First-past-the-Post gave Newfoundland and Labrador a false-majority government

First-past-the-Post gave Newfoundland and Labrador a false-majority government this year. Their PCs got 21 of the 40 seats in the House of Assembly with only 44.4 % of the votes. The CBC noted “Their win sets a new benchmark in this province for forming a majority government with the smallest vote share."

Liberal voters cast 43.4 % of the votes, which would have entitled them, proportionally, to elect 17 of the 40 MHAs, while PC voters would have elected 18 MHAs. NDP voters cast 8.3% of the votes, which would have elected 3 MHAs. The two incumbent independents got enough votes to be re-elected locally, which the Mixed Member Proportional system would very likely have permitted.

Who would have formed the government? The Liberals 17 plus the NDP’s 3 seats needed support from one independent. Eddie Joyce, who got 72% of the local vote, had been a Liberal cabinet minister until kicked out of the Liberal caucus for breaking the code of conduct by lobbying. Paul Lane, who got 57% of the local vote, had originally been elected as a PC, then switched to the Liberals, then left them and was elected three times as an independent. The PCs 18 would have needed support from the NDP, unlikely.

But would the NDP have gotten more votes if voters knew every vote would count? They held St. John’s Centre, and picked up St. John's East-Quidi Vidi which the NDP had won in 2 of the last 3 elections, and their candidate was a long-time member of St. John’s municipal council and twice elected Deputy Mayor. Their third-strongest candidate in St. John’s, a strong third, was Nicole Boland, a Registered Social Worker with a Master’s degree in Social Work. She got 25.4% of the vote, and if the NDP deserved a third MHA in St. John’s, she looks like it.

Metropolitan St. John.s has 212,579 residents, or including the whole Avalon Peninsula, 270,348 residents, compared to the provincial total of 510,550.

Newfoundland’s 40 MHAs include 18 from St. John’s and the Avalon peninsula. In that region Liberal voters cast 46.2% of the vote, the PC’s 37.1%, and the NDP 12.6%. Those PCs elected only 6 MHAs in that region, but deserved 7. Perhaps they would have elected Rhonda Power who got 41.5% of the vote in Placentia - St. Mary's, losing by only 502 votes.

However, in the rest of Newfoundland and Labrador, PC voters cast 52.6% of the votes yet elected 15 MHAs, while the Liberals’ 39.8% elected only 6 MHAs, and NDP voters 3.9% elected no one. In that region proportional representation would have elected 9 Liberals, one New Democrat, 11 PCs, and Eddie Joyce. The NDP candidate in Labrador West, Shazia Razi, NDP, got 13.4%, hoping to succeed previous NDP MNA Jordan Brown who became mayor of Labrador City. Also prominent was Corner Brook NDP candidate Jean Graham, active in her union, the District Labour Council, and the Newfoundland-Labrador Human Rights Association, who got 8.6% of the vote there. Three more Liberals might have included incumbent MHAs Derek Bennett, Speaker in the last House, who lost by only 18 votes; and Krista Howell, Minister of Health and Community Services, who lost by only 595 votes; plus perhaps Mark Lamswood (nominated to replace Minister of Environment and Climate Change Scott Reid, who got 45.3%), or Helen Reid (nominated to replace outgoing Premier Andrew Furey, who got 42.6%).

How many NDP and Liberal MPs should Alberta have

In Heather McPherson’s campaign launch she said Blake Desjarlais should be a Member of Parliament today, and Trisha Estabrooks, and so many others should be Members of Parliament.

Of course, strategic voting to stop Trump took many votes from the NDP. But even if the NDP had gotten the votes it got in 2021, in Alberta First Past The Post would have elected only Heather and Blake. We need to talk about the Mixed Member Proportional system the NDP promises to introduce.

On the votes cast in 2021, transposed to the 2025 ridings, in the 12 ridings of Metropolitan Edmonton the NDP got 28.6% of the vote, and the Liberals 18.9%. With a regional MMP model the NDP would indeed have elected Heather, Blake, and Trisha, and maybe even Dot Anderson. The Liberals would have elected Eleanor Olszewski and Amarjeet Sohi.

But that’s not all. In the 12 ridings of Metropolitan Calgary the NDP’s 16.6% would have elected candidates like Keira Gunn and Becki Zimmerman, while the Liberals would have elected Corey Hogan, George Chahal and Lindsay Luhnau.

In the 8 ridings of South-Central Alberta the NDP’s 15.5% would have elected Nathan Svoboda, while the Liberals would have elected Chris Spearman.

And in the 5 ridings of Northern Alberta, the NDP’s 14.9% would have elected someone like Landen Tischer. Total out of 37: 7 or 8 NDP, 6 Liberals.

Alberta sends 37 MPs to Ottawa. That`s 10.8 per cent of the MPs. They might expect three members of a 30-member cabinet. But they elected only two Liberal MPs, due to First-Past-The-Post: Corey Hogan and Eleanor Olszewski. 

With the Mixed Member Proportional system. Alberta would elect 22 local MPs, and 15 regional MPs for top-up seats. With open-list, the ballot would look like this ballot that PEI voters chose in their 2016 plebiscite. With two votes, you can vote for a regional candidate of the party you want in government. And you can also vote for the local candidate you like best regardless of party, without hurting your party, since it's the second (regional) ballot that determines the party make-up of Parliament. About 32% of voters split their ballots this way in New Zealand with a similar system. This makes it easier for local MPs to get the support of people of all political stripes. They can earn support for their constituency-representation credentials, not just for their party. This boosts the kind of support MPs bring with them into the House of Commons, thus strengthening their independence. 

(As an officer of Fair Vote Canada, I am refraining from publicly endorsing any NDP leadership candidate.)