Saturday, April 2, 2016

Canada’s 83 missing MPs in 2015

Canada’s 83 diverse missing MPs in 2015

(Note: this post was revised and updated Oct. 28, 2016.)

Electoral reform is not a partisan issue, as every electoral reformer knows. But some people, including some in the media, aren’t so sure.

To show this, let’s see at least 83 missing MPs: the MPs who would have been in the House of Commons right now, if so many of us had not cast ineffective votes. In 2015 voters for every party were shut out in some regions, electing MPs only in their strongholds.

Of course, as Prof. Dennis Pilon says in this video: "Now keep in mind that, when you change the voting system, you also change the incentives that affect the kinds of decisions that voters might make. For instance, we know that, when every vote counts, voters won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or casting a strategic vote. Thus, we should expect that support for different parties might change."

And when every vote counts, turnout will be higher -- perhaps 7% higher. So, when voters have more choice, the results will be far more representative of our diverse population and their diverse views. Who can say what would be the result of real democratic elections?

For more information on the mixed compensatory proportional voting system, click here.

Meanwhile, I’ve done a simulation on the votes cast in October 2015. Of course, not every MP elected in 2015 would still be elected, but you can see how proportional representation would instead have given each region balanced representation:

18 or 19 missing diverse Liberal MPs

In Alberta, voters cast enough Liberal votes to elect nine MPs, not just the four who went to Ottawa. They would have elected another MP from Calgary like Matt Grant, Nirmala Naidoo, Kerry Cundal, or Cam Stewart. Another MP from Edmonton like Karen Leibovici or Tariq Chaudary. An MP from the north like Fort McMurray’s Kyle Harrietha or Grande Prairie’s Reagan Johnston An MP from Central Alberta like Beaumont’s Jacqueline Biollo, Hinton’s Ryan Maguhn or Chandra Kastern or Jeff Rock from Red Deer. An MP from southern Alberta like Canmore’s Marlo Raynolds,  Lethbridge’s Mike Pyne or Medicine Hat’s Glen Allen.

In Saskatchewan, Liberal votes would have elected three more MPs, not just Ralph Goodale. Two from Saskatoon and North Saskatchewan like Tracy Muggli and indigenous leader Lawrence Joseph or Cynthia Block, and one from Regina and South Saskatchewan like Louis Browne or Della Anaquod.

In the BC Interior and North, Liberal votes would have elected two more MPs, like Tracy Calogheros from Prince George and Metis lawyer Karley Scott from West Kelowna or Steve Powrie from Kamloops.

On Vancouver Island, one or two more Liberal MPs like Victoria lawyer David Merner and Parksville city councillor Carrie Powell-Davidson or Campbell River’s Peter Schwarzhoff or Nanaimo’s Tim Tessier.

In Manitoba outside Winnipeg, two Liberal MPs like Brandon’s Jodi Wyman and Rebecca Chartrand.

In Windsor-Sarnia two more MPs like Chatham’s Katie Omstead and Windsor’s Frank Schiller or Sarnia’s Dave McPhail.

In the London and mid-western Ontario area one more MP like Huron’s Allan Thompson or Lori Baldwin-Sands from St. Thomas. 

In West Central Ontario two more Liberal MPs like Barrie’s Brian Tamblyn and Owen Sound’s Kimberley Love or Orillia's Liz Riley or Mike MacEachern from New Tecumseh or Trisha Cowie from Muskoka Lakes.

31 Missing diverse Conservative MPs

In Toronto, Conservative voters cast enough ballots to elect six MPs like Joe Oliver, Mark Adler, Marnie MacDougall, Bin Chang, John Carmichael and Joe Daniel or Maureen Harquail or Roxanne James.

In York Region two more Conservative MPs like Costas Menegakis and Konstantin Toubis or Julian Fantino or Lois Brown.

