Who might Canada’s MPs be, under the proportional results for the May 2 election in my previous post? What would the House of Commons look like, with 127 Conservative MPs, 97 New Democrats, 56 Liberals, 17 Bloc Québécois, and 11 Greens?
Keep in mind that, under the open-regional-list mixed member model recommended by the Law Commission of Canada, all MPs are personally elected. We still elect local MPs. Voters unrepresented by the local results top them up by electing regional MPs. The total MPs match the vote share. So voters in each region choose the regional MPs. The party nominates a group of regional candidates, and voters choose who they like best. Still, I can look at likely winners, starting with those candidates who got the most votes May 2.
Polls have shown repeatedly that about 90% of Canadians want to see more women elected, so if parties give us that chance, we’ll vote for them. I’ve assumed that below.
(As I noted in my previous post, this simulation is only if people voted as they did on May 2, 2011. In fact, if voters knew every vote would count, more would have voted -- often 6% or so more -- and some would have voted differently.)
Province by province
In Alberta, instead of NDP voters electing only one MP, they would have elected two more MPs from Edmonton and the north half of Alberta. Maybe Ray Martin from Edmonton and Metis lawyer Jennifer Villebrun from Peace River. And two from Calgary and the south half. Maybe City of Calgary employee and environmental activist Paul Vargis, or Calgary Labour Council V-P Collin Anderson or nurses' leader Holly Heffernan, and Lethbridge professor Mark Sandilands.
Instead of Alberta Liberal voters electing no MPs, they would have elected an MP from Edmonton and the north half of Alberta: maybe Mary MacDonald. And another from Calgary and the south half of Alberta: maybe retired police officer Cam Stewart, or lawyer (and past school board chair) Jennifer Pollock, or nursing professor (and founding Co-chair for Equal Voice Alberta South) Janice Kinch.
Alberta Green voters would have elected an MP from Edmonton and the north half of Alberta: maybe Jasper musician Monika Schaefer or their Transport Critic William Munsey east of Edmonton. And another from Calgary and the south half of Alberta: maybe democracy and human rights expert Heather MacIntosh.
Ontario voters would have been fully represented, with 67 local MPs and 39 regional MPs.
Liberal voters in the GTA would have elected three MPs from Peel-Halton: maybe incumbent MPs Bonnie Crombie, Navdeep Bains, and Paul Szabo or Andrew Kania, or former Ontario Minister of Labour Peter Fonseca. And two regional MPs from York-Durham along with John McCallum: maybe incumbent Mark Holland and Karen Mock or Bryon Wilfert or Dan McTeague or Lui Temelkovski. And a seventh MP from the City of Toronto: maybe both Michael Ignatieff and Martha Hall Findlay would have won regional seats?
NDP voters in the GTA would have elected two MPs from Peel-Halton: maybe lawyer Jagmeet Singh and Michelle Bilek or Pat Heroux. And two MPs from York-Durham: maybe Oshawa union president Chris Buckley and Markham auditor Nadine Hawkins.
Green Party GTA voters would have elected an MP from the City of Toronto –- maybe their climate critic Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu or Peace and Security critic Ellen Michelson -- and one from York-Durham -- maybe their poverty elimination critic Rebecca Harrison from Whitby, or their social services critic Vanessa Long from Newmarket, or John Dewar from Georgina.
From Eastern Ontario (Ottawa to Peterborough region), NDP voters would have elected three more MPs: maybe Trevor Haché and Marlene Rivier from Ottawa and Dave Nickle from Peterborough or Lyn Edwards from Lindsay. Liberal voters there would have elected one more MP: maybe Anita Vandenbeld from Ottawa, Betsy McGregor from Peterborough, Kim Rudd from Cobourg, Julie Bourgeois from Casselman, or Christine Tabbert from Pembroke. Green voters there would have elected an MP: maybe their Industry Critic Jen Hunter or Caroline Rioux, both from Ottawa.
From West Central Ontario (Hamilton-Niagara-Waterloo-Simcoe), Liberal voters would have elected three more MPs: maybe previous Kitchener MP Karen Redman, former minister Bob Speller from Norfolk County, and Niagara Falls lawyer Bev Hodgson or former Hamilton councillor Dave Braden or former MP Andrew Telegdi. NDP voters would have elected a fifth MP from the region: maybe Susan Galvao from Cambridge. Green voters would have elected an MP: maybe their finance critic Ard Van Leeuwen from the Orangeville area, or their seniors critic Valerie Powell from Simcoe County.
