How would proportional representation work in Eastern Ontario?

NOTE: This post was completely rewritten on Oct. 5, 2014.

For an alternative configuration, see How would proportional representation work in Central East Ontario? 

How would proportional representation work in Eastern Ontario, the Ottawa —Kingston region?

I’m not talking about classic “list-PR” with candidates appointed by central parties. Every Member of Parliament represents actual voters and real communities.
 

Polls show more than 70% of Canadians support proportional representation for Canadian elections, and the Liberal Party of Canada has opened the door to start implementing it within one year of the 2015 election.
 

So this is no longer an academic discussion. This is a practical discussion: if Canada gets PR, how would it work in Eastern Ontario?

Mixed Proportional

With the Mixed Proportional system, you have two votes. With one, you help elect a local MP as we do today.

With the other, you can vote for the party you want to see in government, and for your favourite of your party’s regional candidates. With this vote, you help elect a few regional MPs to top-up the local results so that every vote counts: it’s proportional. You can vote for the regional candidate you prefer: it’s personal. There are no closed lists. Voters elect all the MPs.

Each province still has the same number of MPs it has today. No constitutional amendment is needed.
 

Competing MPs
 

Every voter in the region would be served by competing MPs. You could choose to go to your local MP for service or representation, or you could go to one of your regional MPs from a “top-up region” based in your area, likely including someone you helped elect. Fair Vote Canada says “We must give rural and urban voters in every province, territory and regional community effective votes and fair representation in both government and opposition.”
 

Accountable MPs

This open list method was recommended both by our Law Commission and by the Jenkins Commission in the UK. Jenkins’ colourful explanation accurately predicted why closed lists would be rejected in Canada: additional members locally anchored are “more easily assimilable into the political culture and indeed the Parliamentary system than would be a flock of unattached birds clouding the sky and wheeling under central party directions.”

What would regional MPs do?

How would regional MPs operate? The regional MPs would cover several ridings each. Just the way it’s done in Scotland. Many regional MPs would need several offices, just as Pierre Lemieux already has offices in Hawkesbury, Rockland, Embrun and Alexandria.

Two models

In 2015 Eastern Ontario voters will elect 16 MPs, including two new ridings (Carleton, and Hastings—Lennox & Addington).

They could be in two eight-MP regions, in the model discussed here, inspired by the UK’s Jenkins Commission report. Ottawa will have eight MPs, including the new Carleton. The eight ridings from Belleville to Cornwall and Pembroke, including the new Hastings—Lennox & Addington, could be another eight-MP region centred on Kingston.

Or they could be one single “top-up” region, in the Law Commission of Canada`s model.

The majority of these MPs would still be local MPs. The others would be regional MPs, topping up the results to make them match the vote shares.

How would it work out?

So what would that look like? I’ve done simulations based on the votes cast in 2011.
 

This simulation is only if people voted as they did on May 2, 2011. When every vote counts, turnout will likely be at least 6% higher, and no one will have to cast a “strategic vote.” We would have had different candidates - more women, and more diversity of all kinds. We could even have different parties. Who can say what would be the result of real democratic elections?

Ottawa

In 2011 those voters elected four Conservative MPs, and only three others. Yet those voters voted only 41% Conservative, 31% Liberal, 23% New Democrat, and 4% Green. If every vote counted equally, on those votes on the 2015 boundaries Conservative voters would elect three MPs, Liberal voters three MPs, and New Democrat voters two MPs.

Mid-East Ontario (Kingston—Belleville—Cornwall)

In 2011 those voters elected six Conservative MPs, and only one Liberal. Yet those voters voted only 53% Conservative, 22% Liberal, 19% New Democrat, and 4% Green. If every vote counted equally, on those votes on the 2015 boundaries Conservative voters would elect four MPs, Liberal voters two MPs, and New Democrat voters two MPs.

Eastern Ontario (Ottawa—Kingston)

In the entire region, in 2011 those voters elected ten Conservative MPs, and only four others. Yet those voters voted only 47% Conservative, 27% Liberal, 21% New Democrat, and 4% Green. If every vote counted equally, on those votes on the 2015 boundaries Conservative voters would elect eight MPs, Liberal voters four MPs, New Democrat voters three MPs, and Green voters one.

Regional candidates

How would party members in these regions nominate and rank a group of regional candidates?

It could be done on-line, and with a live convention site in Ottawa or Kingston. Likely party members would nominate the same candidates nominated in the local ridings, and some additional regional candidates. (In Nova Scotia in 2011, in all 11 ridings the Liberals nominated only men. Additional regional candidates would surely have included some women, and since polls show 90% of Canadians want to see more women elected, we’ll elect women when given the chance.)

But voters would have the final say, since they can vote for their party’s regional candidate they prefer. This open list method was recommended both by our Law Commission and by the Jenkins Commission in the UK. Their colourful explanation accurately predicted why closed lists would be rejected in Canada: additional members locally anchored are “more easily assimilable into the political culture and indeed the Parliamentary system than would be a flock of unattached birds clouding the sky and wheeling under central party directions.”

