When Pierre Trudeau supported Proportional Representation

Many people don’t know Pierre Trudeau supported Proportional Representation in 1980. You can listen to him here:

https://www.cbc.ca/archives/when-pierre-trudeau-said-canada-needed-proportional-representation-1.5358177

Hearing Pierre Trudeau explain why he supported proportional representation, his reasons sound totally familiar 40 years later.

The Pépin-Robarts solution (now the Bélanger solution)

In the 1979 election, Liberals in Alberta cast 22% of the votes but elected zero members – in fact they had only one Liberal MP west of Winnipeg. The Liberals had no Saskatchewan MP after their young star Ralph Goodale lost his seat. And conversely, Joe Clark’s Progressive Conservative Party got 13% of the Quebec vote and only two members, and much the same for the NDP.

Pierre Trudeau said “I think we have to move in this direction because the national parties, even though they have many voters in all parts of Canada, don’t have sitting in Ottawa members of Parliament from that particular region on the government side. In the case of Mr. Clark’s government, he doesn’t have a lot of members and ministers in the house who could speak for Quebec, and in the case of our government we didn’t have a lot of members or ministers who could speak for Alberta. You are aware, of course, that the Pépin-Robarts Committee also recommended something along those lines.” 

The Pépin-Robarts Commission

“To move in the direction of proportional representation” was the solution recommended by the Pépin-Roberts Commission Jan. 25, 1979. That Commission (the “Task Force on Canadian Unity”) was multi-partisan, co-chaired by former Ontario Conservative Premier John Robarts. They proposed electing an additional 60 MPs to the House of Commons to top-up the results from each province, keeping the present ridings.

Trudeau did not endorse it right away. The 1979 election was held May 22. Pierre Trudeau’s government lost its majority, even though they actually got more votes than the PCs. Even the Liberals and NDP combined were 2 seats short of a majority. Trudeau resigned as PM June 3 and announced his resignation as Liberal leader Nov. 21. Three days later, speaking at the University of Montreal, he endorsed the Pépin-Robarts recommendation to give each province fair representation from voters for each party. When Joe Clark then lost a confidence vote, Pierre Trudeau withdrew his resignation and was re-elected Prime Minister Feb. 18, 1980. Earlier that February he told CBC he still supported the Pépin-Robarts recommendation.

Those additional 60 MPs would (in 1979) have included 23 Liberal MPs, 17 from the West: 3 from Alberta, 3 from Saskatchewan, 6 more from BC where they had only 1, 3 from the Territories,.and 2 more from Manitoba, plus 4 more from Ontario, I more from Nova Scotia, and 1 from PEI. PC voters would have elected 7 more MPs from Quebec. NDP voters would have elected MPs from Quebec, New Brunswick and Alberta, and more from other provinces.

The actual 1979 election result was PCs 136, Liberals 114, NDP 26, Creditistes 6. With the additional 60 provincial MPs, the results would have been 137 Liberals, 143 PCs, 51 New Democrats, and 11 Creditistes. With 172 seats needed for a majority, the Liberals would have had to work with the NDP as they did from 1972 to 1974, or even form a coalition government. A perfectly proportional result with 342 MPs would have been 140 Liberals, 125 PCs, 62 New Democrats, and 15 Creditistes, but the governmental outcome would have been the same either way. 

Pierre’s same reasons apply today

Today, 40 years later, the Prime Minister should make his father’s argument, since the Liberals once again have no MPs from Alberta and Saskatchewan, after their Saskatchewan veteran Ralph Goodale once again lost his seat.

With the House of Commons larger now, the Pépin-Roberts recommendation could be for 72 more MPs. But even 60 more MPs, or even a modest 42 MPs, is worth looking at.

It’s a semi-proportional solution: keep the present riding boundaries, and add some additional MPs to top-up the results from each province or region. These extra MPs will give all parties MPs from each region. They will make every vote count to some extent, and will also make accidental majority governments far less likely.

