Nova Scotia 2024 election

 Nova Scotia voters elected a diverse legislature this week – but not as diverse as they deserved.

Tim Houston’s huge majority PC government got 43 of the 55 seats, with 78% of the MLAs, based on only 52.8% of the votes. The new opposition leader, Claudia Chender, leads an NDP caucus with nine MLAs, featuring seven women, including two newly elected women and two newly elected men, eight from Halifax, and one from Cape Breton. The decimated Liberals dropped from 17 MLAs to only two, one in Halifax, one in Cape Breton.

As Nova Scotia’s 2019 Boundary Commission report recommended:
“Recommendation 8: Although it is outside our mandate, we respectfully recommend that future governments consider consulting the public and elections experts about whether a proportional system would achieve more effective representation than our current single-member plurality (first past the post) system.”

Nova Scotia is more than just Halifax and Cape Breton.

In the 14 ridings of southwest Nova Scotia, including Kentville and Wolfville (home of Acadia University in Kings County), Bridgewater and Yarmouth, Liberal voters cast 26.7% of the votes. Under the Mixed Member Proportional system they would have elected four MLAs. Their four best runners-up were leader Zach Churchill in Yarmouth, incumbent MLA Carman Kerr in Annapolis County, incumbent MLA Ronnie LeBlanc in Clare, and Brian Casey, a West Hants farmer. NDP voters cast 13.1% of the votes and would have elected two MLAs: their best runners-up were former cabinet minister Ramona Jennex in Kings County and Kentville Town Councillor Gillian Yorke.

In the 11 ridings of Nova Scotia’s North Shore (Truro, New Glasgow, and Amherst), NDP voters cast 14.1% of the votes and would have elected two MLAs: their best runners-up were former local journalist Abby Cameron in Hants East and two-time candidate Janet Moulton in Musquodoboit Valley. Liberal voters cast 13.9% of the votes and would have elected two MLAs: their best runners-up were retired nurse Sheila Sears in Antigonish and New Glasgow musician Kris MacFarlane.

In the 22 Halifax ridings, Liberal voters cast 23.6% of the votes and would have elected four more MLAs. Their best runners-up were former Liberal cabinet ministers Patricia Arab and Ben Jessome, and MLAs Braedon Clark and Ali Duale.

In the eight ridings of Cape Breton, Liberal voters cast 25.1% of the votes and would have elected a second MLA. Their best runner-up was Jamie Beaton, born and raised in Inverness.

This assumes the Mixed Member Proportional system used in Germany, New Zealand, Scotland, and others. Usually it would still have 56 or 60 percent of the MLAs elected from local ridings. With the model recommended by the Law Commission of Canada, using the ballot PEI voters supported in their 2016 plebiscite, you have two votes, one for your local MLA, and one for the party you support. Your second vote helps elect regional MLAs for top-up seats. In New Zealand, about 31% of voters vote for a local candidate of a different party than their party vote, giving local MPs an independent base of support.

Of course, this is only a simulation. In any election, as Prof. Dennis Pilon says: "Now keep in mind that, when you change the voting system, you also change the incentives that affect the kinds of decisions that voters might make. For instance, we know that, when every vote counts, voters won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or casting a strategic vote. Thus, we should expect that support for different parties might change."