Is Alberta being heard in Ottawa?

Competing Alberta groups complain they are not being heard in Ottawa. Of course, the underlying problem is, many of them are right. If every vote counted, they would all be heard.

In 2025 Alberta voters elected 37 MPs. Counting voters for parties that won at least 5% of Alberta votes, if every vote counted they would have elected 11 Liberal MPs not just two, two NDP MPs not just one, and 24 Conservative MPs rather than 34.

In 2021 Alberta voters elected 34 MPs. If every vote counted, they would have elected five Liberal MPs not just two, seven NDP MPs not just two, three Peoples Party MPs rather than zero, and 19 Conservative MPs rather than 30.

In 2025 Metro Calgary’s 12 MPs would have included four Liberals, not just Corey Hogan, with three top-up MPs from Calgary, the Liberal candidates who got the most votes.  Similarly, Metro Edmonton’s 12 MPs would have included four Liberals, not just Eleanor Olszewski, with three top-up MPs from Edmonton, the Liberal candidates who got the most votes. Southern Alberta’s seven MPs would have included two regional Liberal MPs from top-up seats, just as Northern Alberta’s six MPs would have included a regional top-up Liberal MP. And NDP voters would have elected a second NDP MP, maybe Keira Gunn from Calgary.

Alberta should have three cabinet ministers in a 30-member cabinet, not just one. With 11 Liberal MPs from Alberta, they could have had three cabinet members.

In 2021 Metro Calgary’s 11 MPs would have included two Liberals, not just George Chahal, with a regional top-up MP. Metro Edmonton’s 11 MPs would have included two Liberals, not just Randy Boissonnault, with a regional top-up MP. Southern Alberta’s 6 MPs would have included a Liberal regional MP like Devon Hargreaves from Lethbridge. The NDP did better in 2021, so Metro Edmonton NDP voters would have elected one regional top-up MP as well as Heather McPherson and Blake Desjarlais, while NDP voters in Metro Calgary would have elected two regional MPs, plus one in Southern Alberta and one In Northern Alberta. The Peoples Party of Canada got 7.3% of the Alberta votes in 2021, giving them one Calgary MP such as Jonathan Hagel, one Edmonton MP such as Murray MacKinnon, and one from Northen Alberta such as Michael Manchen.

A national poll of Canadians asking about support for proportional representation was conducted by EKOS Research Associates between January 22-29, 2025. 68% of Canadians support moving to proportional representation, with only 19% opposed and 13% unsure.

At an event during the last election, Mark Carney explained that electoral reform was not in the Liberal platform because they are focused on addressing the economic crisis, but suggested that they may pursue a process for electoral reform after the economic crisis had abated.

This simulation uses the Mixed Member Proportional system that was recommended by the Law Commission of Canada. As Prof. Dennis Pilon says: "We know that, when every vote counts, voters won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or casting a strategic vote. Thus, we should expect that support for different parties might change.” With open-list, the ballot would look like this ballot that PEI voters chose in their 2016 plebiscite. With two votes, you can vote for a candidate of the party you want in government. And you can also vote for the local candidate you like best regardless of party, without hurting your party, since it's the second (regional) ballot that determines the party make-up of Parliament. About 32% of voters split their ballots this way in New Zealand with a similar system. This makes it easier for local MPs to get the support of people of all political stripes. They can earn support for their constituency-representation credentials, not just for their party. This boosts the kind of support MPs bring with them into the House of Commons, thus strengthening their independence. This is the system used in Germany and, with regions like Canada would want, in Scotland.

Who should design an electoral system? A Citizens Assembly on Electoral Reform could do an impartial job of designing a PR system, if they are asked to.

What would an election in Canada today give us under proportional representation?

What would an election in Canada today give us under proportional representation?

On current Canadian polls the Conservative vote has dropped from 41.3% last April to 36.6%, the NDP vote has partly recovered from 6.3% to 10.2%, the Liberal vote has declined from 43.8% to 39.9%, the Bloc vote has climbed from 6.3% to 7.6%, and the Green vote has recovered from 1.2% to 3.3%.

