Where will British Columbia's six new seats be?

The six new seats will be four in the Lower Mainland, one on Vancouver Island, and one in the Interior, using BC Stats projections for 2011 populations.

The North and the Kootenays can, in my opinion, remain unchanged. Growth in Kelowna (which is now too big for a single riding) and Kamloops requires a new riding. In fact, the new Interior riding can even lead to a minor improvement in the BC Southern Interior riding, moving Princeton and Keremeos into Okanagan South-Central.

So here's my prediction of what the Boundaries Commission is likely to do.

Coast-North Shore-Burnaby-New West-Maple Ridge gets 8 ridings (now 6.7). Vancouver-Richmond-South Delta gets 8 (now 7). Surrey/White Rock-North Delta gets 5 (now 4). Langley-Abbotsford-Mission gets 3 (now 2.3). Chilliwack-Fraser Cascade is still one riding, shaving off the 14% of it that was outside the Lower Mainland. That brings the Lower Mainland up to 25 seats from 21, four new ones.

Details, with quotients based on BC Stats 2011 estimates (109,145):

Coast Garibaldi-West Vancouver 1.068
North Vancouver--West Vancouver 1.067
Burnaby--North Vancouver 1.067 (57% of it is in Burnaby)
Burnaby Centre 1.065
New Westminster--Burnaby 1.066
Coquitlam--Port Moody 0.98
Coquitlam Centre - Port Coquitlam 0.982
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows-Port Coquitlam 0.978 (taking about 10,500 from Port Coquitlam.)
Vancouver: five ridings @ 1.040
Vancouver South - Richmond North 1.040 (taking about 16,500 from Richmond)
Richmond West 1.05
Richmond East--South Delta 1.049
Newton--North Delta 1.00
Surrey/White Rock: four more ridings @ 1.00
Langley 0.976
Abbotsford West--Aldergrove 0.971
Abbotsford East--Mission 0.971
Chilliwack - Fraser Cascade 0.967

The Interior gains a seat due to growth in Kelowna and Kamloops:
Skeena - Bulkley Valley 0.938 (unchanged)
Peace River--Prince George 0.999 (unchanged except tweak the splitting of Prince George)
Prince George--Cariboo 0.999 (unchanged)
Kamloops 0.949 (City, First Nation, Areas J & P)
Shuswap-Thompson-Cariboo 0.984 (includes Merrit, Lillooet, Enderby, Armstrong, Spallumcheen)
Okanagan North--Lake Country--North Kelowna 0.939
Kelowna 0.977 (all of Kelowna City but 15,000 people)
Okanagan South-Central 1.003
Southern Interior 0.909 (unchanged except loses Princeton and Keremeos to Okanagan South-Central)
Kootenay-Columbia 0.819 (unchanged).

And Vancouver Island gets a new riding:
Vancouver Island North 1.026 (unchanged except loses 10,365 people to Nanaimo-Alberni)
Nanaimo--Alberni--Cumberland 0.976 (includes north 20% of Nanaimo City)
Nanaimo--Ladysmith 0.976
Cowichan--Langford 1.007 (includes 45,000 people from Capital District)
Capital District (rest): 3 ridings @ 1.01

Note that every riding is within a 10% deviation except the remote riding of Kootenay-Columbia which is 18.1% below quotient, well within the 25% limit.