Moderate proportionality for Canada’s House of Commons, with 11-MP regions

NOTE: One alternative to 14-MP "top-up regions" is 8-MP "top-up regions" inspired by the UK's Jenkins Commission. Still, 11-MP regions might be a compromise.

Stéphane Dion and Justin Trudeau agree on one thing: all MPs should represent real communities, and the proportionality of the voting system should be moderate. Scotland’s proportional representation model, with 16 MPs per region, leaves them both cold.

What about regions averaging 11 or 12 MPs? For example, seven local MPs, topped up by four additional regional MPs elected by those voters, or eight and four. The total number of MPs from the region matches the vote share. Every vote counts equally, and counts for your first choice. Every MP faced the voters, and is accountable to voters in a real community.  And the proportionality is moderate enough to avoid a proliferation of parties. Like the 12-MP regions used by Wales for their legislature.

Big enough for Green voters?

But are those regions large enough to give voters for the Green Party a fair voice? Actually, yes: by my projection of the 2011 votes into the new 338-MP House of Commons already set for 2015, they would elect ten MPs. Not quite the 11 or 13 MPs they deserve, but very close. In Alberta, Green Party voters should elect two MPs, but dividing the province into three regions leaves them with only one. Not bad. In Quebec, Green Party voters might have elected two MPs, but with Quebec split into seven regions and with only 2.1% of the votes, they would elect no one. Still, that’s well below any normal 4% or 5% threshold.
 

And in a real election, once every vote counts, more people would vote, and more voters would vote for their first choice.

Big enough for Liberal voters?

In some regions of Canada, Liberal Party voters are almost as scarce as Green Party voters. Would regions of 11 or 12 MPs cheat them? Very rarely. In the BC Interior, and on Vancouver Island, where Liberals were outnumbered by Green voters in 2011, they would be shortchanged one MP on the votes cast in that election. Overall, Liberal voters elect 63 projected MPs, only one less than the 64 perfect proportionality would give them. 

Open regional lists? Or no lists at all?

Who would the regional MPs be? The Law Commission proposed that you can vote for the regional candidate of your party you prefer, so the party’s candidate with the most support is elected. Another method would be, to have no regional candidates at all, and the regional MP would be the local candidate who didn’t win but came closest to winning a local seat. Either way, it’s up to the voters, so the additional MPs might easily be the same people either way. But 90% of voters tell pollsters they want to see more women elected, so when we have a choice of regional candidates, we'll elect more women.

The Law Commission model

The Law Commission of Canada recommended a moderate mixed-member model, with two-thirds of the MPs still elected from local ridings. In my projection of the 2011 votes into the new 338-MP House of Commons already set for 2015, only 36% of the MPs are regional MPs. Is that enough? In a few cases, not quite. For example, in the Toronto suburbs of Peel—Oakville in 2011 the Conservatives swept all 10 ridings with only 46% of the vote. Similarly, in the Montreal suburban region of Montérégie the NDP swept all 12 ridings with only 46% of the vote.

If we use province-wide totals with perfect proportionality the results for 338 MPs would have been 140 Conservative, 103 NDP, 64 Liberal, 18 Bloc, and 13 Green. In my simulation, after adjustments due to 64% local seats, the results are 142 Conservative, 106 NDP, 63 Liberal, 17 Bloc, and 10 Green.

Of course, the downside is that every group of three local ridings becomes a pair of larger ridings. But in return, you have competing MPs: you can go to your local MP or one of your regional MPs. Fair Vote Canada says “We must change the voting system to give rural and urban voters in every province, territory and regional community effective votes and fair representation in both government and opposition.”

How would regional MPs serve residents?

Diversity

Clearly this would allow fair representation of Canada’s political diversity in each region. As Stéphane Dion says “I do not see why we should maintain a voting system that makes our major parties appear less national and our regions more politically opposed than they really are.”

In 2011 across Canada it took 35,147 votes to elect a Conservative MP, yet 129,310 Liberal voters in Alberta elected no one. So did 147,214 NDP voters in Saskatchewan. So did Metropolitan Montreal’s 222,396 Conservative voters.

Would this model also help reflect in Parliament the diversity of society, removing barriers to the nomination and election of candidates from groups now underrepresented including women, cultural minorities and Aboriginals? As long as a party is nominating at least five regional candidates, you can expect them to nominate a diverse group. With four regional MPs from a region, and seven local MPs, a major party would need at least eight regional candidates, since any candidates who win local seats are removed from the regional count.

What would the House of Commons look like?

When all these silenced voters can elect a representative, what would the House of Commons look like? With the new 338-MP House, we would have 30 regions for the 335 MPs from provinces, 11.2 MPs per region; other than the small provinces of Newfoundland & Labrador and PEI, we have 11.6 MPs per region (12 in Ontario, 11 in Quebec).