More choice

With two votes, you can vote for the party you want in government. And you can also vote for the local candidate you like best regardless of party, without hurting your party, since it's the second (regional) ballot that determines the party make-up of the legislature. About 32% of voters split their ballots this way in New Zealand with a similar system.

This makes it easier for local MPs to get the support of people of all political stripes. They can earn support for their constituency-representation credentials, not just for their party. This boosts the kind of support MPs bring with them into the House of Commons, thus strengthening their independence.

Ottawa’s MPs

In the first model, based on the UK’s Jenkins Commission Report, Ottawa has five local MPs and three regional MPs. Since I’m projecting from the 2011 votes, I’ll start with the 2011 candidates. Let’s suppose the five local MPs are Conservatives John Baird and Pierre Poilievre, Liberals David McGuinty and Mauril Bélanger, and New Democrat Paul Dewar. (Whether this would really happen would depend on the borders of the five new larger ridings.) In that case, voters for each party would also elect one regional MP.

The regional MPs for each party would be the party’s regional candidates who ended up with the most support.

Conservative voters can vote for the regional Conservative candidate they prefer. Many would prefer Baird or Poilievre, but on election day, since they already won a local seat, the regional seat would go to the next most popular. In other words, Conservative voters whose preference was not Baird or Poilievre could help elect the third Conservative MP. Maybe francophones would prefer Royal Galipeau, who got 28,584 votes in 2011. Ethnic voters might prefer Elie Salibi (19,634) or Damian Konstantinakos (14,063). Woman Conservative voters might have preferred a new regional female candidate. Oddly, in 2011 all seven Conservative candidates in Ottawa were men. (That great Ottawa Conservative Charlotte Whitton would have been astonished.) But when Ottawa Conservatives met to elect their regional candidates, after they had confirmed five men who had already won local nominations, can you imagine them failing to nominate a woman?

Liberal voters would elect a regional MP such as Anita Vandenbeld (who got 17,790 votes in 2011), or Karen McCrimmon (18,393).

NDP voters’ regional MP might have been Trevor Haché who got 15,391 votes or Marlene Rivier (11,128), Ric Dagenais (12,962), or James McLaren (10,712).

Mid-Eastern Ontario’s MPs

In the first model, based on the UK’s Jenkins Commission Report, this region has five local MPs and three regional MPs. Let’s suppose the five local MPs are Conservatives Gord Brown in Leeds, Daryl Kramp in Hastings, Pierre Lemieux in Prescott-Russell, and Scott Reid or Cheryl Gallant in Renfrew—Lanark, and Liberal Ted Hsu in Kingston. (This would depend on local nominations and the borders of the five new larger ridings.)

In that case, Liberal voters would also elect one regional MP.  Maybe Casselman’s Julie Bourgeois who got 17,705 votes in 2011, Belleville’s Peter Tinsley (10,230), or Brockville’s Marjory Loveys (7,839).

New Democrat voters would elect two regional MPs. Maybe Kingston’s Daniel Beals who got 13,065 votes in 2011 and Belleville’s Michael McMahon (12,940), or Doug Smyth from Carleton Place (12,174), or Denis Séguin from Prescott-Russell (9,608).

Eastern Ontario’s MPs (Ottawa—Kingston)

In the second model, based on the Law Commission of Canada Report, this region with sixteen MPs would again have ten local MPs and six regional MPs. Conservative voters would elect eight MPs, Liberal voters four MPs, New Democrat voters three MPs, and Green voters one.

Let’s again suppose the ten local MPs are Conservatives John Baird and Pierre Poilievre in Ottawa, Gord Brown in Leeds, Daryl Kramp in Hastings, Pierre Lemieux in Prescott-Russell, and Scott Reid or Cheryl Gallant in Renfrew—Lanark; Liberals Mauril Bélanger and David McGuinty in Ottawa and Ted Hsu in Kingston; and New Democrat Paul Dewar in Ottawa.

In that case, Conservative voters elect two regional Conservative MPs, and can vote for the candidate they prefer. Maybe Ottawa’s Royal Galipeau, who got 28,584 votes in 2011, and whoever isn’t the local MP from Renfrew—Lanark - - Scott Reid (33,754) or Cheryl Gallant  (27,462) - - or maybe Kingston’s Alicia Gordon (21,189), or Ottawa’s Elie Salibi (19,634).
 

Liberal voters would also elect a regional MP. Maybe Ottawa’s Anita Vandenbeld (who got 17,790 votes in 2011) or Karen McCrimmon (18,393), or Casselman’s Julie Bourgeois (17,705), or Belleville’s Peter Tinsley (10,230).

New Democrat voters would elect two regional MPs. Maybe Ottawa’s Trevor Haché who got 15,391 votes in 2011 and Kingston’s Daniel Beals (13,065), or Ottawa’s Marlene Rivier (11,128), or Ottawa’s Ric Dagenais (12,962), or Belleville’s Michael McMahon (12,940), or Doug Smyth from Carleton Place (12,174).