In Southwestern Ontario, Liberal voters would have elected two MPs: maybe London incumbent Glen Pearson and Grey County’s Kimberley Love, or Western Law School Director of Community Legal Services Doug Ferguson, or Chatham's Matt Daudlin. New Democrat voters would have elected a fourth MP: maybe Ellen Papenburg from North Wellington or Grant Robertson from Bruce County. Green Party voters would have elected an MP: maybe their Science and Technology Critic Emma Hogbin from Owen Sound.
Northern Ontario Liberal voters would have elected two MPs: maybe incumbent Anthony Rota from North Bay and Sudbury lawyer Carol Hartman, or former MPs Ken Boshcoff or Roger Valley.
BC voters would have been fully represented, with 22 MPs from local ridings and 14 more regional MPs.
In the Lower Mainland Liberal voters would have elected two more MPs as well as the two women elected May 2. Maybe incumbents Ujjal Dosanjh and Sukh Dhaliwal or Wendy Yuan or Taleeb Noormohamed. Green voters would have elected two MPs: maybe Deputy Leader Adriane Carr and Douglas Roy or Brennan Wauters or Larry Colero.
In the rest of BC Liberal voters would have elected an MP: maybe Kris Stewart from Kelowna, or Christopher Causton or Lillian Szpak from Victoria. Green voters would have elected another MP as well as Elizabeth May: maybe Greig Crockett from Vernon, Alice Hooper from Kelowna or Dan Bouchard from Penticton.
In Saskatchewan, NDP voters would have elected five MPs rather than none: maybe Nettie Wiebe, past chief of the Federation of Saskatchewan Indian Nations Lawrence Joseph, Regina lawyer Noah Evanchuk, Saskatoon health expert Denise Kouri, and Darien Moore from near Saskatoon or long-time Regina councillor Fred Clipsham?
In Manitoba, New Democrat voters would have elected four MPs rather than two: maybe Rebecca Blaikie and Jim Maloway or Cheryl Osborne. Liberal voters would have elected a second MP: maybe incumbent Anita Neville, or Sydney Garrioch (Grand Chief of MKO), or former MP Raymond Simard?
In Nova Scotia, Green voters would have elected an MP: maybe John Percy of Halifax, Sheila Richardson from Wolfville or Jason Blanch from Amherst.
In New Brunswick, NDP voters would have elected three MPs not just one: maybe Shawna Gagné from Moncton and Rob Moir from St. John. Liberal voters would have elected a second MP: maybe incumbent Jean-Claude D'Amours from northern New Brunswick or Kelly Wilson from west of Saint John or incumbent Brian Murphy from Moncton.
In Newfoundland and Labrador, Conservative voters would have elected a second MP: maybe Fabian Manning.
In P.E.I. Conservative voters would have elected a second MP as well as Gail Shea: maybe Tim Ogilvie, former Veterinary College Dean.
Québec’s diverse regions and voters would have been fully represented by 46 local MPs and 29 regional MPs.
Montréal and Laval Conservative voters would have elected three MPs: maybe Larry Smith, Gérard Labelle, and Svetlana Litvin or Audrey Castonguay. Bloc voters would have elected four MPs not just Maria Mourani: maybe incumbents Gilles Duceppe and Bernard Bigras, and women’s centre coordinator Ginette Beaudry.
From Montérégie, Bloc voters would have elected three MPs: maybe incumbents Luc Malo, Claude DeBellefeuille and Carole Lavallée. Liberal voters would have elected an MP: maybe incumbent Alexandra Mendès. Conservative voters would have elected an MP: maybe Mélisa Leclerc from Granby or lawyer Marc Boudreau.
From Laurentides, Lanaudière, Outaouais and Abitibi, Bloc voters would have elected three MPs: maybe Pierre Paquette from Joliette, Johanne Deschamps from Labelle, and Marc Lemay from Abitibi. Liberal voters would have elected an MP: maybe incumbent Marcel Proulx from Hull, or lawyer Chantal Perreault in Repentigny. Conservative voters would have elected an MP: maybe Lawrence Cannon.
