If every vote counted, who would Ontario voters have elected in 2025?

Doug Ford’s PC voters cast 43.0% of the votes in Ontario’s 2025 election, but elected 64.5% of the MPPs, holding 100% of the power, a bank cheque. Proportional representation would have given them only 55 of the 124 MPPs (44.4%), assuming a threshold of 4% for a party to win seats.

If we had used province-wide proportionality the results would have been: 55 PC, 38 Lib, 24 NDP, 6 Green, and 1 independent.

But wait a minute: 24, when the NDP actually won 27? Doesn’t PR usually help the NDP? Yes, although as Thomas Mulcair explained in the 2015 campaign:
“Had the 2011 election used proportional representation, despite the NDP’s electoral gains, New Democrats would have actually had fewer seats in Parliament. Even still, we believe that democratic reform is critical to improving the health of Canada’s democracy. For New Democrats, it’s a matter of principle. Proportional representation would better represent Canadians across the country.”

In 2022 the Ontario NDP won 23.7% of the vote, but in 2025 only 18.5%. If you look at the seats the NDP actually won, you see an average turnout of 47.9%. The NDP missed winning Sault Ste. Marie by only 114 votes, with a turnout of 49.6%. But provincewide, only 45.4% of eligible voters cast ballots, 2.5% less. A lot of NDP voters stayed home where they didn’t see much chance of winning.  Voter turnout in countries with proportional representation is usually 7% or 8% higher. So the NDP’s higher turnout would give them more than the 18.5% of the vote they won, so more than 24 seats, in fact, more than the 27 seats they actually won. Looking at my simulation, NDP voters would have elected more MPPs in the three regions (out of eight) where they are now under-represented.

But the big winners would have been the Liberals. Curiously, some of them has been reluctant to support proportional representation.

Let’s see what would happen using the mixed-member proportional system (used in Germany, New Zealand and Scotland). Using eight regions, the regions would have an average of 15 MPPs each (nine local MPPs, six regional MPPs elected to top-up seats).

Open-list MMP

We’re not talking about a model with candidates appointed by central parties. We’re talking about the mixed member system designed by the Law Commission of Canada and endorsed by the Ontario NDP Convention in 2014, where every MPP represents actual voters and real communities. The majority of MPPs will be elected by local ridings as we do today, preserving the traditional link between voter and MPP. The other 40% are elected as regional MPPs, topping-up the numbers of MPPs from your local region so the total is proportional to the votes for each party.

You have two votes. One is for your local MPP. The second helps elect regional MPPs for the top-up seats. All MPPs have faced the voters. No one is guaranteed a seat. The region is small enough that the regional MPPs are accountable.

With open-list, the ballot would look like this ballot that PEI voters chose in their 2016 plebiscite. Unlike the closed-list MMP model Ontario voters did not support in 2007, you can cast a personal vote for a candidate within the regional list. This is commonly called “open list.”

Competing MPPs:

You have a local MPP who will champion your community, and about five competing regional MPPs, normally including one whose views best reflect your values, someone you helped elect in your local district or local region.

Surveys show Ontario voters support PR

More than three-in-five voters (62%) think Ontario should implement a system of proportional representation for provincial elections, up four points since 2022. What is striking about the findings this year is that voters aged 35-to-54 are more likely to desire a different system (67%) than their counterparts aged 18-to-34 (61%) and aged 55 and over (58%). In any case, we have majorities across all age groups who openly wonder whether a party should have so much control of the legislature with fewer than 50 per cent of all cast ballots.

How would regional MPPs serve residents?

See how it has worked in Scotland.

Note: this is only a simulation

In any election, as Prof. Dennis Pilon says: "Now keep in mind that, when you change the voting system, you also change the incentives that affect the kinds of decisions that voters might make. For instance, we know that, when every vote counts, voters won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or casting a strategic vote. Thus, we should expect that support for different parties might change." For this simulation I am assuming that Ontario still has only 124 MPPs.

In these local simulations, for the names of regional MPPs I use the local candidates who got the most votes in the region without winning the local seat. I expect they would be the most likely winners under open-list MMP. 

In Toronto and York’s 35 ridings, Liberal voters would have elected six more MPPs, such as Vince Gasparro (Eglinton-Lawrence), John Campbell (Etobicoke Centre), Chris Ballard (Newmarket-Aurora), Kelly Dunn (Markham-Stouffville), Holly Rasky (Toronto Centre) and April Engelberg (Spadina--Fort York). Green Party voters would have elected an MPP such as Jennifer Baron in York-Simcoe. NDP voters would have elected six MPPs. PC voters would have elected 15 MPPs.

In Peel Region’s 12 ridings, Liberal voters would have elected four or five MPPs, such as Bonnie Crombie, Elizabeth Mendes, Jill Promoli and Qasir Dar. NDP voters would have elected an MPP, such as George Nakitsas, Martin Singh or Ruby Zaman. The PCs would have elected six or seven MPPs.

In Central South’s (Hamilton--Niagara--Brantford--Halton) 15 ridings, Liberal voters would have elected four MPPs, such as Andrea Grebenc and Kaniz Mouli (Burlington), Alison Gohel (Oakville), and maybe Kristina Tesser Derksen (Milton) or Heino Doessing (Hamilton East-Stoney Creek). Green Party voters would have elected an MPP, such as Karleigh Csordas (Brantford). NDP voters would have elected three MPPs, PC voters six MPPs, and Independent Bobbi Ann Brady would have been re-elected.

In Central West’s (Waterloo--Simcoe) 14 ridings, Liberal voters would have elected four MPPs, such as Rose Zacharias (Barrie), Ted Crysler (Collingwood), Rob Deutschmann (Cambridge), and Alex Hilson (Halton Hills). NDP voters would have elected a second MPP, such as Jodi Szimanski (Wellesley Township, Waterloo Region). Green Party voters would still have elected two MPPs. PC voters would have elected six MPPs.

In Southwest Ontario’s 12 ridings, Liberal voters would have elected two MPPs, such as Douglas MacTavish (Elgin) and Cathy Burghardt-Jesson (Middlesex). Green Party voters would have elected an MPP, such as Stratford’s Ian Morton. NDP voters would have elected three MPPs, and PC voters would have elected six MPPs.

In East Central Ontario’s (Durham--Kingston) 13 ridings, Liberal voters would have elected three more MPPs, such as Peterborough’s Adam Hopkins, Whitby’s Roger Gordon, and Pickering’s Ibrahim Daniyal. NDP voters would have elected a second MPP, such as Peterborough’s Jen Deck. PC voters would have elected six MPPs.

In Ottawa-Cornwall’s 11 ridings, the results would have been very similar to the actual result.

In Northern Ontario’s 12 ridings, Liberal voters would have elected two MPPs, such as Thunder Bay’s Stephen Margarit and Algoma’s Reg Niganobe. NDP voters would have elected five MPPs, as would PC voters.

(Note: since this simulation uses eight regions, the Green party elected only five MPPs, rather than the six which provincewide proportionality would give them.)