On the votes cast in 2011 we would see this:

Ontario

The 12 MPs from the Toronto communities of North York and Etobicoke would have included two more Liberals - maybe Martha Hall Findlay and Rob Oliphant - and one more New Democrat - maybe Giulio Manfrini or Mary Hynes.

The 13 MPs from Toronto and Scarborough would have included a Green - maybe Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu - and two urban Conservatives (an under-represented breed) such as Harry Tsai and Rev. Kevin Moore.

From York—Durham region, as well as John McCallum Liberal voters would have elected two more MPs, maybe Mark Holland and Dan McTeague or Bryon Wilfert or Karen Mock. NDP voters would have elected two MPs, such as Chris Buckley and Nadine Hawkins. Green voters would have elected an MP, perhaps John Dewar or Rebecca Harrison.

From Peel—Oakville region, where Liberal and NDP voters elected no one in 2011, Liberal voters would have elected four MPs such as Peter Fonseca, Bonnie Crombie, Navdeep Bains, and Paul Szabo or Andrew Kania. NDP voters would have elected two MPs such as Jagmeet Singh and Michelle Bilek or Waseem Ahmed.

For South Central Ontario’s 13 MPs, where Liberal voters elected no one in 2011, they would have elected three MPs such as Hamilton’s Dave Braden, Burlington's Alyssa Brierley, and former Haldimand-Norfolk MP Bob Speller or Niagara Falls’ Bev Hodgson or former Ontario Minister Marie Bountrogianni.

For the Ottawa region’s 11 MPs (including Cornwall and Pembroke) Liberal voters would have elected another MP such as David Bertschi, Anita Vanderbeld or Julie Bourgeois. NDP voters would have elected another MP such as Trevor Haché or Marlene Rivier. Green voters would have elected an MP such as Caroline Rioux or Jen Hunter.

From Central West Ontario (Waterloo Region to Owen Sound with 11 MPs), as well as Frank Valeriote Liberal voters would have elected another MP such as Karen Redman or Andrew Telegdi. NDP voters would have elected two MPs such as Susan Galvao and Grant Robertson. Green voters would have elected an MP such as Ard Van Leeuwen or Emma Hogbin.

From southwestern Ontario with 11 MPs, Liberal voters would have elected two such as London’s Glen Pearson and Chatham’s Matt Daudlin or Wallaceburg’s Gayle Stucke or London’s Doug Ferguson. NDP voters would have elected a fourth MP such as Essex County’s Taras Natyshak or Sarnia’s Brian White.

From East Central Ontario, as well as Ted Hsu Liberal voters would have elected an additional MP such as Peterborough’s Betsy McGregor, Orillia’s Steve Clarke or Cobourg’s Kim Rudd. NDP voters would have elected three MPs such as Peterborough’s Dave Nickle, Parry Sound’s Dr. Wendy Wilson, and Belleville’s Michael McMahon or Lindsay’s Lyn Edwards. Green Party voters would have elected an MP such as Parry Sound’s Glen Hodgson or Simcoe North’s Valerie Powell.

From Northern Ontario, Liberal voters would have elected two MPs, such as North Bay’s Anthony Rota and Thunder Bay’s Ken Boshcoff or Sudbury’s Carol Hartman or Kenora’s Roger Valley.

British Columbia

British Columbia’s 42 MPs would be in four regions with an average of 10.5 MPs per region.

The 13 MPs from Vancouver-Burnaby-Richmond-North Shore (8 local, 5 regional) would include an additional Liberal MP such as Ujjal Dosanjh or Taleeb Noormohamed, and a Green MP – no doubt Deputy Leader Adriane Carr.

The 13 MPs from Surrey-Abbotsford-Coquitlam-Langley-Delta would include two Liberal MPs such as Sukh Dhaliwal and Pam Dhanoa, and an additional NDP MP such as Maple Ridge’s Craig Speirs or Chiliwack’s Gwen O'Mahony.

In the BC Interior NDP voters would have elected an additional MP such as Kamloops’ Michael Crawford or Okanagan’s Nikki Inouye. Green voters would have elected an MP such as Greig Crockett or Alice Hooper.

On Vancouver Island under-represented Conservative voters would have elected an additional MP such as Victoria’s Troy DeSouza or Gary Lunn.   

Quebec

Quebec’s 78 MPs would be in seven regions with about 11 MPs each.

In 2011, Metropolitan Montreal’s 222,396 Conservative voters elected no one, while 256,004 Saskatchewan Conservative voters elected 13 MPs.

For West Montreal’s 10 MPs, Conservative voters would have elected two, such as former Senator Larry Smith and Agop Evereklian or Svetlana Litvin, giving Montreal a voice in cabinet. Bloc voters would have elected one, maybe Thierry St-Cyr.

