If every vote in Ontario had counted in 2018, what would that look like?
No one man would have a one-party government elected
by only 40.5% of the votes.
On the votes cast in 2018, with
proportional representation our Ontario legislature should have 51 PC MPPs, 42 New Democrats, 25 Liberals, and 6 Greens.
Rural and urban voters in every
region of Ontario would have effective votes and fair representation in both government and opposition.
That’s a basic principle of proportional representation.
For example, let’s see what would
happen using the mixed-member proportional system with
open lists in ten regions. The regions would have an average of 12 MPPs each
(seven local MPPs, five regional MPPs elected to top-up seats).
Did your vote count?
In
2018, 52% of Ontario votes were not effective to help elect an MPP, as the
First-Past-The-Post system threw them in the trash.
And
who can say what a real democratic voting system would have given Ontario? This
year’s 58% turnout was the highest in five Ontario elections. But last year New
Zealand, where every vote counts, saw a 79% turnout elect a new government with
three-party support.
The open-list MMP system: Every MPP represents actual
voters and real communities
We’re
not talking about a model with candidates appointed by central parties. We’re
talking about the mixed
member system designed by the Law
Commission of Canada and endorsed by the Ontario NDP Convention in 2014, where
every MPP represents actual voters and real communities. The majority of
MPPs will be elected by local ridings as we do today, preserving the
traditional link between voter and MPP. The other 39% are elected as regional
MPPs, topping-up the numbers of MPPs from your local region so the total is
proportional to the votes for each party.
You have two votes. One is for your local MPP.
The second helps elect regional MPs, topping-up the numbers of MPs from
your local region so the total is proportional to the votes for each party. The
ballot would look like this ballot that PEI voters chose in their 2016 plebiscite.
Unlike
the closed-list MMP model Ontario voters did not support in 2007, you can cast
a personal vote for a candidate within the regional list. This is commonly
called “open list.” All MPPs have faced the voters. No one is guaranteed a
seat. The region is small enough that the regional
MPPs are accountable.
How would regional MPs serve
residents?
Ontario’s Rural-Urban Divide
Our winner-take-all voting system exaggerates Ontario’s regional differences,
especially the rural-urban divide.
Ontario’s
suburban, small-town and rural voters somehow combined to make Doug Ford an
all-powerful premier. But his majority in this year’s Ontario election came
from our winner-take all voting system, not from voters. It came from the 31-MPP
bonus that our skewed system foisted on those voters by throwing 51% of their
ballots in the trash.
Take
the 43 ridings in Toronto’s suburbs and the GTA. They elect more than one-third
of Ontario’s MPPs. Voters for Doug Ford’s PCs swept them, electing all but
seven. But only 45% of those voters voted PC. A proportional system would have let
voters elect 12 New Democrats, not just six; 10 Liberals, not just one; and a
Green Party MPP. Instead of 36 PC MPPs, they would have had 20.
What’s
more, the PC heartland, the blue belt running from Cornwall to Barrie to
Chatham, is not nearly as blue as it looks. Those 37 ridings elected 33 PC
MPPs, all but four, yet they voted only 48% PC. A proportional system would
have let those voters elect 11 NDP MPPs, not just three; five Liberals rather
than zero; and three Greens, not just one, leaving the PCs with 18.
Conversely,
Ontario’s urban cores (electing 12 MPPs in Toronto, nine in Hamilton-Niagara, five
in Ottawa, and three each in London and Windsor) voted 29% PC but elected only
four MPPs to Doug Ford’s caucus. A proportional system would have added five
more. Picture the governing caucus with two more MPPs from Central Toronto
(south of the 401, between Scarborough and Etobicoke) like Deputy Mayor Denzil
Minnan-Wong, Andrew Kirsch, Gillian Smith, Jon Kieran or Mark DeMontis. With former
MP Susan Truppe from London, an MPP like April Jeffs from Niagara Region and an
MPP like Chris Lewis from Windsor-Essex.
