Canada’s 83 diverse missing MPs in 2015
(Note: this post was revised and updated Oct. 28, 2016.)
Electoral reform is not a partisan
issue, as every electoral reformer knows. But some people, including some in
the media, aren’t so sure.
To show this, let’s see at least 83 missing MPs: the MPs who would have been in the House of Commons right now, if
so many of us had not cast ineffective votes. In 2015 voters for
every party were shut out in some regions, electing MPs only in their strongholds.
Of course, as Prof. Dennis Pilon says in this video: "Now keep in mind that, when you change the voting
system, you also change the incentives that affect the kinds of decisions that
voters might make. For instance, we know that, when every vote counts, voters
won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or casting a strategic vote.
Thus, we should expect that support for different parties might change."
when every vote counts, turnout will be higher -- perhaps 7% higher. So, when
voters have more choice, the results will be far more representative of our
diverse population and their diverse views. Who can say what would be the
result of real democratic elections?
more information on the mixed compensatory proportional voting system, click here.
I’ve done a simulation on the votes cast in October 2015. Of course, not every MP elected in 2015 would still be elected, but you can see how
proportional representation would instead have given each region balanced
18 or 19 missing diverse Liberal MPs
Alberta, voters cast enough Liberal votes to elect nine MPs, not just the four
who went to Ottawa. They would have elected another MP from Calgary like Matt
Grant, Nirmala Naidoo, Kerry Cundal, or Cam Stewart. Another MP from Edmonton
like Karen Leibovici or Tariq Chaudary. An MP from the north like Fort
McMurray’s Kyle Harrietha or Grande Prairie’s Reagan Johnston
. An MP from Central Alberta like Beaumont’s Jacqueline
Biollo, Hinton’s Ryan Maguhn or Chandra Kastern or Jeff Rock from Red Deer. An
MP from southern Alberta like Canmore’s Marlo Raynolds, Lethbridge’s Mike Pyne or Medicine Hat’s Glen
Saskatchewan, Liberal votes would have elected three more MPs, not just Ralph
Goodale. Two from Saskatoon and North Saskatchewan like Tracy Muggli and
indigenous leader Lawrence Joseph or Cynthia Block, and one from Regina and
South Saskatchewan like Louis Browne or Della Anaquod.
the BC Interior and North, Liberal votes would have elected two more MPs, like
Tracy Calogheros from Prince George and Metis lawyer Karley Scott from West
Kelowna or Steve Powrie from Kamloops.
Vancouver Island, one or two more Liberal MPs like Victoria lawyer David Merner
and Parksville city councillor Carrie Powell-Davidson or Campbell River’s Peter Schwarzhoff or Nanaimo’s Tim Tessier.
Manitoba outside Winnipeg, two Liberal MPs like Brandon’s Jodi Wyman and
Windsor-Sarnia two more MPs like Chatham’s Katie Omstead and Windsor’s Frank
Schiller or Sarnia’s Dave McPhail.
In the London and mid-western Ontario area one more MP like Huron’s Allan
Thompson or Lori Baldwin-Sands from St. Thomas.
West Central Ontario two more Liberal MPs like Barrie’s Brian Tamblyn and Owen
Sound’s Kimberley Love or Orillia's Liz Riley or Mike MacEachern from New
Tecumseh or Trisha Cowie from Muskoka
31 Missing diverse Conservative MPs
Toronto, Conservative voters cast enough ballots to elect six MPs like Joe
Oliver, Mark Adler, Marnie MacDougall, Bin Chang, John Carmichael and Joe Daniel or Maureen Harquail or Roxanne James.
In York Region two more
Conservative MPs like Costas Menegakis and Konstantin Toubis or
Julian Fantino or Lois Brown.
Peel and Halton Regions, four Conservative MPs like Halton's Effie Triantafilopoulos, Mississauga’s Stella Ambler and Brad
Butt, and Brampton’s Kyle Seeback.
In Ottawa-Cornwall another Conservative MP like Pierre Lemieux or Walter Pamic.
In Northern Ontario two Conservative MPs like Bryan Hayes and Greg Rickford or Jay Aspin.
Metropolitan Montreal, four Conservative MPs like Côte Saint-Luc architect
Robert Libman, Laval architect Roland Dick (of Lebanese ancestry), Longueuil’s
Afghan-born management expert Qais Hamidi, and Jonathan Lefebvre.
In Montérégie a
Conservative MP such as Réjean Léveillé.
Metro Vancouver, three more Conservative MPs like Andrew Saxton, former MLA Douglas Horne, and incumbent Wai Young or Kenny Chiu.
On Vancouver Island, one MP like John Duncan.
Nova Scotia, incumbent Scott Armstrong and one more like Arnold LeBlanc or Michael
In New Brunswick, two incumbents like Tilly
O'Neill Gordon or or Robert Goguen and John Williamson or Rob Moore.
In PEI, incumbent Gail
Shea. In Newfoundland and Labrador, one MP like former provincial cabinet minister
Kevin O'Brien. In the Yukon, Ryan Leef.
32 missing diverse NDP MPs
the GTA, NDP voters cast enough ballots to elect eight MPs like incumbents Craig
Scott, Peggy Nash, Andrew Cash, and Dan Harris, along with Oshawa’s Mary
Fowler, Brampton’s Harbaljit Singh Kahlon, Newmarket’s Yvonne Kelly, and Mississauga’s Michelle Bilek or Milton's Alex Anabusi.
Eastern Ontario, three MPs like incumbent Paul Dewar, new star Emilie Taman, and
Peterborough’s Dave Nickle. In Northern Ontario, another MP like incumbent Claude
Gravelle. In West Central Ontario, an MP like Kitchener's Susan Cadell or Waterloo’s Diane Freeman. In South Central Ontario, another MP like incumbent
Nova Scotia, two MPs like incumbent Megan Leslie and Dr. Monika Dutt. In
Newfoundland and Labrador, an MP like incumbent Jack Harris. In New Brunswick, two
MPs like Jason Godin and AJ Griffin. In PEI an MP like Joe Byrne or Herb Dickieson.
Montreal, one more MP like incumbent Maria Mourani or Isabelle Morin or James Hughes. In the rest
of Quebec, maybe six more like incumbents Annick Papillon and Raymond Côté in Quebec City, Philip Toone in the Gaspe, Hoang Mai in the Rive-sud, Pierre
Dionne Labelle in Saint-Jérôme, and Mylène Freeman in Mirabel.
In Alberta, three more
like Calgary’s Laura Weston, Cheryl Meheden from Lethbridge, and Edmonton’s Janis
Irwin. In the NWT, incumbent Dennis
Bevington. In Nunavut, former MP Jack Anawak.
Two missing Green MPs, but when their vote doubles, nine more
BC, two more Green MPs like their Finance critic Ken Melamed and Arts, Culture and Heritage Critic Jo-Ann Roberts.
With PR, the Green vote will double, they expect, and I agree. That would let Green voters elect 12 MPs, enough for official party status. In
Ontario, five Green MPs like Gord Miller from Guelph (Infrastructure and Community Development critic), Thunder Bay's Bruce Hyer (Democratic Reform critic), Kemptville's Lorraine Rekmans (Indigenous Affairs critic), Deborah Coyne from Ottawa, and Hamilton's Peter Ormond. In Manitoba, an MP like Environment & Climate Change critic Andrew Park. In BC, three more like Urban Affairs and Housing critic Wes Regan, and Arthur Green or Simmi Saminder Kaur Dhillon, and Bill Green or Chris George or Elizabeth Biggar.