What would Liberal respect for Canada’s political diversity look like?

Canada’s new Minister for Democratic Institutions, Maryam Monsef, was interviewed by Peter Mansbridge. He says "People want the system changed. How are you going to go about that?" She replies: "Yes, Canadians voted for real change, for a government that puts their needs ahead of the party's. A government that celebrates our diversity, and not takes a divisive approach. . . . I hope that Canadians will be proud of their politicians and their country because of the kind of work we do and the respectful manner that we go about it."

Maryam Monsef’s heart is in the right place, like many in caucus. “Sunny ways” will, I trust, include respect for Canada’s political pluralism and diversity. Including the 60.5% of Canadians who did not vote Liberal in 2015. 

Respect for those who wanted a minority government

A poll taken after the election showed just over 25% of those who voted Liberal would have preferred a minority Liberal government.

That should be no surprise. The E-day Liberal vote of 39.5% comprised the 25.7% they had pre-writ, the 12.2% picked up from the NDP support decline, and 1.6% from the Green decline. That means 35% of the Liberal E-day voters had decided during the campaign, many near the very end, that this was how to stop Harper. Some of them were originally Liberals who had decided, back before the first debate, to cast a strategic vote for the NDP, and then came home to the Liberals. But most were new strategic voters.

The day before the election, pollsters were still expecting a minority government. So were many Liberal candidates. So most new Liberal MPs know how they won.  

“We will make every vote count”

The Liberal platform on Electoral Reform began “We will make every vote count.”

Many Canadians who voted Liberal want assurance that never again will a divisive political leader win 100% of the power with 39% of the votes. And never again will voters have to vote against something, or vote for a less-preferred candidate to block the election of one even less preferred.

Only proportional representation will respect the wishes of supporters of all parties to cast votes that are not only counted, but count to elect their first choice.

Only proportional representation will make every vote count.  

Respect for unrepresented Liberals

Sure, proportional representation would let voters elect some opposition MPs in regions that are Liberal strongholds today.

But in return it will let unrepresented Liberal voters elect about 18 more MPs (at least 13), as shown below. And see Canada's 70 missing MPs.

The ranked ballot in single-member districts (IRV/AV) is a scheme for partisan advantage

The platform also said they would consider ranked ballots. Now, a ranked ballot is not a voting system; it is a ballot, which can be used in many systems. It can be used in proportional voting systems.

But the system of single-member districts using “ranked” or “preferential” ballots (Instant Runoff Voting or the Alternative Vote) still means voters are voting against something, voting for a less-preferred candidate to block the election of one even less preferred. It is still a winner-take-all system

And as Eric Grenier's really illuminating piece showed, it advantages the Liberal Party in a big way. It has been called “First-Past-The-Post on steroids.” It is obviously a scheme for partisan advantage. It is disrespectful to voters' genuine preferences. The 25% or 35% of those who voted Liberal, who voted to stop Harper, would regard it as a betrayal of the Liberal promise.

As Stephane Dion says, the preferential ballot in single-member districts alone ”does nothing to correct the distortion between votes and seats and the under-representation of national parties compared to regional ones.” It makes only half the votes count.

I cannot believe most Liberal MPs will support it. Furthermore, they are well aware how they won. They would not dare get caught in public supporting a scheme for partisan advantage.

What would respect for Canada’s political diversity look like?

Can we make every vote count, while ensuring that every Member of Parliament represents actual Canadians and Canadian communities?

Let’s look at Liberal Party voters in Canada’s diverse regions.

I am going to show two examples using a mixed-member system like the Law Commission of Canada recommendation. This is not the NDP model. Liberals know the Law Commission of Canada was an expert impartial Commission that they were proud of (and that the last government abolished). I am using it because it still has local MPs, unlike Stephane Dion's P3 model.

With any mixed-member model your second vote is for a party, and if you want to look at the list of 8 or 10 regional candidates under the party name, you can choose one if you wish. Simple but flexible, as shown in this six-minute video.

Five more Alberta Liberal MPs, on the 2015 votes on a 30-region model:

Liberal voters in the 11 ridings of Metropolitan Edmonton cast 26% of the votes, but elected only two MPs. A proportional system would have let them elect another MP like Karen Leibovici (former President of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities and former MLA) or Kenya-born Accountant Beatrice Ghettuba or former Beaumont councillor Jacqueline Biollo. The preferential ballot would likely have been no help here.