From Estrie-Centre-du-Québec-Mauricie, Bloc voters would have elected three MPs not just two: maybe incumbents Serge Cardin or France Bonsant from Sherbrooke. Conservative voters there would have elected a second MP: maybe Jean-Philippe Bachand, former Mayor of Asbestos, or Marie-Claude Godue of Maskinongé. Liberal voters would have elected an MP: maybe former MP Denis Paradis from Estrie, or former MNA Francine Gaudet from Maskinongé in the Mauricie.
From the region of Québec City and eastern Québec, Bloc voters would have elected three more MPs beyond Jean-François Fortin: maybe incumbents Michel Guimond and Christiane Gagnon from the Quebec City region, and municipal councillor Nathalie Arsenault from L'Islet in Chaudière-Appalaches. Conservative voters would have elected a fifth MP: maybe incumbent Josée Verner from Quebec City. Liberal voters would have elected two MPs: maybe former MNA Nancy Charest from Matane and lawyer Jean Beaupré from Quebec City.
Technical footnote: I've used the names of real local candidates on May 2 because those are the only names at hand.
The Law Commission Report says it is inspired by the systems currently used in Scotland and Wales, which have 16-MP regions (9 local MPs, 7 regional MPs) or 12-MP regions (8 local MPs, 4 regional MPs). With 2/3 local MPs, a 14-MP region would have 9 local MPs and 5 regional MPs.
With the regional MMP model, if a party wants to nominate 50% women regional candidates at its regional nomination convention (as the NDP would do, and others might copy), how does it do this? The "target" local ridings (those the party hopes to pick up) will nominate long before the election. It has two options. First option: hold the regional nominations before half of the local nominations. Those who win regional nominations will have an excellent chance of winning local nominations afterwards. Second option: let most local ridings go first, then let the regional convention rank those candidates into a "zippered" regional list (alternating men and women), and if there are not enough women or cultural minorities, add some "list-only" candidates. That's how the Germans do it, and at every election, a small handful of "list-only" candidates are elected. Since those MPs have no local riding to serve, they will "adopt" a riding where their party elected no local or regional MP, and open their local office there. In New Zealand, when this happens, they call that MP a "buddy MP" for that riding.
Also note: I looked at those candidates who got the most votes May 2, but I also looked at geography. If, for example, voters in Ottawa cast regional votes preferring some Ottawa candidates who got elected to local seats, then after those winning candidates are struck off the regional list, it may well be that the remaining leading candidate will be from Eastern Ontario outside Ottawa.
Friday, May 6, 2011
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
What would those 2011 election results have been if every vote counted equally?
How would the results of the 2011 election play out, by province and nationally, if every vote counted equally? That is, if a model of proportional representation were in place?
All MPs are personally elected
We still elect local MPs. Voters unrepresented by the local results top them up by electing regional MPs. The total MPs match the vote share. Will we voters have no voice in choosing the individual that will represent us regionally? To prevent any concern about that, let’s use the open-regional-list mixed member proportional (MMP) model recommended by the Law Commission of Canada in 2004.
You have two votes. The first is for your local MP, as today. The second is for your party’s regional candidate you like best. This model still leaves almost two-thirds of MPs elected from local ridings. The other one-third are elected from regions averaging 14 MPs (nine local, five regional). If a party’s voters have managed to elect only a few local MPs in that region or none at all, that party gets additional “top-up” seats. The regional candidate with the most votes gets any regional seat needed to top-up the local results to make every vote count equally. (More details below.)
This simulation is only if people voted as they did on May 2, 2011. In fact, if voters knew every vote would count, more would have voted -- often 6% or so more -- and some would have voted differently. We would have had different candidates - more women, and more diversity of all kinds. We could have different parties.
Winner-take-all gave Canada a House of Commons in 2011 of 166 Conservatives, 103 New Democrats, 34 Liberals, 4 Bloc Québécois, and one Green.
The fair result
Instead, the proportional results would have been 127 Conservatives, 97 New Democrats, 56 Liberals, 17 Bloc Québécois, and 11 Greens.
The majority of Canadians voted NDP, Liberal or Green. An NDP-Liberal-Green coalition government would have a clear majority; or so would a Conservative-Liberal coalition government. Either way, that's a strong, stable majority in Parliament elected by a majority of voters, rather than "the tyranny of the minority" when 40% of the voters elect 54% of the MPs with 100% of the power.
