Nova Scotia voters elected a diverse legislature this week – but not as diverse as they deserved.
Tim Houston’s huge majority PC government got 43 of the 55
seats, with 78% of the MLAs, based on only 52.8% of the votes. The new
opposition leader, Claudia Chender, leads an NDP caucus with nine MLAs, featuring
seven women, including two newly elected women and two newly elected men, eight
from Halifax, and one from Cape Breton. The decimated Liberals dropped from 17
MLAs to only two, one in Halifax, one in Cape Breton.
As Nova Scotia’s 2019
Boundary Commission report recommended:
“Recommendation 8: Although it is outside our mandate, we respectfully
recommend that future governments consider consulting the public and elections
experts about whether a proportional system would achieve more effective
representation than our current single-member plurality (first past the post)
system.”
Nova Scotia is more than just Halifax and Cape Breton.
In the 14 ridings of southwest Nova Scotia, including Kentville
and Wolfville (home of Acadia University in Kings County), Bridgewater and
Yarmouth, Liberal voters cast 26.7% of the votes. Under the Mixed Member Proportional
system they would have elected four MLAs. Their four best runners-up were
leader Zach Churchill in Yarmouth, incumbent MLA Carman Kerr in Annapolis County,
incumbent MLA Ronnie LeBlanc in Clare, and Brian Casey, a West Hants farmer. NDP
voters cast 13.1% of the votes and would have elected two MLAs: their best
runners-up were former cabinet minister Ramona Jennex in Kings County and Kentville
Town Councillor Gillian Yorke.
In the 11 ridings of Nova Scotia’s North Shore (Truro, New
Glasgow, and Amherst), NDP voters cast 14.1% of the votes and would have
elected two MLAs: their best runners-up were former local journalist Abby
Cameron in Hants East and two-time candidate Janet Moulton in Musquodoboit
Valley. Liberal voters cast 13.9% of the votes and would have elected two MLAs:
their best runners-up were retired nurse Sheila Sears in Antigonish and New
Glasgow musician Kris MacFarlane.
In the 22 Halifax ridings, Liberal voters cast 23.6% of the
votes and would have elected four more MLAs. Their best runners-up were former
Liberal cabinet ministers Patricia Arab and Ben Jessome, and MLAs Braedon Clark
and Ali Duale.
In the eight ridings of Cape Breton, Liberal voters cast 25.1% of the votes and would have elected a second MLA. Their best runner-up was Jamie Beaton, born and raised in Inverness.
This assumes the Mixed Member Proportional system used in
Germany, New Zealand, Scotland, and others. Usually it would still have 56 or 60
percent of the MLAs elected from local ridings. With the model recommended by the Law Commission of Canada, using the
ballot PEI voters supported in their 2016 plebiscite, you have two votes, one for your local MLA, and one for the
party you support. Your second vote helps elect regional MLAs for top-up seats.
In New Zealand, about 31% of voters vote for a local candidate of a different
party than their party vote, giving local MPs an independent base of support.
Of course, this is only a simulation. In any election, as Prof. Dennis Pilon says: "Now keep in mind that, when you change the voting system, you also change the incentives that affect the kinds of decisions that voters might make. For instance, we know that, when every vote counts, voters won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or casting a strategic vote. Thus, we should expect that support for different parties might change."
