How would proportional representation work in British Columbia?

How would proportional representation work in British Columbia, for federal elections?

I’m not talking about classic “list-PR” with candidates appointed by central parties. I’m talking about the model designed by the Law Commission of Canada, where every Member of Parliament represents actual voters and real communities. The majority of MPs will be elected by local ridings as we do today. The others are elected as regional MPs, topping-up the numbers of MPs from your region so the total is proportional to the votes for each party. You cancast a personal vote for a candidate within the regional list. The region is small enough that the regional MPs are accountable.

Polls show more than 70% of Canadians support proportionalrepresentation for Canadian elections. Canada’s Liberal Party has opened the door to start implementing PR within one year of the 2015 election. The NDP and Greens fully support PR.

So this is no longer an academic discussion. This is a practical discussion: if Canada gets PR, how would it work in British Columbia?

Mixed Proportional

With the Mixed Proportional system, you have two votes. With one, you help elect a local MP as we do today.

With the other vote, you can vote for the party you want to see in government, and for your favourite of your party’s regional candidates. So you help elect a few regional MPs, to top-up the local results so that every vote counts: it’s proportional.

You can vote for the regional candidate you prefer: it’s personal. There are no closed lists. Voters elect all the MPs.

This open list method was recommended both by our Law Commission and by the Jenkins Commission in the UK. Jenkins’ colourful explanation accurately predicted why closed lists would be rejected in Canada: additional members locally anchored are “more easily assimilable into the political culture and indeed the Parliamentary system than would be a flock of unattached birds clouding the sky and wheeling under central party directions.”

These two models both let citizens of regions across Canada elect competing MPs: a local MP, and a few regional MPs from a “top-up region” based in your area, likely including someone you helped elect.

Every vote counts. Fair Vote Canada says “We must give rural and urban voters in every province, territory and regional community effective votes and fair representation in both government and opposition.”

Two models:

Under the Law Commission of Canada`s model, the 42 MPs British Columbia voters will elect in 2015 could be in four “top-up” regions, from larger ridings. Under the “moderate” model inspired by the UK`s Jenkins Commission Report, they could be in five top-up regions.

Competing MPs

These models let citizens of regions across Canada elect competing MPs: a local MP, and a few regional MPs from a “top-up region” based in your area, likely including someone you helped elect. Every vote counts. Each province still has the same number of MPs it has today. No constitutional amendment is needed.

Local MPs become more independent

With two votes, you can vote for the party you want in government. And you can also vote for the local candidate you like best regardless of party, without hurting your party, since it's the second (regional) ballot that determines the party make-up of the legislature. About 32% of voters split their ballots this way in New Zealand with a similar system.

This makes it easier for local MPs to get the support of people of all political stripes. They can earn support for their constituency-representation credentials, not just for their party. This boosts the kind of support MPs bring with them into the House of Commons, thus strengthening their independence.

Regional candidates

How would party members nominate and rank a group of regional candidates? It could be done on-line, and with live conventions. Likely party members in each region would decide to nominate the same candidates nominated in the local ridings, and some additional regional candidates. (In Nova Scotia in 2011, in all 11 ridings the Liberals nominated only men. Additional regional candidates would surely have included some women, and since polls show 90% of Canadians want to see more women elected, we’ll elect women when given the chance.)

But voters would have the final say, since they can vote for their party’s regional candidate they prefer.

What would regional MPs do?

How would regional MPs operate? The regional MPs would cover several ridings each. Just the way it’s done in Scotland. They could have several offices, just as MP John Weston has three.

More people would vote, and vote differently

As Prof. Dennis Pilon says: "Now keep in mind that, when you change the voting system, you also change the incentives that affect the kinds of decisions that voters might make. For instance, we know that, when every vote counts, voters won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or casting a strategic vote. Thus, we should expect that support for different parties might change."

And when every vote counts, turnout will be higher -- perhaps 7% higher. So, when voters have more choice, the results will be far more representative of our diverse population and their diverse views. Who can say what would be the result of real democratic elections?