It could be permanent. Or it could be a fast solution, while the discussion continues about whether to adopt full proportional representation, how a PR model for Canada would work, and whether a Citizens Assembly on Electoral Reform is a better way to settle these questions than holding a referendum?

Can an expansion of the House be justified? In fact, it is inevitable. After the next census, the smaller provinces will have their present seats protected again, while the growing large provinces will be entitled to more MPs. This resulted in 30 more MPs in 2015. The next census will have a similar result, maybe even more. 

The Bélanger Solution

A modest 42 additional MPs is the number of additional MPs the late Mauril Bélanger liked. He was MP for Ottawa-Vanier for 21 years, one of the Liberal MP supporters of proportional representation, and the man whose bill changed "in all thy sons command" to "in all of us command." 

Does the Bélanger solution work?

Is 42 extra MPs really enough? Would it have prevented a Harper false majority in 2011? Checking the 2011 results, those 42 MPs would have been 17 Liberals, 12 New Democrats, 3 Greens, 5 Bloc, and 5 Conservatives (from Atlantic Canada and Quebec). Harper would have had 171 MPs out of 350, four short of half.

More about the Belanger solution here.

 

What would the 2020 BC election result have been under proportional representation?

The MMP system preferred by the majority of PR supporters in the 2018 referendum had a threshold of 5% for voters for a party to elect top-up MLAs. So I’ll start with the three parties which got more than that threshold.

The NDP got 49.4% of the three-party vote, almost enough for a majority, but my projection shows them with 43 of the 87 seats, one short of a majority. However, NDP voters would have been better represented in the Interior and North.

Note: this is only a simulation

In any election, as Prof. Dennis Pilon says: "Now keep in mind that, when you change the voting system, you also change the incentives that affect the kinds of decisions that voters might make. For instance, we know that, when every vote counts, voters won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or casting a strategic vote. Thus, we should expect that support for different parties might change."

Better regional representation

In the 14 seats of the Interior (including Kamloops—Thompson but not Cariboo), NDP voters would have elected six MLAs rather than four. That might have included Sadie Hunter from Kamloops and Aaron Sumexheltza from Fraser—Nicola (the Lower Nicola Indian Band), or maybe Toni Boot from Penticton or Nicole Cherlet from Revelstoke. The winners would be the regional NDP candidates who got the most votes (other than those who had won local seats), so my examples are those who had gotten the highest percent of the vote.

The Interior would have elected eight local MPs from larger ridings, and six regional MLAs for top-up seats: six Liberals, six New Democrats, and two Greens. Green voters might have elected Nicole Charlwood from Nelson and Amanda Poon from Kelowna, or Andrew Duncan from Rossland or Dan Hines from Kamloops. I have used the “largest remainder” calculation, which Germany used until recently, because it is the simplest and most transparent. If Party A gets 6.4 seats and Party B gets 5.6 seats, who gets the 12^th seat? Party B.

In the ten Northern seats NDP voters would have elected four MLAs, not just two. That might have included Nicole Halbauer from Terrace and Kitsumkalum First Nation (Skeena) and Scott Elliott from Quesnel (Cariboo North), or Anne Marie Sam from Nechako Lakes and Nak’azdli Band, or Joan Atkinson, Mayor of Mackenzie District (Prince George—Mackenzie). Green voters would have elected someone like MacKenzie Kerr from Prince George. The North would still have ten MLAs (six local, four regional MLAs for top-up seats).

Liberal voters would have elected 31 MLAs, only 3 more than the 2020 result, but they would have elected 17 MLAs from the Lower Mainland instead of only 10, and they would have elected 3 MLAs from Vancouver Island instead of none at all.