In Peel and Halton Regions, four Conservative MPs like Halton's Effie Triantafilopoulos, Mississauga’s Stella Ambler and Brad Butt, and Brampton’s Kyle Seeback.

In Ottawa-Cornwall another Conservative MP like Pierre Lemieux or Walter Pamic.

In Northern Ontario two Conservative MPs like Bryan Hayes and Greg Rickford or Jay Aspin. 

In Metropolitan Montreal, four Conservative MPs like Côte Saint-Luc architect Robert Libman, Laval architect Roland Dick (of Lebanese ancestry), Longueuil’s Afghan-born management expert Qais Hamidi, and Jonathan Lefebvre.

In Montérégie a Conservative MP such as Réjean Léveillé.

In Metro Vancouver, three more Conservative MPs like Andrew Saxton, former MLA Douglas Horne, and incumbent Wai Young or Kenny Chiu.

On Vancouver Island, one MP like John Duncan.

In Nova Scotia, incumbent Scott Armstrong and one more like Arnold LeBlanc or Michael McGinnis.

In New Brunswick, two  incumbents like Tilly O'Neill Gordon or or Robert Goguen and John Williamson or 
Rob Moore

In PEI, incumbent Gail Shea. In Newfoundland and Labrador, one MP like former provincial cabinet minister Kevin O'Brien. In the Yukon, Ryan Leef.

32 missing diverse NDP MPs

In the GTA, NDP voters cast enough ballots to elect eight MPs like incumbents Craig Scott, Peggy Nash, Andrew Cash, and Dan Harris, along with Oshawa’s Mary Fowler, Brampton’s Harbaljit Singh Kahlon, Newmarket’s Yvonne Kelly, and Mississauga’s Michelle Bilek or Milton's Alex Anabusi.

In Eastern Ontario, three MPs like incumbent Paul Dewar, new star Emilie Taman, and Peterborough’s Dave Nickle. In Northern Ontario, another MP like incumbent Claude Gravelle. In West Central Ontario, an MP like Kitchener's Susan Cadell or Waterloo’s Diane Freeman. In South Central Ontario, another MP like incumbent Malcolm Allen.

In Nova Scotia, two MPs like incumbent Megan Leslie and Dr. Monika Dutt. In Newfoundland and Labrador, an MP like incumbent Jack Harris. In New Brunswick, two MPs like Jason Godin and AJ Griffin. In PEI an MP like Joe Byrne or Herb Dickieson.

In Montreal, one more MP like incumbent Maria Mourani or Isabelle Morin or James Hughes. In the rest of Quebec, maybe six more like incumbents Annick Papillon and Raymond Côté in Quebec City, Philip Toone in the Gaspe, Hoang Mai in the Rive-sud, Pierre Dionne Labelle in Saint-Jérôme, and Mylène Freeman in Mirabel.

In Alberta, three more like Calgary’s Laura Weston, Cheryl Meheden from Lethbridge, and Edmonton’s Janis Irwin. In the NWT, incumbent Dennis Bevington. In Nunavut, former MP Jack Anawak.

Two missing Green MPs, but when their vote doubles, nine more

In BC, two more Green MPs like their Finance critic Ken Melamed and Arts, Culture and Heritage Critic Jo-Ann Roberts.

With PR, the Green vote will double, they expect, and I agree. That would let Green voters elect 12 MPs, enough for official party status. In Ontario, five Green MPs like Gord Miller from Guelph (
Infrastructure and Community Development critic), Thunder Bay's Bruce Hyer (Democratic Reform critic), Kemptville's Lorraine Rekmans (Indigenous Affairs critic),
Deborah Coyne from Ottawa, and Hamilton's Peter Ormond. In Manitoba, an MP like Environment & Climate Change critic Andrew Park. In BC, three more like Urban Affairs and Housing critic Wes Regan, and Arthur Green or Simmi Saminder Kaur Dhillon, and Bill Green or Chris George or Elizabeth Biggar. 

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