The
Official Opposition would also be more representative, with MPPs like Sean
Conway from Peterborough, Joanne Belanger from Belleville, Bonnie Jean-Louis
and Chandra Pasma from the Ottawa area, Sarnia’s Kathy Alexander, Bruce County’s
Jan Johnstone, Barrie’s Pekka Reinio, Orillia’s Elizabeth Van Houtte, Brantford’s
Alex Felsky, Whitby’s Niki Lundquist, Newmarket‘s Melissa Williams, and Georgina’s
Dave Szollosy.
Liberal voters would
be fairly represented, with 25 MPPs holding the balance of power, as would
Green voters with six MPPs. See details below.
Competing MPPs:
You
have a local MPP who will champion your community, and about five competing
regional MPPs, normally including one whose views best reflect your values,
someone you helped elect in your local district or local region
York—Durham
Voters electing 15 MPPs from York
Region and Durham Region would, instead of electing 14 PCs and only one NDP
member, have also elected three New Democrat regional MPPs (maybe Monique Hughes and Niki Lundquist, Melissa Williams or Dave Szollosy or Nerissa
Cariño or Joel Usher), and three Liberal regional MPPs
(maybe Steven Del Duca, Joe Dickson and Helena Jaczek), along with eight PCs.
Peel—Halton
Voters electing 15 MPPs from Peel
and Halton Regions would, instead of electing only three NDP members and 12
PCs, have elected four Regional Liberal MPPs (maybe Charles Sousa, Kevin Flynn,
Indira Naidoo-Harris and Dipika Damerla), one Green (maybe Eleanor Hayward),
and one more New Democrat (maybe Nikki Clarke or Jagroop Singh), along with six Progressive
Conservatives.
City of Toronto
Voters electing 12 MPPs from Northern
Toronto—Etobicoke-York would, instead of electing only two Liberal MPPs, three
NDP MPPs, and seven PCs, have elected three Liberals and four New Democrats,
along with five Progressive Conservatives. Maybe Liberal Mike Colle and New Democrat
Phil Trotter would have been elected as regional MPPs.
Voters electing 13 MPPs from Central
Toronto-Scarborough would, instead of electing only one Liberal, have elected two
Liberal regional MPPs (maybe Jess Spindler and Arthur Potts), along with six
New Democrats and four PCs.
Suppose
Toronto is three regions, including the eight MPPs from Downtown Toronto, where
the NDP swept all eight seats. The PCs deserved to elect two regional MPPs
downtown, like Andrew Kirsch and
Gillian Smith.
Central East (Kingston—Peterborough)
Voters electing nine MPPs from
Central East Ontario would, instead of electing one New Democrat and eight PCs,
have elected a Liberal regional MPP (maybe Jeff Leal or Sophie Kiwala), a Green
regional MPP (maybe Robert Kiley, shadow cabinet critic for Citizenship and Immigration), along with another New Democrat (maybe Peterborough’s
Sean Conway) and five local PC MPPs.
Eastern Ontario (Ottawa—Cornwall)
Voters electing ten MPPs from Eastern Ontario would, instead of electing only one New Democrat, have
elected two regional NDP MPPs (maybe Ottawa’s Chandra Pasma and Bonnie Jean-Louis or John Hansen) along
with three Liberals and four PCs.
Central West (Simcoe—Bruce—Wellington)
Voters electing ten MPPs from
Central West Ontario would, instead of electing no New Democrats and no
Liberals, have elected three regional New Democrat MPPs (maybe Barrie’s Pekka
Reinio, Bruce County's Jan Johnstone, and Orillia’s Elizabeth Van
Houtte) and a Liberal (maybe Gerry Marshall), along with Green party leader Mike Schreiner and
five local PC MPPs.
Central South (Hamilton—Waterloo—Niagara—Brantford)
Voters electing 16 MPPs from
Central South Ontario would, instead of electing no Liberal or Green MPP, have
elected two regional Liberal MPPs (maybe Jim Bradley and Kathryn McGarry) and a
Green regional MPP (maybe Kitchener’s Stacey Danckert, finance critic, or David Weber) along with seven New Democrat MPPs and six PCs.
