Saturday, January 21, 2012

Where will British Columbia's six new seats be?

The six new seats will be four in the Lower Mainland, one on Vancouver Island, and one in the Interior, using the 2011 census figures.

Growth in Kelowna (now too big for a single riding), Kamloops, etc. requires a new Interior riding. Four present Interior ridings are all well over quotient: Kelowna - Lake Country is 28.6%, Okanagan - Shuswap is 15.6% over, Kamloops - Thompson - Cariboo is 14.8% over, and Okanagan - Coquihalla is 8.7% over.

The North and the Kootenays can, in my opinion, remain unchanged. The present three Northern ridings do not, as a whole, over-represent the North. The present Kootenay--Columbia riding is almost 16% below quotient, but it can remain without causing other areas to be under-represented, and with six new ridings for BC, it would be shocking if the Kootenays had to lose representation.

So here's my prediction of what the Boundaries Commission is likely to do.

Details, referring to quotients from the census (104,763):
The Lower Mainland, including Sunshine Coast and the Squamish area, has 2,637,911 residents, 25.1798 quotients, 25 ridings. Today it has 21, one of which includes Powell River, and 14% of Chiliwack—Fraser Canyon is in the Interior.

Coast-North Shore (not including Powell River or Whistler):
WEST VANCOUVER--NORTH VANCOUVER--SUNSHINE COAST (including Squamish) 10.4% over quotient.
NORTH VANCOUVER 10.98% above quotient.

Vancouver-Richmond-South Delta gets 8 (now 7).
VANCOUVER EAST 5.09% over quotient, unchanged The other ridings would be about 0.78% over quotient.
VANCOUVER CENTRE loses 31,692 residents to a new VANCOUVER FAIRVIEW.
VANCOUVER KINGSWAY gains 38,236 from Vancouver South and loses 57,597 to VANCOUVER FAIRVIEW.
VANCOUVER SOUTH-RICHMOND NORTH gains 20,133 from Richmond.
RICHMOND STEVENSON (the remaining Richmond riding) might be renamed.
DELTA - RICHMOND EAST largely unchanged, move about 5,000 residents of the Hamilton neighborhood to New Westminster, about 1.57% over quotient.

Burnaby-New West-Maple Ridge gets 6 ridings (now 4.7).
BURNABY NORTH about 3.49% below quotient.
BURNABY SOUTH about 3.49% below quotient.
NEW WESTMINSTER--BURQUITLAM about 3.61% below quotient.
COQUITLAM--PORT MOODY about 3.43% below quotient.
COQUITLAM CENTRE—PORT COQUITLAM about 3.22% below quotient.
MAPLE RIDGE—PITT MEADOWS—PORT COQUITLAM (taking about 7,000 from Port Coquitlam) about 3.58% below quotient.
Surrey/White Rock-North Delta gets 5 (now 4).
The new SURREY FLEETWOOD riding might get 51,800 from Fleetwood, 19,600 from Newton, 19,400 from Cloverdale, and 17,600 from North Surrey.
The four present ridings would then be about 3.4% over quotient:

Langley-Abbotsford-Mission gets 3 (now 2.3).
LANGLEY loses about 28,000 Aldergrove residents, 3.28% under quotient.
ABBOTSFORD WEST—ALDERGROVE about 3.33% under quotient.
ABBOTSFORD EAST—MISSION about 3.63% under quotient.

CHILIWACK--FRASER CASCADE loses the areas outside the Fraser Valley RD, and is 0.86% below quotient.

The North, still 3:
SKEENA - BULKLEY VALLEY add 8,524 in Vanderhoof area, 5.96% below quotient.
CARIBOO - PRINCE GEORGE after transferring those 8,524, 4.24% below quotient.
PRINCE GEORGE - PEACE RIVER unchanged only 0.97% over quotient

Interior, 7, now 6
KAMLOOPS--SHUSWAP—THOMPSON including 65% of Kamloops City, 1.19% over quotient. About 67% of these residents are within the present Kamloops--Thompson–Cariboo. (The growing city of Kamloops is large enough for its own riding, but I cannot find a good way to do that.)
OKANAGAN NORTH--LAKE COUNTRY--NORTH KELOWNA, 4.7% over quotient. About 78% of its residents are in the present Okanagan—Shuswap riding.
KELOWNA has all but 7,000 City residents, 5.3% over quotient.
OKANAGAN SOUTH-CENTRAL (remove the 13,244 residents of Okanagan–Coquihalla who are in Thompson-Nicola), 3.98% under quotient.
The new riding of COQUIHALLA—LILLOOET—CARIBOO is centered on Merritt. It includes about 31,500 Kamloops city residents, along with 3,633 in Logan Lake and area. It includes 11,171 people in Merritt and area. It includes 32,621 residents of Squamish-Lillooet RD, all of the district west to and including Whistler. It includes 4,492 residents of Princeton and area who are, for example, in the same Nicola-Similkameen school district as Merritt. And it includes the 14,421 residents of Cariboo who are now in Kamloops - Thompson – Cariboo. This riding reminds one of Cariboo-Chilcotin which, from 1976-1987, included Squamish-Lillooet Regional District, parts of Thompson- Nicola Regional District, and Cariboo Regional District. About 48% of the residents of COQUIHALLA—LILLOOET—CARIBOO are now in Kamloops - Thompson – Cariboo, while the other 52% are now in three other ridings. It has 97,838 residents, 6.61% under quotient, quite appropriate for a far-flung riding.
BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTHERN INTERIOR, after losing the Princeton area, 10.79% under quotient.
KOOTENAY—COLUMBIA unchanged, 15.98% under quotient.

Vancouver Island gets a new riding:
VANCOUVER ISLAND NORTH—POWELL RIVER (includes Comox), 1.3% under quotient.
NANAIMO (includes Lantzville), 2.84% over quotient.
COWICHAN—LANGFORD (includes Highlands), 6.6% over quotient.
ESQUIMALT - JUAN DE FUCA, loses Langford and Highlands but gains 8,000 from Saanich, 4% over quotient.
SAANICH—GULF ISLANDS loses 8,000 residents, now 3.8% over quotient.
VICTORIA unchanged, 5.9% over quotient.
Note that every riding is within a 10% deviation except the two remote ridings of Kootenay-Columbia and Southern Interior, and the two North Shore-Coast ridings are again just over 10% as they were in the 2003 report, to avoid a cross-Burrard-Inlet riding.


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Wilf Day said...

I’ve changed my prediction slightly now that I have the actual census numbers. The only thing that makes me nervous is my COQUIHALLA—LILLOOET—CARIBOO riding. What do you think?