The turnout for the Liberal leadership election was quite variable

 The turnout for the Liberal leadership election was quite variable:

https://chefferie2025leadership.liberal.ca/results/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

In many regions this will be a polarizing election, where voters will vote Liberal or NDP to stop Poilievre. I have identified 15 ridings where the low Liberal leadership turnout may well presage success for the NDP.

For example, in Ontario, look at Humber River-Black Creek, which the NDP narrowly held in the recent provincial election on a turnout of only 35%, held federally by Liberal Judy Sgro (age 80) who is running again. Only 140 Liberals voted in this highly ethnic riding. Yet in Marco Mendicino’s Eglinton—Lawrence 860 Liberals voted. The Canada-wide average was 443.

NDP-held Windsor West saw only 304 Liberal voters; they ran no candidate provincially, and do not yet have a federal candidate. Look at London West: it had only 294 Liberal voters, even though its MP just made the cabinet, but provincially, its Liberals got only 11% against NDP MPP Peggy Sattler, while nearby London Fanshawe is NDP-held. The London West NDP has countered Liberal Arielle Kayabaga by nominating Shinade Allder; she is the first Black Chair of Unifor’s Ontario Regional Council.

See the new Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk where the NDP candidate Nicole Fortier Levesque has a transposed majority of 35.79% (mostly inherited from Charlie Angus) and the Liberals do not yet have a candidate: in the leadership race it had only 227 Liberal voters. And see the new Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt, where the NDP stood second by (transposed) 846 votes in 2021, and 2021 candidate Andréane Chénier is running a strong campaign against Liberal Marc Serré. It had 302 Liberal voters, compared with 555 in Sudbury.

In Oshawa, 397 Liberal voters turned out; not bad, but well below Whitby’s 599 or Pickering—Brooklin’s 602.  Oshawa saw the Ontario Liberals get only 9% of the vote this year; looks like another NDP-Conservative battle.

Thunder Bay-Rainy River saw only 314 Liberal voters. They have a talented MP, aged 65, who has been overshadowed by his neighbour Patty Hajdu. The 2021 NDP candidate was a very close third and is running again.

In the one NDP seat in Quebec, Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie, only 188 Liberal supporters voted. Yet in the Liberal stronghold of Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount, 957 voted. What about Papineau, next-door to Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie, a potential NDP gain with Trudeau no longer running there, replaced by a parachute from the PMO? Only 195 Liberals voted. And in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, where the NDP came 374 votes behind the Liberal in the by-election last year, only 282 Liberals voted; NDP Craig Sauvé is standing again while the Liberals have not yet nominated.

In Manitoba, in Niki Ashton’s riding of Churchill—Keewatinook Aski (with no Liberal candidate) they had only 45 Liberal voters. In NDP-held Elmwood-Transcona we find 234 Liberal votes, and 294 in NDP-held Winnipeg Centre. Compared these with nearby Winnipeg South, riding of minister Terry Duguid, where Liberals got 437 voters.

In Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby, where the NDP has a transposed vote of 31.1%, Harjit Sajjan is not running again, and Liberals saw only 292 votes. Yet in North Vancouver-Capilano where BC’s sole minister Jonathan Wilkinson hopes to be re-elected, they saw 940 votes. In Randeep Sarai’s Surrey Centre, where the NDP stood second, Liberals saw only 178 votes. In Surrey-Newton where Sukh Dhaliwal seeks re-election, again with the NDP second, they saw only 207 votes.

If every vote counted, who would Ontario voters have elected in 2025?

Doug Ford’s PC voters cast 43.0% of the votes in Ontario’s 2025 election, but elected 64.5% of the MPPs, holding 100% of the power, a blank cheque. Proportional representation would have given them only 55 of the 124 MPPs (44.4%), assuming a threshold of 4% for a party to win seats.

If we had used province-wide proportionality the results would have been: 55 PC, 38 Lib, 24 NDP, 6 Green, and 1 independent.

But wait a minute: 24, when the NDP actually won 27? Doesn’t PR usually help the NDP? Yes, although as Thomas Mulcair explained in the 2015 campaign:
“Had the 2011 election used proportional representation, despite the NDP’s electoral gains, New Democrats would have actually had fewer seats in Parliament. Even still, we believe that democratic reform is critical to improving the health of Canada’s democracy. For New Democrats, it’s a matter of principle. Proportional representation would better represent Canadians across the country.”