Green voters would elect one regional MP, such as Ottawa’s Jen Hunter who got 3,262 votes in 2011, or John Hogg (3,434), Jean-Luc Cooke (3,260), Caroline Rioux (2,716), or Lanark’s John Baranyi (2,702) or Kingston’s Eric Walton (2,561).

Two models: summary

By using two regions, both regions are sure of keeping eight MPs. On the one-region model, in theory all six regional MPs might have been from one half of the region. And with only eight MPs per region, the proportionality is more moderate. No Green Party MP. (See Technical note below as to how close they came.)

Also, by a fluke of rounding differences, the two-region model costs Conservative voters an MP, while the Liberals and NDP each gain one. One nice feature of a system with 27 regions is that these rounding differences even themselves out across Canada.

Canada-wide consequences

If we had used province-wide totals with perfect proportionality the projected results on the 2011 votes with the extra 30 MPs would be: 140 Conservatives, 104 NDP, 64 Liberals, 19 Bloc, and 11 Green.

With these mixed models, the projected results for 338 MPs are 142 or 143 Conservatives, 106 or 107 NDP, 66 or 62 Liberals, 15 or 18 Bloc, and 10 or 7 Greens. Close to perfect proportionality, while keeping all MPs accountable to real local and regional communities.

Canadian diversity

As Stéphane Dion says "I no longer want a voting system that gives the impression that certain parties have given up on Quebec, or on the West. On the contrary, the whole spectrum of parties, from Greens to Conservatives, must embrace all the regions of Canada. In each region, they must covet and be able to obtain seats proportionate to their actual support. This is the main reason why I recommend replacing our voting system."

This is not a partisan scheme. Unrepresented Conservative voters would elect eight more Quebec MPs than in 2011, one more in Newfoundland, one more in PEI, one more in Northern Ontario, and one more on Vancouver Island.

Of course, proportional representation would mean a lot for Canada. We would not likely have a one party government’s Prime Minister holding all the power. (The last Prime Minister who got more than 50% of the votes was Brian Mulroney in 1988.) Parliament would reflect the diverse voters of every province.

With this kind of power-sharing, Canada would look quite different.

If we had a Proportional Representation voting system, here are only a few of the things Canadians could have accomplished over the past twenty years:

Ø Engaged and motivated voters
Ø A reinvigorated democratic system
Ø More women MPs and a fair mix of party representation

Our electoral system is broken and people know it:

Ø Disengaged citizens are ignoring their right to vote
Ø A dysfunctional conflict-oriented political process
Ø Majority governments with minority voting results

Poll results on proportional representation

Environics asked “Some people favor bringing in a form of proportional representation. This means that the total number of seats held by each party in Parliament would be roughly equivalent to their percentage of the national popular vote. Would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose moving towards a system of proportional representation in Canadian elections?”

Interviewing for this Environics National Telephone Survey was conducted between March 18th – 24th, 2013, among a national random sample of 1,004 adults. The margin of error for a sample of this size is +/- 3.10%, 19 times out of 20.

Result: support 70%, oppose 18%, depends 6%, don’t know 6%.

The Environics poll showed 93% of Green voters support proportional representation while 4% oppose; 82% of NDP voters support it while 11% oppose; 77% of Liberal voters support it while 15% oppose; 62% of Conservative supporters support it while 28% oppose; and 55% of voters undecided as to party support PR while 19% oppose and 27% said “don’t know” or “depends.”

This is not new. Poll results have shown this for 13 years.

Technical notes

The rounding method used in the simulation is highest remainder, for the same reason the Ontario Citizens Assembly chose it: it's the simplest. Germany used to use this too, on the premise that it offset the risk to proportionality of the 5% threshold. Similarly it offsets the eight-MP region sizes.

Why did those Green voters elect no one in the two-region model? Here’s how the numbers of MPs turn out in Ottawa: Conservatives 3.32, Liberals 2.50, NDP 1.86, Greens 0.33. After the first six seats are calculated, the seventh goes to the “highest remainder,” the NDP, and the eighth then follows the “highest remainder” principle and goes to the Liberals. If discouraged Green Party voters had cast 7,600 more votes across Ottawa, they would have elected an MP such as Jen Hunter.
 

Similarly, Green voters outside Ottawa elected no one. But if discouraged Greens had cast 11,600 more votes in those eight ridings, they would have elected a regional MP such as Kingston’s Eric Walton.

Similarly, in 2008 the Green Party got a lot more votes than in 2011. At the 2008 vote levels, Ottawa’s eight MPs would be 3 Conservatives, 3 Liberals, 1 NDP and 1 Green.

In the first model, the local MP is elected by a preferential ballot, but that would have made no difference in Eastern Ontario on the 2011 votes. I’ve used the EKOS poll taken April 28-30, 2011.