The provincial results are even more telling. Our political diversity in each province is fully represented. Voters would be free to vote for their first choice, not having to vote for the "lesser of evils." But even on the votes as cast May 2, this would be the end of the “regional silos” that Canada’s politics have fallen into.
A new politics
An exciting prospect: voters have new power to elect who they like. New voices from new forces in Parliament. No party rolls the dice and wins an artificial majority. Cooperation will have a higher value than vitriolic rhetoric. Instead of having only a local MP -- whom you quite likely didn’t vote for -- you can also go to one of your diverse regional MPs, all of whom had to face the voters. Governments will have to listen to MPs, and MPs will have to really listen to the people. MPs can begin to act as the public servants they are. And all party caucuses will be more diverse.
The models in Ontario and PEI which failed referendums had closed province-wide lists for the additional “top-up” MPPs. This failure was no surprise to those who wrote the Jenkins Commission report in the United Kingdom. Jenkins said top-up MPs locally anchored to small areas are “more easily assimilable into the political culture and indeed the Parliamentary system than would be a flock of unattached birds clouding the sky and wheeling under central party directions.”
It's not just Liberal voters and Green voters who would benefit.
The Conservative caucus would be more representative with nine more MPs from underrepresented areas. Instead of Conservative voters electing no one from the west two-thirds of Québec, they'd have three MPs from Montréal/Laval, one more from the South Shore (Montérégie), and one more from the North Shore and western Québec where Lawrence Cannon lost his seat. And they'd have two more from central and eastern Quebec, and second MPs from both Newfoundland and PEI.
NDP voters in areas where they elected too few or no MPs would have elected 21 more MPs: five in Saskatchewan, four more in Alberta, two more in Manitoba, three more in Eastern Ontario, three more in the GTA, one more in each of West Central Ontario and Southwest Ontario, and two more in New Brunswick.
Liberal voters unrepresented in Western Canada, Ontario outside Toronto, and Quebec outside Montreal would have elected 24 more MPs. And Green voters everywhere would have elected 10 more MPs.
Accountable MPs
In this model, all MPs are locally accountable. Generally each group of three local ridings becomes two larger ones. Voters can go to their local MP or one of their competing diverse regional MPs (about five regional MPs). Voters for all parties have representation in their region.
For a similar analysis, but with smaller regions, see this post.
Province by province
Alberta’s diverse voters would be fully represented.
Instead of Alberta Liberal voters electing no MPs, they would have elected an MP from Edmonton and the north half of Alberta, and another from Calgary and the south half of Alberta. So would Alberta Green voters. Instead of Alberta NDP voters electing only one MP, they would have elected two more MPs from Edmonton and the north half of Alberta, and two from Calgary and the south half. Alberta Conservative voters would have elected 19 MPs rather than 27.
Ontario’s diverse regions and voters would be fully represented. They would have elected 67 local MPs and 39 regional MPs.
GTA voters would, rather than electing only seven Liberal MPs, have elected 13 Liberal MPs – three from Peel-Halton, three from York-Durham, and seven from the City of Toronto. They would have elected 11 New Democrat MPs rather than only eight – two from Peel-Halton, two from York-Durham, and seven from the City of Toronto. They would have elected two Green Party MPs -- one from the City of Toronto, one from York-Durham. They would have elected 20 Conservative MPs rather than 31.
For the 17 MPs of Eastern Ontario (Ottawa to Peterborough), instead of 13 Conservatives, one New Democrat, and three Liberals, voters would have elected eight Conservatives, four New Democrats, four Liberals, and one Green.
For the 20 MPs of West Central Ontario (Hamilton-Niagara-Waterloo-Simcoe), instead of 15 Conservatives, four New Democrats, and one Liberal, voters would have elected 10 Conservatives, five New Democrats, four Liberals, and one Green.
In Southwestern Ontario (London-Windsor-Owen Sound), instead of 11 Conservative MPs and three New Democrats, voters would have elected seven Conservatives, four New Democrats, two Liberals, and one Green.
In Northern Ontario, instead of three Conservative MPs and six New Democrats, voters would have elected two Liberals along with three Conservatives and four New Democrats.
BC voters would have been fully represented, with 23 MPs from local ridings and 13 more regional MPs.