One thing we know for sure: it is extremely unlikely that voters would vote exactly as they did in 2011.

Meanwhile, I’ve done projections on the votes cast in 2011

How would it work out?

So what would these two models look like?

BC Interior region

On the votes cast in 2011, the winner-take-all results in this region on the 2015 boundaries would be eight Conservative MPs and one New Democrat. Yet those voters cast only 52% of their votes for Conservatives, 33% NDP, 7.1% Green, and 6.6% Liberals. If every vote counted equally, Conservative voters would elect five MPs, New Democrat voters three, and Green voters one. (See technical note as to the Liberals.)

Since I’m projecting from the 2011 votes, I’ll start with the 2011 candidates. Suppose the six local MPs (from larger ridings) were Conservatives Dan Albas, Cathy McLeod, Ron Cannan, Bob Zimmer, and David Wilks; and New Democrat Nathan Cullen. In that case, NDP voters would also elect two regional MP such as Alex Atamanenko and Michael Crawford or Nikki Inouye or Lois Boone. Green voters would elect a regional MP such as Greig Crockett or Alice Hooper.

Vancouver Island

On the votes cast in 2011, the winner-take-all results in this region on the 2015 boundaries would be four NDP MPs, two Conservatives and one Green. Yet those voters actually cast 72 more votes for the Conservatives than for the NDP. If every vote counted equally, Conservative voters would elect three MPs, New Democrat voters three, and Green voters one.

Suppose the four local MPs (from larger ridings) were New Democrats Jean Crowder and Denise Savoie, Conservative John Duncan; and Green Elizabeth May. In that case, Conservative voters would also elect two regional MPs such as James Lunney and Gary Lunn or Troy DeSouza. (Or a new female candidate, if Vancouver Island Conservatives, nominating additional regional candidates, didn’t just nominate seven men.) NDP voters would also elect a regional MP such as Ronna-Rae Leonard or Randall Garrison.

Lower Mainland

The 26 MPs under the new electoral boundaries could be in two “top-up” regions, with 12 and 14 MPs in each. Or they could be in three “top-up” regions, with eight or nine MPs in each. These smaller regions are intended to be “moderately” proportional, less likely to elect MPs from smaller parties like the Greens.

Vancouver—Burnaby—North Shore—Maple Ridge

On the votes cast in 2011, the winner-take-all results in this region on the 2015 boundaries would be eight Conservative MPs, four New Democrats and two Liberals. Yet those voters cast only 39.8% of their votes for Conservatives. If every vote counted equally, Conservative voters would elect five MPs, New Democrat voters five, Liberal voters three, and Green voters one.

Suppose the nine local MPs (from larger ridings) were Conservatives James Moore, John Weston, Andrew Saxton, Randy Kamp, and Wai Young; New Democrats Libby Davies, Peter Julian and Don Davies; and Liberal Joyce Murray. In that case, NDP voters would also elect two regional MPs such as Kennedy Stewart and Fin Donnelly or Meena Wong. Liberal voters would also elect two regional MPs such as Hedy Fry and Ujjal Dosanjh or Taleeb Noormohamed. Green voters would elect a regional MP such as Adriane Carr.

Surrey—Richmond—Abbotsford—Langley

On the votes cast in 2011, the winner-take-all results in this region on the 2015 boundaries would be ten Conservative MPs and two New Democrats. Yet those voters cast only 53% of their votes for Conservatives, 26% for New Democrats, 16% for Liberals, and 4.5% for Greens. If every vote counted equally, Conservative voters would elect six MPs, New Democrat voters three, Liberal voters two, and Green voters one.

Suppose the seven local MPs (from larger ridings) were Conservatives Kerry-Lynne Findlay, Ed Fast, Alice Wong, Mark Warawa, Nina Grewal, and Mark Strahl; and New Democrat Jinny Sims. In that case, NDP voters would also elect two regional MPs such as Jasbir Sandhu and Gwen O'Mahony. Liberal voters would also elect two regional MPs such as Sukh Dhaliwal and Hardy Staub or Pam Dhanoa or Joe Peschisolido. Green voters would elect a regional MP such as Larry Colero or Michael Wolfe.

