What would an election in Canada today give us under proportional representation?

What would an election in Canada today give us under proportional representation?

On current Canadian polls the Conservative vote has dropped from 41.3% last April to 36.6%, the NDP vote has partly recovered from 6.3% to 10.2%, the Liberal vote has declined from 43.8% to 39.9%, the Bloc vote has climbed from 6.3% to 7.6%, and the Green vote has recovered from 1.2% to 3.3%.

If Canada had proportional representation, adjusting the numbers of votes cast in April by current polls (assuming nation-wide swings), Liberal voters would have elected 142 MPs, Conservatives 130 MPs, New Democrats 38 MPs, Bloc voters 26 MPs, and Green voters 7 MPs. (I am using a model calculated with province-wide proportionality but with regional representation in regions averaging 23 MPs in the four larger provinces; not large enough to elect any People’s Party candidates.)

I have already posted a report on the outcome of the 2025 election on the votes as cast with proportional representation. It showed 40% top-up MPs was enough for fully proportional results.

With 343 MPs, a bill needs 172 votes to pass, so the Liberals would need to work with the 38 NDP MPs (or else with a combination of Bloc and Green MPs), unlike the current House of Commons where the Bloc has a veto.

Even with fewer votes by current polls, the Liberal caucus would be more representative than today: 10 MPs from Alberta not just 2, 4 MPs from Saskatchewan not just 1, 9 MPs from Southwest Ontario not just 5, and 6 from Northern and Central Ontario not just 5.

The NDP would elect 10 MPs from Ontario, 9 from BC, 6 from Quebec, 4 from Alberta, 3 from Manitoba, 2 from Saskatchewan, 1 from New Brunswick, 1 from Nova Scotia, and 1 from Newfoundland and Labrador.

My calculation assumes the conventional Mixed Member Proportional model supported by the NDP ever since its 2003 convention when, to the amazement of the media, in the middle of electing Jack Layton as leader the delegates debated proportional representation on the convention floor and adopted an amendment to set a threshold of 5% for parties to elect some regional MPs to top-up seats, while still elected the majority of MPs from local ridings. With 60% local MPs, a group of five local ridings would become three larger ridings. (My current calculation assumes no legal threshold, since regions averaging 23 MPs, would normally exclude such smaller parties. The Green Party would still elect 4 MPs in Ontario and 3 in BC.)

At an event during the last election, Mark Carney explained that electoral reform was not in the Liberal platform because they are focused on addressing the economic crisis, but suggested that they may pursue a process for electoral reform after the economic crisis had abated. The last Liberal Convention adopted a resolution ”that the Liberal Party of Canada urge the Government of Canada to establish a non-partisan National Citizens’ Assembly on Electoral Reform to continue the work started in 2014.”.

I assume the Mixed Member Proportional system. This was recommended by the Law Commission of Canada. As Prof. Dennis Pilon says: "We know that, when every vote counts, voters won't have to worry about splitting the vote, or casting a strategic vote. Thus, we should expect that support for different parties might change.” With open-list, the ballot would look like this ballot that PEI voters chose in their 2016 plebiscite. With two votes, you can vote for the party you want in government. And you can also vote for the local candidate you like best regardless of party, without hurting your party, since it's the second (regional) ballot that determines the party make-up of Parliament. About 32% of voters split their ballots this way in New Zealand with a similar system. This makes it easier for local MPs to get the support of people of all political stripes. They can earn support for their constituency-representation credentials, not just for their party. This boosts the kind of support MPs bring with them into the House of Commons, thus strengthening their independence. This is the system used in Germany and, with regions like Canada would want, in Scotland.