How many NDP and Liberal MPs should Alberta have

In Heather McPherson’s campaign launch she said Blake Desjarlais should be a Member of Parliament today, and Trisha Estabrooks, and so many others should be Members of Parliament.

Of course, strategic voting to stop Trump took many votes from the NDP. But even if the NDP had gotten the votes it got in 2021, in Alberta First Past The Post would have elected only Heather and Blake. We need to talk about the Mixed Member Proportional system the NDP promises to introduce.

On the votes cast in 2021, transposed to the 2025 ridings, in the 12 ridings of Metropolitan Edmonton the NDP got 28.6% of the vote, and the Liberals 18.9%. With a regional MMP model the NDP would indeed have elected Heather, Blake, and Trisha, and maybe even Dot Anderson. The Liberals would have elected Eleanor Olszewski and Amarjeet Sohi.

But that’s not all. In the 12 ridings of Metropolitan Calgary the NDP’s 16.6% would have elected candidates like Keira Gunn and Becki Zimmerman, while the Liberals would have elected Corey Hogan, George Chahal and Lindsay Luhnau.

In the 8 ridings of South-Central Alberta the NDP’s 15.5% would have elected Nathan Svoboda, while the Liberals would have elected Chris Spearman.

And in the 5 ridings of Northern Alberta, the NDP’s 14.9% would have elected someone like Landen Tischer. Total out of 37: 7 or 8 NDP, 6 Liberals.

Alberta sends 37 MPs to Ottawa. That`s 10.8 per cent of the MPs. They might expect three members of a 30-member cabinet. But they elected only two Liberal MPs, due to First-Past-The-Post: Corey Hogan and Eleanor Olszewski. 

With the Mixed Member Proportional system. Alberta would elect 22 local MPs, and 15 regional MPs for top-up seats. With open-list, the ballot would look like this ballot that PEI voters chose in their 2016 plebiscite. With two votes, you can vote for a regional candidate of the party you want in government. And you can also vote for the local candidate you like best regardless of party, without hurting your party, since it's the second (regional) ballot that determines the party make-up of Parliament. About 32% of voters split their ballots this way in New Zealand with a similar system. This makes it easier for local MPs to get the support of people of all political stripes. They can earn support for their constituency-representation credentials, not just for their party. This boosts the kind of support MPs bring with them into the House of Commons, thus strengthening their independence. 

(As an officer of Fair Vote Canada, I am refraining from publicly endorsing any NDP leadership candidate.)