Moderate model

Instead of those two regions, take the option of three smaller regions.

Vancouver—Richmond—Delta

On the votes cast in 2011, the winner-take-all results in this region on the 2015 boundaries would be five Conservative MPs, two New Democrats and two Liberals. Yet those voters cast only 37.8% of their votes for Conservatives. If every vote counted equally, Conservative voters would elect three MPs, New Democrat voters three, Liberal voters two, and Green voters one. (See technical note as to the Green.)

Suppose the five local MPs (from larger ridings) were Conservatives Kerry-Lynne Findlay and Alice Wong, New Democrats Libby Davies and Don Davies; and Liberal Joyce Murray. In that case Liberal voters would also elect a regional MP such as Hedy Fry or Ujjal Dosanjh. NDP voters would also elect a regional MP such as Meena Wong.

Conservative voters would also elect a regional MP such as Wai Young or Deborah Meredith. Green voters would elect a regional MP such as Adriane Carr.

Burnaby—North Shore—Coquitlam—Maple Ridge

On the votes cast in 2011, the winner-take-all results in this region on the 2015 boundaries would be six Conservative MPs and two New Democrats. Yet those voters cast only 46% of their votes for Conservatives. If every vote counted equally, Conservative voters would elect four MPs, New Democrat voters three, and Liberal voters one

Suppose the five local MPs (from larger ridings) were Conservatives James Moore, John Weston, Andrew Saxton, and Randy Kamp; and New Democrat Peter Julian. In that case NDP voters would also elect two regional MPs such as Kennedy Stewart and Fin Donnelly. Liberal voters would also elect a regional MP such as Taleeb Noormohamed or Dan Veniez.

Surrey—Fraser Valley

On the votes cast in 2011, the winner-take-all results in this region on the 2015 boundaries would be seven Conservative MPs and two New Democrats. Yet those voters cast only 53% of their votes for Conservatives. If every vote counted equally, Conservative voters would elect five MPs, New Democrat voters three, and Liberal voters one

Suppose the five local MPs (from larger ridings) were Conservatives Ed Fast, Mark Warawa, Nina Grewal, and Mark Strahl; and New Democrat Jinny Sims. In that case NDP voters would also elect two regional MPs such as Jasbir Sandhu and Gwen O'Mahony. Liberal voters would also elect a regional MP such as Sukh Dhaliwal. Conservative voters would also elect a regional MP such as Dona Cadman or Mani Fallon.

Canada-wide consequences.

With the new 30 MPs, on the 2011 votes transposed by Elections Canada onto the new boundaries, the winner-take-all results for the 338 MPs would be 188 Conservative, 109 NDP, 36 Liberal, 4 Bloc, and 1 Green.

When every vote counts, the result is: 140 Conservatives, 104 NDP, 64 Liberals, 19 Bloc, and 11 Green, using full proportionality on province-wide totals.

With these two mixed models, the projected results are 140 Conservatives, 106 or 108 NDP, 63 or 67 Liberals, 15 or 18 Bloc, and 8 or 11 Greens. Close to perfect proportionality, while keeping all MPs accountable to real local and regional communities. 

 

BC-wide consequences

By a province-wide calculation, BC Liberal voters should have elected six MPs (well, 5.68). But no matter which model we use, the BC Liberal vote in 2011 was so low in the Interior and Vancouver Island that it fell below the level of the Greens, and we find only five Liberal MPs elected. With the four-region model, the spare seat goes to the Greens, so the provincial totals are 19 Conservative MPs, 14 NDP, five Liberals, and four Greens. (This is just as well, since splitting Alberta into at least three regions costs the Greens a seat there. That’s what’s nice about this Scottish model; with proportionality in at least 27 regions across Canada, rounding errors tend to cancel out.) With the five-region “moderate” model, the bad luck of rounding leaves the Liberals short two MPs, to the benefit of the Conservatives (one) and the NDP (one).