Liberal voters in the 11 ridings of Metropolitan Calgary cast 32% of the votes, but elected only two MPs. A proportional system would have let them elect two more MPs like television journalist Nirmala Naidoo and lawyer Matt Grant or lawyer Kerry Cundal, whoever got the most support from Liberal voters across Calgary. The preferential ballot would likely have been no help to Nirmala Naidoo or Kerry Cundal.

Liberal voters in the other 12 Alberta ridings cast 15% of the votes, but elected no MPs. A proportional system would have let them elect two MPs like Chandra Kastern from Red Deer (Executive Director of the Red Deer Symphony Orchestra) and General Manager of the McMurray Métis Kyle Harrietha, or Medicine Hat economics professor Glen Allan, or Hinton Councillor Ryan Maguhn. The preferential ballot would likely have been no help here.

This projection uses a mixed member model with 30 regions in the 10 provinces, of about 12 MPs each, with 38.2% of the MPs elected in regions to top-up the disproportional local results. As shown in this six-minute video. But that’s not the only option.

Moderate 42-region model

If the government prefers a more moderate model, with regional MPs more locally accountable, and a slightly higher proportion of local MPs, they might prefer a model inspired by the UK’s Jenkins Report: about 8 MPs per region in 42 regions, with 35.5% of the MPs elected in regions.

Alberta would have four smaller regions. The overall results in Alberta would be similar under either model, but Liberals outside Calgary and Edmonton would have more accountable MPs.

Liberal voters in South and Central Alberta’s nine ridings would have elected two MPs accountable to that region like Red Deer’s Chandra Kastern and Medicine Hat’s Glen Allan or Canmore’s Marlo Raynolds. Liberal voters in Northern Alberta’s six ridings would have elected an MP accountable to that region like Fort McMurray’s Kyle Harrietha or Hinton's Ryan Maguhn. The preferential ballot would likely have been no help in either of those regions.

Five more Liberal MPs from west and central Ontario

With the smaller-region model, look at the Liberal voters in the six Windsor—Sarnia ridings whose 28% of the votes elected no one. A proportional system would have let them elect two MPs like Sarnia retired principal Dave McPhail and public-relations professional Frank Schiller from Windsor, or young teacher Katie Omstead from Leamington. The preferential ballot would likely have been no help to Dave McPhail or Frank Schiller.

The Liberal voters in the nine Mid-western ridings (London—Bruce) whose 39% of the votes elected only two MPs would have elected a third MP like Owen Sound communications consultant Kimberley Love, or former St. Thomas city councillor Lori Baldwin-Sands, or journalism professor Allan Thompson from Kincardine. The preferential ballot would likely have been no help to Kimberley Love or Lori Baldwin-Sands.

The Liberal voters in the six Central Ontario ridings around Barrie whose 39% of the votes elected no one would have elected two MPs like Barrie’s former College CEO Brian Tamblyn and Orillia’s former hospital CEO Liz Riley, or aboriginal lawyer Trisha Cowie in Muskoka Lakes, or long-time Mayor of New Tecumseth Mike MacEachern.

With the larger-region model, look at the Liberal voters In the 11 ridings of southwestern Ontario whose 33% of those votes elected only two MPs. A proportional system would have let them elect two more MPs like Lori Baldwin-Sands in St. Thomas and Sarnia retired principal Dave McPhail or Leamington’s Katie Omstead. The preferential ballot would likely have been no help to Lori Baldwin-Sands or Dave McPhail.

In the 15 ridings of West Central Ontario, Liberal voters cast 42% of the ballots, while Conservative voters cast only 41%. Yet the region’s 15 MPs are ten Conservatives and only five Liberals, all men. A proportional system would have let voters in that region elect six Liberal MPs. Liberal voters might have elected Orillia’s Liz Riley, Muskoka’s Trisha Cowie, or Owen Sound’s Kimberley Love.

Four more BC MPs outside the Lower Mainland

In BC’s Interior and North, Liberal voters cast 19% of the votes but elected only one of the nine MPs.  A proportional system would have let them elect two more MPs like Metis lawyer Karley Scott from West Kelowna and CEO Tracy Calogheros from Prince George, or Salmon Arm lawyer Cindy Derkaz, or Kamloops teacher Steve Powrie.