Green voters would have elected 13 MLAs. Three from the 16 ridings of Vancouver-North Shore, such as Jeremy Valeriote from Whistler, Bridget Burns from East Vancouver, and Kelly Tatham from Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, or Kim Darwin from Sechelt, or Ian Goldman from Vancouver-Fairview. One from Burnaby-Tri-Cities-Maple Ridge such as Cyrus Sy from New Westminster. One from Surrey-Delta-Richmond like Peter van der Velden from Delta or Beverly (Pixie) Hobby from Surrey, a former NDP candidate. One from the eight ridings of Fraser Valley-Langley such as Abbotsford’s Aird Flavelle or Langley’s Cheryl Wiens. Two more from Vancouver Island like Victoria school trustee Nicole Duncan, Annemieke Holthuis or Jenn Neilson in Victoria, or Chris Istace from North Cowichan, two from the Interior (see above) and one from the North (see above). 

Why do the Greens get only 13 MLAs? Province-wide, they might deserve 13.59, while the Liberals deserve 30.43. But the Liberals do better in the North which is over-represented to give sparsely populated areas and indigenous minorities fair representation, while the Greens ran only four candidates in those ten ridings, giving a slight edge to the Liberals. This MMP model has 52 local MLAs, and 35 regional MLAs for top-up seats.

Who would be the government?

The projected result is 43 NDP, 31 Liberals, 13 Greens. With the NDP one short of a majority, I assume the NDP would have continued to govern with a confidence and support agreement with the Greens, as they did since 2017.  A coalition government might be even better, but many Green MLAs say they will not be bound to vote along party lines, making it difficult for them to be part of a government whose measures have to be sustained by a majority of MLAs for four years. (They did vote confidence in the NDP government from 2017 to 2020, but that's not quite the same thing.) A Liberal-Green coalition government would not likely be workable. 

What about the BC Conservatives?

The BC Conservative Party ran only 19 candidates in the 87 ridings, so they got only 1.9% of the vote, but at that rate a full slate would have gotten 8.7%. Furthermore, to repeat, when every vote counts, voters won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or casting a strategic vote. So the BC Conservatives would have cast enough votes to elect some MLAs. Even with the few votes cast for those 19, if you ignore the threshold they got enough votes to elect their leader Trevor Bolin in the North, one in the Interior like party Vice-President Darryl Seres in Osoyoos or Kyle Delfing in Vernon, and one in Fraser Valley-Langley like former Liberal Diane Janzen in Chiliwack or party past-President Ryan Warawa in Langley.

Why think about proportional representation in BC after the referendum outcome?

Polling evidence is clear: A simple pro-rep question could have won. It's clear that some potential supporters voted against PR because they did not feel informed enough, or perceived the whole process unacceptable, or found the options unclear or unconvincing, or found the questions confusing, or feared MLAs being appointed from party lists, or they were just afraid to vote for "the mystery box.” The survey shows that large majorities of British Columbians support basic PR concepts. More details here.

Time for Canada’s NDP to move electoral reform forward

Justin Trudeau’s broken promise to make every vote count cost the Liberals their majority last year. It’s time for the NDP to act on their policy, adopted two years ago, that the NDP would make proportional representation a condition for support for any minority government.

As many sources report, many Liberal MPs are quietly saying they know this issue cost them many of the young voters they picked up in 2015, which in turn cost them their majority.

Common ground

Of course Justin Trudeau will resist reversing himself 180 degrees overnight. But the electoral reform process ended in 2017 with the Liberal members stating “we recommend that the Government further undertake a period of comprehensive and effective citizen engagement before proposing specific changes to the current federal voting system. We believe that this engagement process cannot be effectively completed before 2019.” The NDP platform in 2019 promised “We’ll establish an independent citizen’s assembly to recommend the best way to put it in place.” So there is common ground on how to move forward on this issue.

Parties should work together

During the pandemic, everyone wants parties to work together, just as parties generally do in countries with proportional representation. But if the Liberals are tempted to roll the dice and try for a majority, and refuse to engage citizens about Justin’s broken promise, the NDP should be ready.