In the Lower Mainland Liberal voters would have elected four MPs rather than two, Green voters would have elected an MP, Conservative voters would have elected ten MPs rather than 12, and NDP voters would have elected six MPs rather than seven. Similarly, in the rest of BC Liberal voters would have elected one MP rather than none, Green voters would have elected another MP, while Conservative voters would have elected seven MPs rather than nine.
In Saskatchewan, NDP voters would have elected five MPs rather than none, while Conservative voters would have elected eight MPs not 13.
In Manitoba, New Democrat voters would have elected four MPs rather than two, and Liberal voters would have elected two MPs not just one, while Conservative voters would have elected three fewer.
In summary, across the West that would mean 25 NDP MPs rather than 15, ten Liberal MPs not just four, and five Green MPs not just one.
In Nova Scotia, Green voters would have elected an MP, while Liberal voters would have elected three not four.
In New Brunswick, NDP voters would have elected three MPs not just one, and Liberal voters would have elected two MPs not just one, while Conservative voters would have elected five MPs not eight.
In Newfoundland and Labrador, Conservative voters would have elected a second MP, while Liberal voters would have elected three MPs not four.
In P.E.I. Conservative voters would have elected a second MP, while Liberal voters would have elected two MPs not three.
Québec’s diverse regions and voters would have been fully represented.
For the 21 MPs from Montréal and Laval, voters would have elected four Bloc MPs not just one, three Conservative MPs, eight NDP MPs not 13, and six Liberal MPs not seven.
For the 12 MPs from Montérégie, voters would have elected three Bloc MPs, one Liberal and one Conservative. NDP voters would have elected the seven local MPs, not all 12.
For the 14 MPs from Laurentides, Lanaudière, Outaouais and Abitibi, voters would have elected three Bloc MPs, one Liberal and one Conservative. NDP voters would have elected nine MPs, but not all 14.
For the 10 MPs from Estrie-Centre-du-Québec-Mauricie, voters would have elected three Bloc MPs not just two, two Conservatives not just one, and one Liberal. NDP voters would have elected four MPs not seven.
For the 18 MPs from the region of Québec City and eastern Québec, voters would have elected four Bloc MPs not just one, five Conservatives rather than four, and two Liberals. NDP voters would have elected seven MPs not 13.
I’ve posted an example of who might have been elected.
Statistical notes:
The Law Commission of Canada recommended a Mixed Member Proportional model (MMP) with open regional lists, as did the Jenkins Commission in the UK. In Quebec it is called the mixed compensatory system.
MMP is used in Scotland, Wales, New Zealand and Germany. This model was described in more detail by Prof. Henry Milner at an electoral reform conference Feb. 21, 2009. A similar "open-list" model is used in the German province of Bavaria and was proposed by Scotland's Arbuthnott Commission in 2006.
By having only 36% of MPs elected regionally, the results are not perfectly proportional, but very close. If we had used province-wide totals with perfect proportionality the results would have been: 126 Conservative, 94 New Democrats, 59 Liberals, 18 Bloc, and 11 Greens. In this simulation, after adjustments due to having 64% local seats, the results are: 127 Conservatives, 97 New Democrats, 56 Liberals, 17 Bloc, and 11 Greens. The effect on the balance of parties in the House is the same. In return for slight deviations from perfect proportionality, all MPs are “locally anchored” and accountable. A very good trade-off.
If there was a legal threshold of 5% in each province, the Greens would have no MPs from Ontario and Nova Scotia, getting only 5 MPs not 10. (However, if every vote counted, there would be no need for negative "strategic voting," so I expect the Greens would have gotten more than 5% there.)
All MPs are personally elected
We still elect local MPs. Voters unrepresented by the local results top them up by electing regional MPs. The total MPs match the vote share. Will we voters have no voice in choosing the individual that will represent us regionally? To prevent any concern about that, let’s use the open-regional-list mixed member proportional (MMP) model recommended by the Law Commission of Canada in 2004.
You have two votes. The first is for your local MP, as today. The second is for your party’s regional candidate you like best. This model still leaves almost two-thirds of MPs elected from local ridings. The other one-third are elected from regions averaging 14 MPs (nine local, five regional). If a party’s voters have managed to elect only a few local MPs in that region or none at all, that party gets additional “top-up” seats. The regional candidate with the most votes gets any regional seat needed to top-up the local results to make every vote count equally. (More details below.)