On Vancouver Island, Liberal voters cast 21% of the votes but elected none of the nine MPs. A proportional system would have let them elect two MPs like lawyer David Merner from Victoria and Councillor Carrie Powell-Davidson from the City of Parksville, or Nanaimo Business Consultant Tim Tessier. The preferential ballot would likely have been no help here.

Two more Saskatchewan MPs

In Saskatchewan, with the smaller region model, Liberal voters in the six ridings of South Saskatchewan cast 26% of the votes and would have elected (in addition to Ralph Goodale) a regional MP accountable to that region like respected Indigenous academic, public administrator, and legal expert Della Anaquod in Regina, or Regina councillor Louis Browne. The preferential ballot would likely have been no help here.

Liberal voters in the eight ridings of North Saskatchewan, who cast 22% of those votes, would have elected a regional MP accountable to that region like Saskatoon’s Tracy Muggli (Director of Mental Health and Addiction Services) or aboriginal leader Lawrence Joseph from Prince Albert. The preferential ballot would likely have been no help to Tracy Muggli.

With the larger-region model the overall outcome would be the same. Liberal voters cast 24% of the votes but elected only one of the 14 MPs. A proportional system would have let them elect two more MPs such as Tracy Muggli and Della Anaquod or Lawrence Joseph.

Two more Manitoba MPs outside Winnipeg.   

With the smaller region model, the Liberal voters who cast 33% of the votes outside Winnipeg but elected none of those six MPs would have elected two MPs like Brandon lawyer Jodi Wyman and aboriginal educator Rebecca Chartrand or Springfield agriculture expert Terry Hayward or TV journalist Joanne Levy from Rockwood or former RCMP officer Ray Piché. The preferential ballot would likely have been no help to Jodi Wyman, Rebecca Chartrand, Terry Hayward or Joanne Levy.

No more strategic voting

The biggest result of using PR would be to end strategic voting, and to let every voter help elect an MP representing his or her first choice of views. In some ridings in BC and elswhere, Liberal voters had to vote NDP to stop Harper. They know how NDP supporters felt in the rest of Canada. 

The other big result would be to end the parade of strongholds. Only an electoral system featuring proportionality will end the magnification of our regional differences rather than highlighting our common ground

Once our voting system respects Canada’s political diversity, it’s all up to the voters to decide, as it shouold be.

How would regional MPs represent constituents?

Regional MPs would cover several ridings each. Just the way it’s done in Scotland. They would have several constituency offices, just as MP Bob Zimmer had three.    

Design options

Please note that there are many design options for designing a mixed-member proportional system.

Fair Vote Canada supports only models that ensure all MPs have faced the voters (for example, no closed lists.)

Many Canadians want a simple, easy to understand ballot.

The Scottish ballot, vote for local MP and for a party, qualifies.

But many people hate closed party lists.

How to square the circle?

Well, one example of how to do it is the Law Commission of Canada recommendation: your second vote is for a party, and if you want to look at the list of 8 or 10 regional candidates under the party name, you can choose one if you wish.

Page 105 of the Law Commission Report said:

"Based on the feedback received during our consultation process, many Canadian voters would also most likely desire the flexibility of open lists in a mixed member proportional system. In essence, allowing voters to choose a candidate from the list provides voters with the ability to select a specific individual and hold them accountable for their actions should they be elected."

And page 109:

"We believe that a flexible list system represents a reasonable compromise for the Canadian context. Elections Canada or other government body should therefore develop a methodology for determining which candidate or candidates should be awarded each list seat. Implementing a flexible list would send a signal to voters about their primacy in the process of determining who gets elected. It would also support voters who decide to trust a political party’s choice of list candidates by allowing them to vote for the party slate.

Therefore:

Recommendation 5:

Within the context of a mixed member proportional system, Parliament should adopt a flexible list system that provides voters with the option of either endorsing the party “slate” or “ticket,” or of indicating a preference for a candidate within the list."

This all satisfies Fair Vote Canada's principles:

"Positive voter choice: We need fair and unrestricted competition among political parties presenting democratically-nominated candidates. A democratic voting system must encourage citizens to exercise positive choice by voting for the candidate or party they prefer. They should not find it necessary to embrace negative or strategic voting – to vote for a less-preferred candidate to block the election of one even less preferred. Never should citizens be denied representation simply because their preferred candidate cannot win a single-member riding."