Ranked Ballots are off the table

Justin Trudeau said it himself on Feb. 10, 2017: "I always felt that we could offer people to give a preference on your ballot. To rank your ballot. A lot of people don’t like it. A lot of people say it favours Liberals. I have heard very clearly that people don’t think that’s a good thing, or that they think it would favour Liberals too much. And therefore I’m not going near it, because I am not going to do something that everyone is convinced is going to favour one party over another.”

Not even the Liberal ERRE minority report recommend the ranked ballot. When the media asked why, the ERRE chair, Liberal Francis Scarpaleggia, said bluntly “nobody wants ranked ballots.”

I admit I could not have said it better.  So only proportional representation will make every vote count.

National NDP Policy

In February 2018 the NDP national convention passed overwhelmingly a resolution that:

"That the New Democratic Party of Canada reiterate its support for Mixed Member Proportional Representation and ensure that Mixed Member Proportional Representation be given a high profile in the NDP platform in the next federal election.

And that an NDP majority government will bring in proportional representation in time for the next election. In a minority parliament, the NDP would make proportional representation a condition for any potential alliance, or for support for any minority government." The arguments leading the convention to support this were Jagmeet’s own arguments, his statements during the leadership campaign and since. After three speakers on each side, it passed overwhelmingly. The resolution had been submitted to the Convention by 15 NDP riding associations across Canada.

Every MP will face the voters

In the past six years I have heard no New Democrat support a model with closed party lists. As the Law Commission of Canada recommended in 2004, "Based on the feedback received during our consultation process, many Canadian voters would also most likely desire the flexibility of open lists in a mixed member proportional system. In essence, allowing voters to choose a candidate from the list provides voters with the ability to select a specific individual and hold them accountable for their actions should they be elected."

The broken promise cost them their majority

In at least 16 ridings in 2015 the Liberal stick (Stop Harper) and carrot (this is the last time you will have to vote strategically and be represented by your second choice) had picked up enough Green and NDP votes for a Liberal candidate to pick up a seat. That includes some new voters who would have voted NDP or Green but switched to Liberal. Millennials were especially attracted by the pledge “we will make every vote count.”

The 2019 stick (Stop Scheer) held a few of those switchers, but with the carrot vanished, and the promises of “Sunny Ways” losing their shine, enough of those Green and NDP votes went back to the Greens or NDP to sink the Liberal in these 16 ridings. They fell 13 short of a majority.

The average in these 16 ridings was this: in 2015 the Liberals picked up about 5,200 votes from the NDP and about 700 from the Green Party. That’s about 5,900 mostly young voters. In 2019 they lost about 3,300 of them on average to the NDP and Greens. In each of these ridings that swing cost the Liberals the seat.

Four Liberal losses were to the NDP, Green or an Independent advocating proportional representation: St. John's East, Winnipeg Centre, Fredericton, and Vancouver Granville. The other 12 were to a Conservative: Calgary Centre, Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley, Kildonan—St. Paul, Northumberland—Peterborough South, Hastings—Lennox & Addington, Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, Steveston—Richmond East, Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon, Kelowna—Lake Country, Fundy Royal, New Brunswick Southwest, and Tobique—Mactaquac.

By contrast, in Beaches—East York Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith had won in 2015 on the same promise, but voted in the House for electoral reform, breaking ranks with the party. He won last fall with an increased majority.

BC Referendum

PR-sceptics may respond "the loss of the BC referendum changes things." But my own conclusion from polling data is "Thousands of electoral reformers spent six months defending the process and how it was arrived at. It’s hard to admit that the process was the problem. But the polling evidence is clear. With a referendum on first-past-the-post versus a fully fleshed-out alternative, designed and explained via deep public consultation, PR would have won. Reformers should not be afraid to say so." 

Making every vote count: the Bélanger solution

The Bélanger solution

Looking at the Canadian scene today, what Liberal can tolerate thinking of an accidental majority Conservative government elected by 40% of voters? 

Anyone who forgets Stephen Harper in 2011 cannot forget that Doug Ford did so in 2018.