For Montreal—Laval’s 12 MPs, Conservative voters would have elected an MP such as Gérard Labelle or Audrey Castonguay. Bloc voters would have elected two more MPs such as Gilles Duceppe and Ginette Beaudry.

For the Montérégie region south of Montreal, Conservative voters would have elected an MP such as Jean-Guy Dagenais or Mélisa Leclerc. Liberal voters would have elected an MP such as Alexandra Mendès. Bloc voters would have elected three MPs such as Luc Malo, Longueuil’s Carole Lavallée, and Claude DeBellefeuille.

For the Laurentides--Lanaudière--Outaouais--Abibiti--Nord du Quebec region, Conservative voters would have elected two MPs such as External Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon and former Deux-Montagnes MNA Lucie Leblanc. Liberal voters would have elected an MP such as Gatineau’s Marcel Proulx or Jean-Marc Lacoste from the Laurentides. Bloc voters would have elected three MPs such as Bloc House Leader Pierre Paquette, Johanne Deschamps from the Laurentides, and Rouyn-Noranda‘s Marc Lemay.

For the 11 MPs of the Quebec City--Saguenay--Côte-Nord region, Liberal voters would have elected an MP such as Jean Beaupré or Martine Gaudreault. Conservative voters would have elected a second MP such as Josée Verner. Bloc voters would have elected two MPs such as Michel Guimond and Christiane Gagnon from Quebec City or Chicoutimi’s Robert Bouchard.

From Estrie-Centre-du-Québec-Mauricie, Liberal voters would have elected an MP such as Francine Gaudet from Trois-Rivières. Conservative voters would have elected, as well as Christian Paradis, another MP such as Jean-Philippe Bachand in L’estrie or Marie-Claude Godue from Maskinongé. Bloc voters would have elected another MP such as Serge Cardin or France Bonsant from Sherbrooke.

From Chaudières-Appalaches-Bas St. Laurent—Gaspésie, Liberal voters would have elected an MP such as Matane’s Nancy Charest. Bloc voters would have elected another MP such as Daniel Côté or Nathalie Arsenault.

Alberta

Alberta’s 34 MPs would be in three regions with 11 or 12 MPs each.

In metropolitan Calgary, Liberal voters would have elected two MPs: maybe Cam Stewart and Jennifer Pollock or Janice Kinch. NDP voters would have elected an MP, such as Paul Vargis or Holly Heffernan. Green voters would have elected an MP, maybe Heather MacIntosh.

In metropolitan Edmonton, Liberal voters would have elected an MP, maybe Mary MacDonald. NDP voters would have elected, as well as Linda Duncan, two additional MPs: maybe Ray Martin and Nadine Bailey or Lewis Cardinal.

In the rest of Alberta, Liberal voters would have elected an MP, such as Northern Alberta’s Karen Young or Medicine Hat mayor Norm Boucher. NDP voters would have elected two MPs, such as Lethbridge professor Mark Sandilands and Grande Prairie Metis lawyer Jennifer Villebrun.

Saskatchewan

In Saskatchewan, where NDP voters cast 32% of the votes but elected no one, they would have elected five MPs, such as Nettie Wiebe, Noah Evanchuk, Lawrence Joseph, Fred Clipsham and Darien Moore.

Manitoba

In Manitoba, Liberal voters would have elected a second MP such as Anita Neville. NDP voters would have elected two more MPs such as Jim Maloway and Rebecca Blaikie.

Nova Scotia

In Nova Scotia, Green voters would have elected an MP such as John Percy, Jason Blanch or Sheila Richardson.

 

New Brunswick

In New Brunswick, Liberal voters would have elected a second MP such as Jean-Claude D'Amours. NDP voters would have elected two more MPs such as Rob Muir and Shawna Gagné.

Newfoundland & Labrador

In Newfoundland & Labrador, Conservative voters would have elected a second MP such as Fabian Manning.

Prince Edward Island

In Prince Edward Island, Conservative voters would have elected a second MP such as Tim Ogilvie or Donna Profit.

Note on diversity: every party and region will adopt different details on their nomination process, but one common method is to nominate local candidates in your “priority” (target) ridings well in advance, next hold the regional nominations (which will add some diversity candidates), and finally nominate local candidates in the non-priority ridings – at which point those who won regional nominations are logical local candidates in the final round. If a party chose to nominate all the local candidates first, and if they had nominated five women and two men in the seven local seats, I can easily imagine them nominating three regional-only women candidates to add to the local candidates.

Note on calculations: for simplicity I am using the "highest remainder" calculation, for rounding off fractions. For example: Party A has 4.34 quotients, Party B has 3.13 quotients, Party C has 3.04 quotients, Party D has 0.49 quotients. The 11th seat goes to Party D.