This simulation is only if people voted as they did on May 2, 2011. In fact, if voters knew every vote would count, more would have voted -- often 6% or so more -- and some would have voted differently. We would have had different candidates - more women, and more diversity of all kinds. We could have different parties.
Winner-take-all gave Canada a House of Commons in 2011 of 166 Conservatives, 103 New Democrats, 34 Liberals, 4 Bloc Québécois, and one Green.
The fair result
Instead, the proportional results would have been 127 Conservatives, 97 New Democrats, 56 Liberals, 17 Bloc Québécois, and 11 Greens.
The majority of Canadians voted NDP, Liberal or Green. An NDP-Liberal-Green coalition government would have a clear majority; or so would a Conservative-Liberal coalition government. Either way, that's a strong, stable majority in Parliament elected by a majority of voters, rather than "the tyranny of the minority" when 40% of the voters elect 54% of the MPs with 100% of the power.
The provincial results are even more telling. Our political diversity in each province is fully represented. Voters would be free to vote for their first choice, not having to vote for the "lesser of evils." But even on the votes as cast May 2, this would be the end of the “regional silos” that Canada’s politics have fallen into.
A new politics
An exciting prospect: voters have new power to elect who they like. New voices from new forces in Parliament. No party rolls the dice and wins an artificial majority. Cooperation will have a higher value than vitriolic rhetoric. Instead of having only a local MP -- whom you quite likely didn’t vote for -- you can also go to one of your diverse regional MPs, all of whom had to face the voters. Governments will have to listen to MPs, and MPs will have to really listen to the people. MPs can begin to act as the public servants they are. And all party caucuses will be more diverse.
The models in Ontario and PEI which failed referendums had closed province-wide lists for the additional “top-up” MPPs. This failure was no surprise to those who wrote the Jenkins Commission report in the United Kingdom. Jenkins said top-up MPs locally anchored to small areas are “more easily assimilable into the political culture and indeed the Parliamentary system than would be a flock of unattached birds clouding the sky and wheeling under central party directions.”
It's not just Liberal voters and Green voters who would benefit.
The Conservative caucus would be more representative with nine more MPs from underrepresented areas. Instead of Conservative voters electing no one from the west two-thirds of Québec, they'd have three MPs from Montréal/Laval, one more from the South Shore (Montérégie), and one more from the North Shore and western Québec where Lawrence Cannon lost his seat. And they'd have two more from central and eastern Quebec, and second MPs from both Newfoundland and PEI.
NDP voters in areas where they elected too few or no MPs would have elected 21 more MPs: five in Saskatchewan, four more in Alberta, two more in Manitoba, three more in Eastern Ontario, three more in the GTA, one more in each of West Central Ontario and Southwest Ontario, and two more in New Brunswick.
Liberal voters unrepresented in Western Canada, Ontario outside Toronto, and Quebec outside Montreal would have elected 24 more MPs. And Green voters everywhere would have elected 10 more MPs.
Accountable MPs
In this model, all MPs are locally accountable. Generally each group of three local ridings becomes two larger ones. Voters can go to their local MP or one of their competing diverse regional MPs (about five regional MPs). Voters for all parties have representation in their region.
For a similar analysis, but with smaller regions, see this post.
Province by province
Alberta’s diverse voters would be fully represented.
Instead of Alberta Liberal voters electing no MPs, they would have elected an MP from Edmonton and the north half of Alberta, and another from Calgary and the south half of Alberta. So would Alberta Green voters. Instead of Alberta NDP voters electing only one MP, they would have elected two more MPs from Edmonton and the north half of Alberta, and two from Calgary and the south half. Alberta Conservative voters would have elected 19 MPs rather than 27.
Ontario’s diverse regions and voters would be fully represented. They would have elected 67 local MPs and 39 regional MPs.
GTA voters would, rather than electing only seven Liberal MPs, have elected 13 Liberal MPs – three from Peel-Halton, three from York-Durham, and seven from the City of Toronto. They would have elected 11 New Democrat MPs rather than only eight – two from Peel-Halton, two from York-Durham, and seven from the City of Toronto. They would have elected two Green Party MPs -- one from the City of Toronto, one from York-Durham. They would have elected 20 Conservative MPs rather than 31.
For the 17 MPs of Eastern Ontario (Ottawa to Peterborough), instead of 13 Conservatives, one New Democrat, and three Liberals, voters would have elected eight Conservatives, four New Democrats, four Liberals, and one Green.