Liberal Convention delegates in 2014 voted overwhelmingly for Resolution 31 from the federal caucus for electoral reform: a preferential ballot and/or a form of proportional representation. The preferential ballot is off the table: As Justin Trudeau wisely said Feb. 10, 2017, ”I have heard very clearly that people think it would favour Liberals too much. And therefore I’m not going near it, because I am not going to do something that everyone is convinced is going to favour one party over another.” And anyway, it would never pass the present House, no other party would support it.

Can an accidental Conservative majority be prevented quickly and simply? Without a completely new system with new riding boundaries? A fast solution while the discussion continues about whether to adopt full proportional representation, how a PR model for Canada would work, and whether a Citizens Assembly on Electoral Reform is a better way to settle these questions than holding a referendum?

How about a semi-proportional solution: keep the present ridings, and add 42 regional MPs to top-up the results from each region? These 42 extra MPs will not only make accidental majority governments far less likely, they would also make every vote count to some extent, and give all parties MPs from each region.

This 42 is the number of additional MPs the late Mauril Bélanger liked. He was MP for Ottawa-Vanier for 21 years, one of the Liberal MP supporters of proportional representation, and the man whose bill changed "in all thy sons command" to "in all of us command." :

It’s a moderate number: 60 additional MPs were recommended by "A Future Together," the report of the Pepin-Robarts Commission (Task Force on Canadian Unity) in 1979. Pierre Trudeau called this “an excellent idea.”

A “national conversation?”

That isn’t just a partisan fix. How can we have a "national conversation" in Parliament when more than half our voices are shut out? When some voices get a megaphone - such as Conservatives occupying every seat in Saskatchewan and Liberals occupying every seat in Toronto - while others are silenced? In 2019, this model would have let voters for every major party elect MPs from each province except PEI, and Greens elect MPs from five provinces.

Does the Bélanger solution work?

Is 42 extra MPs really enough? Would it have prevented a Harper false majority in 2011? Checking the 2011 results, those 42 MPs would have been 17 Liberals, 12 New Democrats, 3 Greens, 5 Bloc, and 5 Conservatives (from Atlantic Canada and Quebec). Harper would have had 171 MPs out of 350, four short of half.

I’m assuming the 42 MPs are divided among the provinces in proportion to their present numbers of MPs. My 2011 simulation generates two Liberal regional MPs from the BC Lower Mainland, one from the rest of BC, one from Northern Alberta, one from Southern Alberta, one from Manitoba, two from Southwest Ontario, two from South Central Ontario, one from Peel-Halton, two from Toronto, two from Northern and Central Ontario, one from Central and Western Quebec, and one from Eastern Quebec.

Can an expansion of the House be justified? In fact, it is inevitable. After the next census, the smaller provinces will have their present seats protected, while the growing large provinces will be entitled to more MPs. This resulted in 30 more MPs in 2015. The next census will have a similar result, maybe even more.

The same ballot, with best runners-up? or open-list?

With 20 regions, they each have an average of 17 local MPs and 2 regional MPs. One alternative, keeping our present ballot, is to elect the one or two local candidates of the under-represented party who got the highest vote percent without winning. That’s the “best runners-up” model used by the German province of Baden-Wurttemberg and by Sweden. Or, like a normal Mixed Member Proportional system, we could elect the regional MPs from open regional lists. With the two-vote ballot you vote for your local MP, and you also vote for your favourite regional candidate of the party you want to see in government. This option makes regional MPs almost as accountable as under the 30 regions possible with normal MMP.

An immediate solution

There must be many Liberal MPs who will like this. Not because of how it would have worked in 2019 (six more Liberal MPs from the West: Ralph Goodale, Randy Boissonnault, Amarjeet Sohi, Nirmala Naidoo (Calgary) or Kent Hehr, Stephen Fuhr, and Nikki Macdonald or Mary Ann Murphy), but because it would provide a good chance that no accidental majority government will result from the next election.

(Note: revised Nov. 30, 2020)