tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post1851598567296297701..comments2023-09-01T00:35:22.182-04:00Comments on Wilf Day's Blog: What lessons can be learned from the results of the 2018 BC referendum on proportional representation?Wilf Dayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05546880754492040363noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6615716556540686703.post-34702417923467223932019-11-30T00:07:13.446-05:002019-11-30T00:07:13.446-05:00Back to the Research Co. poll: “While BC Liberal v...<i><br />Back to the Research Co. poll: “While BC Liberal voters from 2017 were decidedly more likely to support first past the post (82%), only 53% (really?) of those who say they voted for the NDP and the Greens favoured proportional representation.” <br /></i><br /><br />I came to a similar conclusion after a riding-by-riding comparison of the BC referendum results with the results of the 2017 election. There was a VERY strong correlation between the percentage of “FPTP” votes in a riding and the percentage of Liberal votes 18 months earlier. The correlation between voting for FPTP and voting Liberal was +0.83; and voting NDP was -0.58; and voting Green was -0.53. <br /><br />The NDP--FPTP correlation varied considerably. Four Surrey ridings with NDP majorities in the provincial election each voted more than 70% for FPTP. Three east Vancouver ridings that voted more than 60% for the NDP gave only 26%, 38% and 39% to FPTP, but a neighbouring riding went 56% for FPTP.<br /><br />Of the riding-to-riding variance in percentage vote for FPTP, 79% could be accounted for by knowing the Liberal vote share and how the non-Liberal vote was split between NDP and Greens. <br /><br />I interpret these results to mean that perceived partisan advantage was a major factor in the referendum. With popular votes between 40% and 50%, the Liberal party has been able to form a majority government 75% of the time under FPTP – this is a no-brainer for Liberal supporters.<br />The NDP supporters were split between those who followed the (new) party line during the referendum and traditionalists who preferred majority government 25% of the time under FPTP. <br /><br />“A simple pro-rep question could have won”? Or do people tell pollsters “it was too complicated” rather than admit “I want a system that gives a permanent advantage to my preferred party”?DaveHutcheonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07635957128147156527noreply@blogger.com