For the 20 MPs of West Central Ontario (Hamilton-Niagara-Waterloo-Simcoe), instead of 15 Conservatives, four New Democrats, and one Liberal, voters would have elected 10 Conservatives, five New Democrats, four Liberals, and one Green.
In Southwestern Ontario (London-Windsor-Owen Sound), instead of 11 Conservative MPs and three New Democrats, voters would have elected seven Conservatives, four New Democrats, two Liberals, and one Green.
In Northern Ontario, instead of three Conservative MPs and six New Democrats, voters would have elected two Liberals along with three Conservatives and four New Democrats.
BC voters would have been fully represented, with 23 MPs from local ridings and 13 more regional MPs.
In the Lower Mainland Liberal voters would have elected four MPs rather than two, Green voters would have elected an MP, Conservative voters would have elected ten MPs rather than 12, and NDP voters would have elected six MPs rather than seven. Similarly, in the rest of BC Liberal voters would have elected one MP rather than none, Green voters would have elected another MP, while Conservative voters would have elected seven MPs rather than nine.
In Saskatchewan, NDP voters would have elected five MPs rather than none, while Conservative voters would have elected eight MPs not 13.
In Manitoba, New Democrat voters would have elected four MPs rather than two, and Liberal voters would have elected two MPs not just one, while Conservative voters would have elected three fewer.
In summary, across the West that would mean 25 NDP MPs rather than 15, ten Liberal MPs not just four, and five Green MPs not just one.
In Nova Scotia, Green voters would have elected an MP, while Liberal voters would have elected three not four.
In New Brunswick, NDP voters would have elected three MPs not just one, and Liberal voters would have elected two MPs not just one, while Conservative voters would have elected five MPs not eight.
In Newfoundland and Labrador, Conservative voters would have elected a second MP, while Liberal voters would have elected three MPs not four.
In P.E.I. Conservative voters would have elected a second MP, while Liberal voters would have elected two MPs not three.
Québec’s diverse regions and voters would have been fully represented.
For the 21 MPs from Montréal and Laval, voters would have elected four Bloc MPs not just one, three Conservative MPs, eight NDP MPs not 13, and six Liberal MPs not seven.
For the 12 MPs from Montérégie, voters would have elected three Bloc MPs, one Liberal and one Conservative. NDP voters would have elected the seven local MPs, not all 12.
For the 14 MPs from Laurentides, Lanaudière, Outaouais and Abitibi, voters would have elected three Bloc MPs, one Liberal and one Conservative. NDP voters would have elected nine MPs, but not all 14.
For the 10 MPs from Estrie-Centre-du-Québec-Mauricie, voters would have elected three Bloc MPs not just two, two Conservatives not just one, and one Liberal. NDP voters would have elected four MPs not seven.
For the 18 MPs from the region of Québec City and eastern Québec, voters would have elected four Bloc MPs not just one, five Conservatives rather than four, and two Liberals. NDP voters would have elected seven MPs not 13.
I’ve posted an example of who might have been elected.
Statistical notes:
The Law Commission of Canada recommended a Mixed Member Proportional model (MMP) with open regional lists, as did the Jenkins Commission in the UK. In Quebec it is called the mixed compensatory system.
MMP is used in Scotland, Wales, New Zealand and Germany. This model was described in more detail by Prof. Henry Milner at an electoral reform conference Feb. 21, 2009. A similar "open-list" model is used in the German province of Bavaria and was proposed by Scotland's Arbuthnott Commission in 2006.
By having only 36% of MPs elected regionally, the results are not perfectly proportional, but very close. If we had used province-wide totals with perfect proportionality the results would have been: 126 Conservative, 94 New Democrats, 59 Liberals, 18 Bloc, and 11 Greens. In this simulation, after adjustments due to having 64% local seats, the results are: 127 Conservatives, 97 New Democrats, 56 Liberals, 17 Bloc, and 11 Greens. The effect on the balance of parties in the House is the same. In return for slight deviations from perfect proportionality, all MPs are “locally anchored” and accountable. A very good trade-off.
If there was a legal threshold of 5% in each province, the Greens would have no MPs from Ontario and Nova Scotia, getting only 5 MPs not 10. (However, if every vote counted, there would be no need for negative "strategic voting," so I expect the Greens would have gotten more than 5% there.)
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