Southwest (London—Windsor)
Voters electing 12 MPPs from
Southwest Ontario would, instead of electing no Liberal or Green MPP, have
elected a regional Liberal MPP (maybe London’s Kate Graham) and a Green (maybe
Perth—Wellington’s Lisa Olsen or London’s Carol Dyck).
Northern Ontario
Voters electing 12 MPPs from
Northern Ontario would, instead of electing only one Liberal MPP and three PCs,
have elected a regional Liberal MPP (maybe Glenn Thibeault from Sudbury) and a regional PC MPP (maybe Yvan Genier from
Timmins) along with six
New Democrat MPPs.
A projection
This projection assumes voters
voted as they did in 2018. But, as Prof. Dennis
Pilon says: "Now keep in mind that, when you change the
voting system, you also change the incentives that affect the kinds of
decisions that voters might make. For instance, we know that, when every vote
counts, voters won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or casting a
strategic vote. Thus, we should expect that support for different parties might
change."
Let’s try using the Ontario
Liberal Party’s nine new regions, and assume those elected as regional MPPs were
the party’s best runners-up in the last election.
Central
North
Voters electing 16
MPPs from York Region, and Simcoe-Muskoka-Dufferin would, instead of electing only
16 PCs, have elected three New Democrats, three Liberals and a Green. The NDP’s
would have been Barrie’s Pekka Reinio and Dan Jessen, and Orillia’s Elizabeth
Van Houtte; the Liberals’ Vaughan’s Steven Del Duca, Richmond Hill’s Reza
Moridi, and Markham’s Helena Jaczek; and Green Matt Richter, along with nine
local PCs.
Central
West
Voters electing 15 MPPs from
Peel and Halton Regions would, instead of electing only three NDP members and
12 PCs, have elected four Regional Liberal MPPs (Charles Sousa, Kevin Flynn,
Indira Naidoo-Harris and Dipika Damerla), and one more New Democrat (Jagroop
Singh), along with seven Progressive Conservatives.
City
of Toronto
Voters electing 11 MPPs from
Etobicoke/Downtown/East York would, instead of electing only eight NDP MPPs and
three PCs, have elected three Liberals: Yvan Baker, Jess Spindler and Arthur
Potts.
Voters electing 14 MPPs from
York/North York/Scarborough would, instead of electing only three Liberals and
three NDP, have elected a fourth Liberal (Mike Colle) and a fourth New Democrat
(Felicia Samuel), along with six PCs.
Central
East
Voters electing ten MPPs
from Central East Ontario would, instead of electing one New Democrat and nine
PCs, have elected two Liberal regional MPPs (Ajax’s Joe Dickson and
Peterborough’s Jeff Leal, along with two more New Democrats (Whitby’s Niki
Lundquist and Peterborough’s Sean Conway) and five local PC MPPs.
East
Voters electing 14 MPPs from
East Ontario would, instead of electing only three Liberals and two New
Democrats, have elected two regional NDP MPPs (Ottawa’s Chandra Pasma and Perth’s
Ramsay Hart) and another Liberal (Ottawa’s Yasir Nakvi) along with six PCs.
Central
South
Voters electing 17 MPPs from
Central South Ontario would, instead of electing no Liberal, have elected three
regional Liberal MPPs (St. Catharines’ Jim Bradley, Cambridge’s Kathryn McGarry
and Kitchener’s Daiene Vernile) along with seven New Democrat MPPs,
six PCs and Mike Schreiner.
Southwest
Voters electing 15 MPPs from
Southwest Ontario would, instead of electing no Liberal or Green MPP, have
elected a regional Liberal MPP (London’s Kate Graham) and a Green (Grey County’s
Don Marshall).
Northern
Ontario
Voters electing 12 MPPs from
Northern Ontario would, instead of electing only one Liberal MPP and three PCs,
have elected a regional Liberal MPP (Thunder Bay’s Bill Mauro) and a regional
PC MPP (Timmins’ Yvan Genier) along with six NDP MPPs.