In 2022 the Ontario NDP won 23.7% of the vote, but in 2025 only 18.5%. If you look at the seats the NDP actually won, you see an average turnout of 47.9%. The NDP missed winning Sault Ste. Marie by only 114 votes, with a turnout of 49.6%. But provincewide, only 45.4% of eligible voters cast ballots, 2.5% less. A lot of NDP voters stayed home where they didn’t see much chance of winning.  Voter turnout in countries with proportional representation is usually 7% or 8% higher. So the NDP’s higher turnout would give them more than the 18.5% of the vote they won, so more than 24 seats, in fact, more than the 27 seats they actually won. Looking at my simulation, NDP voters would have elected more MPPs in the three regions (out of eight) where they are now under-represented.

But the big winners would have been the Liberals. Curiously, some of them has been reluctant to support proportional representation.

Let’s see what would happen using the mixed-member proportional system (used in Germany, New Zealand and Scotland). Using eight regions, the regions would have an average of 15 MPPs each (nine local MPPs, six regional MPPs elected to top-up seats).

Open-list MMP

We’re not talking about a model with candidates appointed by central parties. We’re talking about the mixed member system designed by the Law Commission of Canada and endorsed by the Ontario NDP Convention in 2014, where every MPP represents actual voters and real communities. The majority of MPPs will be elected by local ridings as we do today, preserving the traditional link between voter and MPP. The other 40% are elected as regional MPPs, topping-up the numbers of MPPs from your local region so the total is proportional to the votes for each party.

You have two votes. One is for your local MPP. The second helps elect regional MPPs for the top-up seats. All MPPs have faced the voters. No one is guaranteed a seat. The region is small enough that the regional MPPs are accountable.

With open-list, the ballot would look like this ballot that PEI voters chose in their 2016 plebiscite. Unlike the closed-list MMP model Ontario voters did not support in 2007, you can cast a personal vote for a candidate within the regional list. This is commonly called “open list.”

Competing MPPs:

You have a local MPP who will champion your community, and about five competing regional MPPs, normally including one whose views best reflect your values, someone you helped elect in your local district or local region.

Surveys show Ontario voters support PR

More than three-in-five voters (62%) think Ontario should implement a system of proportional representation for provincial elections, up four points since 2022. What is striking about the findings this year is that voters aged 35-to-54 are more likely to desire a different system (67%) than their counterparts aged 18-to-34 (61%) and aged 55 and over (58%). In any case, we have majorities across all age groups who openly wonder whether a party should have so much control of the legislature with fewer than 50 per cent of all cast ballots.

How would regional MPPs serve residents?

See how it has worked in Scotland.

Note: this is only a simulation

In any election, as Prof. Dennis Pilon says: "Now keep in mind that, when you change the voting system, you also change the incentives that affect the kinds of decisions that voters might make. For instance, we know that, when every vote counts, voters won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or casting a strategic vote. Thus, we should expect that support for different parties might change." For this simulation I am assuming that Ontario still has only 124 MPPs.

In these local simulations, for the names of regional MPPs I use the local candidates who got the most votes in the region without winning the local seat. I expect they would be the most likely winners under open-list MMP. 

In Toronto and York’s 35 ridings, Liberal voters would have elected six more MPPs, such as Vince Gasparro (Eglinton-Lawrence), John Campbell (Etobicoke Centre), Chris Ballard (Newmarket-Aurora), Kelly Dunn (Markham-Stouffville), Holly Rasky (Toronto Centre) and April Engelberg (Spadina--Fort York). Green Party voters would have elected an MPP such as Jennifer Baron in York-Simcoe. NDP voters would have elected six MPPs. PC voters would have elected 15 MPPs.

In Peel Region’s 12 ridings, Liberal voters would have elected four or five MPPs, such as Bonnie Crombie, Elizabeth Mendes, Jill Promoli and Qasir Dar. NDP voters would have elected an MPP, such as George Nakitsas, Martin Singh or Ruby Zaman. The PCs would have elected six or seven MPPs.

In Central South’s (Hamilton--Niagara--Brantford--Halton) 15 ridings, Liberal voters would have elected four MPPs, such as Andrea Grebenc and Kaniz Mouli (Burlington), Alison Gohel (Oakville), and maybe Kristina Tesser Derksen (Milton) or Heino Doessing (Hamilton East-Stoney Creek). Green Party voters would have elected an MPP, such as Karleigh Csordas (Brantford). NDP voters would have elected three MPPs, PC voters six MPPs, and Independent Bobbi Ann Brady would have been re-elected.

