The “338 Canada” website, featuring polling and electoral projections, projects that an election today would let Conservative voters elect 232 of Canada’s 343 MPs. With only 44% of the votes they would elect 68% of the MPs and hold 100% of the power. The Official Opposition would be the Bloc Québécois with 45 MPs.
The simplest model of proportional representation would just
pair up today’s local ridings, and top up the results by electing
regional MPs so that each party gets the share of the seats that
its voters deserve. You have two votes. You cast your second vote for one of your
party’s regional candidates. This vote would count as a vote for that candidate’s
party. It would help elect region-wide candidates for top-up seats. The ballot
would look like this
sample from the PEI plebiscite in 2016 when PEI voters voted for MMP, the system
used in Germany, New Zealand, and Scotland. In the four large provinces, that could
be about 10 regional candidates. In the smaller provinces, maybe an average of
5 regional candidates.
Using the same “338” website riding projections as of Dec.
31, calculated over 20 regions, I project a simulated result of 159 Conservative MPs, 77 Liberals, 71 New Democrats, 29 Bloc, and 7 Greens.
Why would Liberal candidates in Liberal strongholds agree to
give up nominations in half the ridings? To stop Pierre Poilievre winning a
false majority. Generally, candidates
could remain nominated for the double-sized riding, but in case of overlap, I
expect one of the two candidates would become a regional-only candidate, unless
there is a nearby vacant nomination available. Local decision.
I am using 6 regions across Ontario, 4 across Quebec, and 2
in each of BC and Alberta, with an average region size of 20. The six smaller
provinces have an average size of 10 MPs each. The 3 Territories are unchanged.
(A Citizens Assembly on
Electoral Reform might decide a more representative Parliament needs more
representatives, and the Law
Commission of Canada would have given each Territory a second MP, but for
simplicity I have left the number of MPs unchanged.)
With 177 local MPs and 166 regional or provincial MPs from top-up seats, the projected result is perfectly proportional. (I had one region in my projection with a bonus, the 18-MP Island of Montreal, because my initial pairings gave the NDP and Bloc each only 1 of the 9 paired seats, but the corrected pairings give the NDP two of the paired seats.)
Could this really happen in 2025? Highly unlikely. The
Liberals would have to elect a new leader who could reach a fast agreement with
the NDP for quick implementation of this model. Each province would need quick
Citizens Commissions to agree on the region boundaries, and on the pairings of
the new ridings (already designed by the independent Electoral Boundaries
Commissions in each province); and also the four cases where an odd number of
ridings in the province would mean one riding remains unpaired, as Labrador
obviously would. Elections Canada would complain they need more time to set up
the new processes. As I said, unlikely to happen.