What sort of government would
Ontario have had?
Cooperation
between parties representing a majority can get a lot of good things done. This
is the norm in most western democracies.
The
Ontario government might have been:
1.
A minority PC government with a supply-and-confidence agreement (like the Accord
in Ontario in 1985) with the Liberals, ensuring a stable government for four
years (giving the Liberals time to rebuild). Possible but unlikely.
2.
A minority NDP government with a supply-and-confidence agreement (like the
Accord in Ontario in 1985) with the Liberals, ensuring a stable government for
four years (giving the Liberals time to rebuild). More likely than option 1.
3.
A coalition government between the NDP and the Liberals. Less likely in today’s
climate, more likely under PR when the public is more used to cooperation
between parties representing a majority.
4.
A coalition government between the PCs and the Liberals. Possible but less
likely, even after the public is more used to cooperation between parties
representing a majority.
5.
A minority government with no agreement or Accord, relying on support from one
or more other parties issue by issue. Possible but less stable (although Bill
Davis made it work for four years from 1977 to 1981). Today, it would be very
unstable because the minority government would be looking for an excuse to roll
the dice and try for an accidental majority. Under PR, when an accidental false
majority would not be possible, everyone might want to make it work (as
happened in Scotland for four years from 2007 to 2011).
Ontario NDP
Policy
BE IT RESOLVED THAT the Ontario NDP
reaffirms its endorsement of a system of proportional representation for
Ontario.
BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED THAT the
proposed system of voting incorporate the following characteristics:
a) preservation of the traditional link
between voter and MPP by keeping constituency seats;
b) two votes: one for a local
constituency candidate and one for a Party's list of candidates;
c) Party lists to be developed and
applied at a regional rather than provincial level;
d) restoration and enhancement of
democracy through the provision of additional seats in the Legislature;
e) additional seats to be filled from
Party Lists so as to offset disproportionality between the constituency
elections and the popular Party vote.
f) voters to have the option of either
endorsing the party’s regional list, or casting a personal vote for a candidate
within the regional list.
Technical
Notes:
1. Because
of rounding errors when Ontario is divided into nine or ten regions, the first projection above happens to give the PCs a bonus of 1 and the NDP a bonus of 2, at the cost of
the Liberals (2) and the Greens (1). The Liberal map happens to give the PCs a bonus of 2 and the Liberals a bonus of 1, at the cost of the Greens (3). The overall results are still close to
proportionality.
I have also done a simulation with the Green vote doubling. Once every
vote counts, with no more strategic voting, that’s likely what would happen. That
would mean Green voters would have cast 8.9% of the votes, and should elect 11
MPPs. Sure enough, my simulation shows Green voters electing a regional MPP in
each of the 10 regions. In Central West (Simcoe-Bruce-Wellington) they would
elect Mike Schreiner and a second MPP.
2. The
calculation for any PR system has to choose a rounding method, to round
fractions up and down. I have used the “largest remainder” calculation, which
Germany used until recently, because it is the simplest and most transparent.
In a 10-MPP region, if Party A deserves 3.2 MPPs, Party B deserves 3.1, Party C
deserves 2.3, and Party D deserves 1.4, which party gets the tenth seat? Party
D has a remainder of 0.4, the largest remainder. In a region where one party
wins a bonus (“overhang”), I allocate the remaining seats among the remaining
parties by the same calculation.
The
purpose of the compensatory regional seats is to correct disproportional local
results, not to provide a parallel system of getting elected. The Law
Commission recommended that the right to nominate candidates for regional
top-up seats should be limited to those parties which have candidates standing
for election in at least one-third of the ridings within the top-up region.
Jenkins recommended 50%. This prevents a possible distortion of the system by
parties pretending to split into twin decoy parties for the regional seats, the
trick which Berlusconi invented to sabotage Italy’s voting system.
(Note: this post was updated Dec. 1, 2019.)