remainder of 0.4, the largest remainder. In a region where one party
wins a bonus (“overhang”), I allocate the remaining seats among the remaining
parties by the same calculation.</span></div>
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></i><br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">2. </span></i><span style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span face=""arial" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The
purpose of the compensatory regional seats is to correct disproportional local
results, not to provide a parallel system of getting elected. The Law
Commission recommended that the right to nominate candidates for regional
top-up seats should be limited to those parties which have candidates standing
for election in at least one-third of the ridings within the top-up region. Jenkins
recommended 50%. This prevents a possible distortion of the system by parties
pretending to split into twin decoy parties for the regional seats, the trick
which Berlusconi invented to sabotage Italy’s voting system.</span></span><br />
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<br />Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.com0