In Central West’s (Waterloo--Simcoe) 14 ridings, Liberal voters would have elected four MPPs, such as Rose Zacharias (Barrie), Ted Crysler (Collingwood), Rob Deutschmann (Cambridge), and Alex Hilson (Halton Hills). NDP voters would have elected a second MPP, such as Jodi Szimanski (Wellesley Township, Waterloo Region). Green Party voters would still have elected two MPPs. PC voters would have elected six MPPs.

In Southwest Ontario’s 12 ridings, Liberal voters would have elected two MPPs, such as Douglas MacTavish (Elgin) and Cathy Burghardt-Jesson (Middlesex). Green Party voters would have elected an MPP, such as Stratford’s Ian Morton. NDP voters would have elected three MPPs, and PC voters would have elected six MPPs.

In East Central Ontario’s (Durham--Kingston) 13 ridings, Liberal voters would have elected three more MPPs, such as Peterborough’s Adam Hopkins, Whitby’s Roger Gordon, and Pickering’s Ibrahim Daniyal. NDP voters would have elected a second MPP, such as Peterborough’s Jen Deck. PC voters would have elected six MPPs.

In Ottawa-Cornwall’s 11 ridings, the results would have been very similar to the actual result.

In Northern Ontario’s 12 ridings, Liberal voters would have elected two MPPs, such as Thunder Bay’s Stephen Margarit and Algoma’s Reg Niganobe. NDP voters would have elected five MPPs, as would PC voters.

(Note: since this simulation uses eight regions, the Green party elected only five MPPs, rather than the six which provincewide proportionality would give them.)

An election today would give the Conservatives 100% of the power on 44% of the votes.

 The “338 Canada” website, featuring polling and electoral projections, projects that an election today would let Conservative voters elect 232 of Canada’s 343 MPs. With only 44% of the votes they would elect 68% of the MPs and hold 100% of the power. The Official Opposition would be the Bloc Québécois with 45 MPs.

The simplest model of proportional representation would just pair up today’s local ridings, and top up the results by electing regional MPs so that each party gets the share of the seats that its voters deserve. You have two votes. You cast your second vote for one of your party’s regional candidates. This vote would count as a vote for that candidate’s party. It would help elect region-wide candidates for top-up seats. The ballot would look like this sample from the PEI plebiscite in 2016 when PEI voters voted for MMP, the system used in Germany, New Zealand, and Scotland. In the four large provinces, that could be about 10 regional candidates. In the smaller provinces, maybe an average of 5 regional candidates.

Using the same “338” website riding projections as of Dec. 31, calculated over 20 regions, I project a simulated result of 159 Conservative MPs, 77 Liberals, 71 New Democrats, 29 Bloc, and 7 Greens.

Why would Liberal candidates in Liberal strongholds agree to give up nominations in half the ridings? To stop Pierre Poilievre winning a false majority.  Generally, candidates could remain nominated for the double-sized riding, but in case of overlap, I expect one of the two candidates would become a regional-only candidate, unless there is a nearby vacant nomination available. Local decision.

I am using 6 regions across Ontario, 4 across Quebec, and 2 in each of BC and Alberta, with an average region size of 20. The six smaller provinces have an average size of 10 MPs each. The 3 Territories are unchanged. (A Citizens Assembly on Electoral Reform might decide a more representative Parliament needs more representatives, and the Law Commission of Canada would have given each Territory a second MP, but for simplicity I have left the number of MPs unchanged.)

With 177 local MPs and 166 regional or provincial MPs from top-up seats, the projected result is perfectly proportional. (I had one region in my projection with a bonus, the 18-MP Island of Montreal, because my initial pairings gave the NDP and Bloc each only 1 of the 9 paired seats, but the corrected pairings give the NDP two of the paired seats.) 

Could this really happen in 2025? Highly unlikely. The Liberals would have to elect a new leader who could reach a fast agreement with the NDP for quick implementation of this model. Each province would need quick Citizens Commissions to agree on the region boundaries, and on the pairings of the new ridings (already designed by the independent Electoral Boundaries Commissions in each province); and also the four cases where an odd number of ridings in the province would mean one riding remains unpaired, as Labrador obviously would. Elections Canada would complain they need more time to set up the new processes. As I said, unlikely to happen.  

A Liberal-NDP agreement on quick PR might imply coalition-building and co-operation could be offered to voters ahead of time, as they are in other countries. Why not?