If Canada had proportional representation, adjusting the numbers of votes cast in April by current polls (assuming nation-wide swings), Liberal voters would have elected 142 MPs, Conservatives 130 MPs, New Democrats 38 MPs, Bloc voters 26 MPs, and Green voters 7 MPs. (I am using a model calculated with province-wide proportionality but with regional representation in regions averaging 23 MPs in the four larger provinces; not large enough to elect any People’s Party candidates.)

I have already posted a report on the outcome of the 2025 election on the votes as cast with proportional representation. It showed 40% top-up MPs was enough for fully proportional results.

With 343 MPs, a bill needs 172 votes to pass, so the Liberals would need to work with the 38 NDP MPs (or else with a combination of Bloc and Green MPs), unlike the current House of Commons where the Bloc has a veto, since every bill must go through a Standing Committee where a Bloc member holds the balance of power.

Even with fewer votes by current polls, the Liberal caucus would be more representative than today: 10 MPs from Alberta not just 2, 4 MPs from Saskatchewan not just 1, 9 MPs from Southwest Ontario not just 5, 6 from Northern and Central Ontario not just 5, and 8 from Eastern and Central Quebec not just 6. Similarly, the Conservative caucus would be more representative than today: 6 MPs from Montréal-Laval-Montérégie not zero, 3 MPs from Mauricie-Lanaudière-Laurentides-nord-ouest not zero, 13 MPs from Toronto and York not just 9, 4 MPs from Nova Scotia not just 1, 2 MPs from PEI not zero, and 9 MPs from the BC Lower Mainland not just 7.

The NDP would elect 10 MPs from Ontario, 9 from BC, 6 from Quebec, 4 from Alberta, 3 from Manitoba, 2 from Saskatchewan, 1 from New Brunswick, 1 from Nova Scotia, and 1 from Newfoundland and Labrador.

My calculation assumes the conventional Mixed Member Proportional model supported by the NDP ever since its 2003 convention when, to the amazement of the media, in the middle of electing Jack Layton as leader the delegates debated proportional representation on the convention floor and adopted an amendment to set a threshold of 5% for parties to elect some regional MPs to top-up seats, while still electing the majority of MPs from local ridings. With 60% local MPs, a group of five local ridings would become three larger ridings. (My current calculation assumes no legal threshold, since regions averaging 23 MPs, would normally exclude such smaller parties. The Green Party would still elect 4 MPs in Ontario and 3 in BC.)

At an event during the last election, Mark Carney explained that electoral reform was not in the Liberal platform because they are focused on addressing the economic crisis, but suggested that they may pursue a process for electoral reform after the economic crisis had abated. The last Liberal Convention adopted a resolution ”that the Liberal Party of Canada urge the Government of Canada to establish a non-partisan National Citizens’ Assembly on Electoral Reform to continue the work started in 2014.”.

The NDP PR Policy as amended at the 2013 convention in 2023:

New Democrats believe in:
a          Reforming Canada’s electoral system through mixed member proportional representation.
b          Prioritizing electoral reform based on a citizens’ consensus for change and a transparent parliamentary committee process to convene a citizens’ assembly on electoral reform. 

The Mixed Member Proportional system was recommended by the Law Commission of Canada. As Prof. Dennis Pilon says: "We know that, when every vote counts, voters won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or casting a strategic vote. Thus, we should expect that support for different parties might change.” With open-list, the ballot would look like this ballot that PEI voters chose in their 2016 plebiscite. With two votes, you can vote for the party you want in government. And you can also vote for the local candidate you like best regardless of party, without hurting your party, since it's the second (regional) ballot that determines the party make-up of Parliament. About 32% of voters split their ballots this way in New Zealand with a similar system. This makes it easier for local MPs to get the support of people of all political stripes. They can earn support for their constituency-representation credentials, not just for their party. This boosts the kind of support MPs bring with them into the House of Commons, thus strengthening their independence. This is the system used in Germany and, with regions like Canada would want, in Scotland.