First-past-the-Post gave Newfoundland and Labrador a false-majority government

First-past-the-Post gave Newfoundland and Labrador a false-majority government this year. Their PCs got 21 of the 40 seats in the House of Assembly with only 44.4 % of the votes. The CBC noted “Their win sets a new benchmark in this province for forming a majority government with the smallest vote share."

Liberal voters cast 43.4 % of the votes, which would have entitled them, proportionally, to elect 17 of the 40 MHAs, while PC voters would have elected 18 MHAs. NDP voters cast 8.3% of the votes, which would have elected 3 MHAs. The two incumbent independents got enough votes to be re-elected locally, which the Mixed Member Proportional system would very likely have permitted.

Who would have formed the government? The Liberals 17 plus the NDP’s 3 seats needed support from one independent. Eddie Joyce, who got 72% of the local vote, had been a Liberal cabinet minister until kicked out of the Liberal caucus for breaking the code of conduct by lobbying. Paul Lane, who got 57% of the local vote, had originally been elected as a PC, then switched to the Liberals, then left them and was elected three times as an independent. The PCs 18 would have needed support from the NDP, unlikely.

But would the NDP have gotten more votes if voters knew every vote would count? They held St. John’s Centre, and picked up St. John's East-Quidi Vidi which the NDP had won in 2 of the last 3 elections, and their candidate was a long-time member of St. John’s municipal council and twice elected Deputy Mayor. Their third-strongest candidate in St. John’s, a strong third, was Nicole Boland, a Registered Social Worker with a Master’s degree in Social Work. She got 25.4% of the vote, and if the NDP deserved a third MHA in St. John’s, she looks like it.

Metropolitan St. John.s has 212,579 residents, or including the whole Avalon Peninsula, 270,348 residents, compared to the provincial total of 510,550.

Newfoundland’s 40 MHAs include 18 from St. John’s and the Avalon peninsula. In that region Liberal voters cast 46.2% of the vote, the PC’s 37.1%, and the NDP 12.6%. Those PCs elected only 6 MHAs in that region, but deserved 7. Perhaps they would have elected Rhonda Power who got 41.5% of the vote in Placentia - St. Mary's, losing by only 502 votes.

However, in the rest of Newfoundland and Labrador, PC voters cast 52.6% of the votes yet elected 15 MHAs, while the Liberals’ 39.8% elected only 6 MHAs, and NDP voters 3.9% elected no one. In that region proportional representation would have elected 9 Liberals, one New Democrat, 11 PCs, and Eddie Joyce. The NDP candidate in Labrador West, Shazia Razi, NDP, got 13.4%, hoping to succeed previous NDP MNA Jordan Brown who became mayor of Labrador City. Also prominent was Corner Brook NDP candidate Jean Graham, active in her union, the District Labour Council, and the Newfoundland-Labrador Human Rights Association, who got 8.6% of the vote there. Three more Liberals might have included incumbent MHAs Derek Bennett, Speaker in the last House, who lost by only 18 votes; and Krista Howell, Minister of Health and Community Services, who lost by only 595 votes; plus perhaps Mark Lamswood (nominated to replace Minister of Environment and Climate Change Scott Reid, who got 45.3%), or Helen Reid (nominated to replace outgoing Premier Andrew Furey, who got 42.6%).