Canadian diversity

As Stéphane Dion says "I no longer want a voting system that gives the impression that certain parties have given up on Quebec, or on the West. On the contrary, the whole spectrum of parties, from Greens to Conservatives, must embrace all the regions of Canada. In each region, they must covet and be able to obtain seats proportionate to their actual support. This is the main reason why I recommend replacing our voting system."

Each province still has the same number of MPs it has today. No constitutional amendment is needed.

This is not a partisan scheme. Unrepresented Conservative voters would elect eight more Quebec MPs than in 2011, one more in Newfoundland, one more in PEI, one more in Northern Ontario, and one more on Vancouver Island.

Of course, proportional representation would mean a lot for Canada. We would not likely have a one party government’s Prime Minister holding all the power. (The last Prime Minister to get more than 50% of the votes was Brian Mulroney in 1984.) Parliament would reflect the diverse voters of every province.

An exciting prospect: voters have new power to elect who they like. New voices from new forces in Parliament. No party rolls the dice and wins an artificial majority. Cooperation will have a higher value than cheerleading or vitriolic rhetoric. Instead of having only a local MP -- whom you quite likely didn’t vote for -- you can also go to one of your diverse regional MPs, all of whom had to face the voters. Governments will have to listen to MPs, and MPs will have to really listen to the people. MPs can begin to act as the public servants they are. And all party caucuses will be more diverse.

With this kind of power-sharing, Canada would look quite different.

If we had a Proportional Representation voting system, here are only a few of the things Canadians could have accomplished over the past twenty years:
Ø Engaged and motivated voters
Ø A reinvigorated democratic system
Ø More women MPs and a fair mix of party representation

Our electoral system is broken and people know it:
Ø Disengaged citizens are ignoring their right to vote
Ø A dysfunctional conflict-oriented political process
Ø Majority governments with minority voting results

Poll results on proportional representation

Environics asked in 2013 “Some people favor bringing in a form of proportional representation. This means that the total number of seats held by each party in Parliament would be roughly equivalent to their percentage of the national popular vote. Would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose moving towards a system of proportional representation in Canadian elections?”

Interviewing for this Environics National Telephone Survey was conducted between March 18th – 24th, 2013, among a national random sample of 1,004 adults. The margin of error for a sample of this size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

Result: support 70%, oppose 18%, depends 6%, don’t know 6%.

The Environics poll showed 93% of Green voters support proportional representation while 4% oppose; 82% of NDP voters support it while 11% oppose; 77% of Liberal voters support it while 15% oppose; 62% of Conservative supporters support it while 28% oppose; and 55% of voters undecided as to party support PR while 19% oppose and 27% said “don’t know” or “depends.”

This is not new. Poll results have shown this for 13 years.

Technical note

The rounding method used in the simulation is highest remainder, for the same reason the Ontario Citizens Assembly chose it: it's the simplest. Germany used to use this too, on the premise that it offset the risk to proportionality of their 5% threshold. Similarly it offsets smaller region sizes.

You might wonder why those 6.6% Liberal voters in the BC Interior elect no one. Here’s how the numbers of MPs turn out: Conservatives 4.75, NDP 3.00, Greens 0.65, Liberals 0.60. After the first seven seats are calculated, the 8^th goes to the “highest remainder,” the Conservatives; and the 9^th then follows the “highest remainder” principle, and goes to the Greens.

You might also wonder how Green Party voters in Vancouver—Richmond—Delta would deserve an MP, despite the “moderate” region size of only nine MPs. The numbers work out as follows: Conservatives 3.43 MPs; New Democrats 2.73; Liberals 2.25, Greens 0.59. After the first seven seats are awarded, the 8^th goes to the "highest remainder” (the NDP), and the 9^th seat goes to the next highest (the Greens.)

Would second preferences, used in the Jenkins model, have changed any results in 2011? Sometimes, using the EKOS poll taken April 28-30, 2011. But not in BC in 2011.